Mike's Mets - Some *Fearless* Predictions for the Season

 

Hey, this prediction
business is tough!

By Mike Steffanos

When I began writing yesterday's post, my intent was that it would be my season preview piece. After all, this is the time of year, with Opening Day approaching this week, when these pieces are supposed to be written. While you can never predict what injuries might crop up, you usually have a pretty good idea of how most of the players on your team are going to perform. This year really is different, however. There are a lot of variables in play, including some limited data for key performers. It led me to write a season preview that was relatively light in actual prediction. It also makes this New York Mets club a little more fascinating as we approach Thursday's season opener.

Despite the uncertainties heading into the season, I'm very optimistic about the Mets this year. I really believe that they're going to be right around that 90-win threshold. But when it comes down to predicting exactly how this will happen, I don't have a really clear picture. Beyond Jacob deGrom, who, if healthy, will undoubtedly be transcendent, it's a little harder to pin down exactly how I think others will perform. There are so many questions surrounding key players on the team.

Take Francisco Lindor, for instance. You can expect above-average offense for the position, and his defense should be top-notch. Exactly what Lindor's offensive contribution will be, however, is at least questionable. Some of Lindor's value as a hitter was tied to his home run output, and that's liable to drop off a bit with the deadened baseball. I'm not sure that a 30+ home run total is something we should expect from the guy, given the change to the baseball and Lindor playing his home games in Citi Field. It depends on how he adjusts to those changes and playing in a tougher division than the AL Central. My bet would be he will make those adjustments and provide real value as a hitter with somewhat lesser home run totals.

Michael Conforto is another key player for the Mets this season. I don't think anyone expects Conforto to hit .322 again like he did in last year's 60-game sprint. Michael also put up a 153 OPS+, which was the best of his career. Hitting that number again would make him one of the game's best hitters, albeit a level below the absolute superstars of the game.

The question about Conforto is whether last year was at least somewhat of a small sample size fluke. People who believe that will point to 2018 and 2019 when Conforto slashed a combined .250/.356/.471 for an OPS+ of 125. For a corner outfielder, those are productive numbers, but nothing outstanding. I tend to look at Michael's 2017 season when, as a 24-year-old, he slashed .279/.384/.555 for an OPS+ of 148. Conforto went down in September of that year with that terrible dislocated shoulder while swinging in a game. At the time, I thought he was poised to become the star that he looked like in 2020.

I thought Michael Conforto really struggled to get his swing back in that intervening pair of seasons. I also thought that the Conforto we saw in 2020 looked an awful lot like the pre-shoulder injury player. So, while I don't expect a .300+ batting average, I think a batting line similar to the .279/.384/.555 from 2017 is a very reasonable expectation.

Trying to predict how it will go for Jeff McNeil this year is a little trickier. I don't know why, but it feels like McNeil has been a Met for a long time. Maybe it's because he's a bit older than most guys heading into their fourth MLB campaign, turning 29 a week after the season starts. Thanks to a mid-season call-up in 2018 and last year's truncated schedule, McNeil only has amassed a bit over 1,000 plate appearances in the big leagues. He's consistently put up strong offensive numbers, but the way he's done it has been a bit inconsistent.

McNeil hit an outstanding .329 in 2018, coming up to the Mets in late July. In the first half of 2019, he hit .349/.409/.509 with 7 HR, then hit 16 HR in the second half while slashing .276/.353/.561. Last year he got off to a rough start, hitting .258 in August, but rebounded to a .356 average in the final month. This year he is enduring an absolutely brutal spring training, with only 4 hits in 36 AB through yesterday. He's looked lost at the plate the few times I've been able to watch him, although he's been hitting some balls hard lately. It's concerning, but after decades of watching the Mets, I've seen plenty of examples of guys who couldn't hit a lick in camp and then were fine once the season started — and visa versa, also. If he still is scuffling like this in April, then it becomes important.

Some people I respect are pessimistic about McNeil. Others really like him. I'm a fan. I always appreciate scrappy players with talent. I also like his bat-to-ball skills in a game that features way too much swing and miss. I believe that he is as natural of a .300 hitter as anyone on the roster. Even in his minor league career, he was consistently over that mark. In Double-A and Triple-A, the two highest levels, he averaged .315 and .327, respectively. Lack of power and trouble staying healthy limited his prospect stock early on; there was never any doubt that he could hit.

I find it interesting that McNeil has a track record of hitting .300+, but Baseball Reference projects him to hit .298 this year, and the various forecasting systems at FanGraphs have him in the .277 - .297 range. The skepticism is likely based on a relatively small MLB track record and how difficult it is to hit over .300 in MLB.

McNeil is a better defender at second base than late-career Robinson Cano, but nobody expects Jeff to win a Golden Glove. I think he benefits from playing mostly one position and playing next to Lindor and provides the Mets with adequate defense. I don't expect Jeff to hit 20+ home runs this season with the de-juiced balls. I expect him to hit over .300 and establish himself as a legit contender for a batting title. However, if I'm wrong and McNeil hits .280, I would expect him to lose time to Luis Guillorme and possibly Jonathan Villar. Guillorme, in particular, can make a case for himself if he produces offensively in 2021. His defensive value is well-established.

Continue reading by clicking here.