New York Mets: 2021 Predictions
I'll lay out the bottom line first: Because I am both a Mets fan and an unrelenting optimist, the Mets will win the World Series in 2021.
The detail:
The Mets will win the toughest division in baseball with a 90 - 72 record. The Nationals and Braves will tie for second at 85 -78, with the Phillies and Marlins vying for fourth. The Marlins young pitching will enable them to overtake Philly.
They'll get past the Padres (NL West winner), Cardinals (NL Central winner), and Dodgers (WC) to get to the World Series. The Dodgers will beat the Braves in the wild card game. The Mets will have the pitching to get through the playoffs.
Individual player thoughts: detail stats are not considered for this piece
First the pitchers
Jacob deGrom will win his third Cy Young award in four years.
Noah Syndergaard will come back strong in the second half (be patient for a few rough starts before the All-Star break as he gets back on the mound and gets his feel back). He will be the key to the post season run.
Marcus Stroman will continue to show his confidence and get the results all year. He will get a Cy Young vote or two.
Taijuan Walker will neither 'wow' us nor disappoint us. He will be slightly better than a league average pitcher, laying the foundation for the 'wow' starting in 2022 .
Carlos Carrasco will come back from injury later than most people want, then start slowly, but finish well. He will be another weapon for the playoffs.
David Peterson, Joey Lucchesi, and Jordan Yamamoto will all make multiple starts this year and capably hold down the 4th and 5th slots in the rotation until Carrasco and Syndegaard return.
They will not need to trade for starting pitching at the deadline.
The bullpen will be quite good, with Edwin Diaz being the Diaz of 2018. Trevor May will be solid, Miguel Castro will make everyone forget Kevin Smith and even Jeurys Familia will finish with good end results, but sometimes maddening adventures.
Dellin Betances will not make the club out of spring training and will end up being released.
Seth Lugo will come back and struggle (by his standards) for a while before he rights the ship.
There will be several other arms rotating throughout the year. I look for good things from DrewSmith, Stephen Tarpley, and Daniel Zamora.
I don't see Robert Gsellman having a role with this team in 2021..
Now the hitters: the good news first:
Pete Alonso will have a very good year.
James McCann will prove to be a very solid signing, both as a receiver and with the bat.
Francisco Lindor will love playing in New York and will have a very fine year.
Michael Conforto's batting average on balls in play will not be .412 in 2021. He'll regress slightly, but be a very solid right fielder all year.
The bench will be a very strong set, both in starting occasional games and also in pinch-hitting and defensive replacement roles.
The hitters: the not quite as sunny a forecast:
I am not bullish on Jeff McNeil in 2021. I can see him losing playing time to Luis Guillorme as his bat does not show the same magic that he has had since his call-up in 2018.
Brandon Nimmo will be "OK" to "quite surprising" in center field, but will disappoint with the bat to some degree. He will still put up an OBP of .340 or better, but much of that will be walks. He'll struggle to find his complete offensive game.
J.D. Davis: This is the toughest pick. I'll call it a 'league average' year coming.
Dom Smith will again show that he is a very good major league hitter and a very poor major league left fielder. His offense will keep him in the line-up.
Other:
Luis Rojas will do a much better game management job than he showed in 2020.
This team has the potential to score a lot of runs, perhaps greater than 800 over the 162 game season.
The team ERA will be under 3.50.
The team character will help take this team to the next level.
They will avoid their June swoon that plagued them in both 2018 and 2019.
4 comments:
Excellent analysis. As a resident optimist here for years, I agree with your projections.
My 2 candidates for breakout performances this year are Castro and Guillorme. The former will be an excellent setup man and part-time closer, while the latter will play a lot of games at 2B and 3B, and could end up as the regular player at either position.
In the "small sample" category, both JDD and Dom have looked much improved so far, and could be "average" with the glove by year end.
Thanks Bill. I agree with you about Castro. I think he is going to be very good very soon. I also agree with your comments about Guillorme.
A couple of sleeper candidates for bigger roles than anticipated on March 27: Pitchers: Drew Smith and Daniel Zamora; Outfield: Drew Fergusom. Infield: Jose Peraza.
For Ferguson to have a breakout, either Pillar or Almora will ither be injured or not cut it with the bat. Peraza will come up after Villar shows why he cannot stick with the same club for very long.
I'm with you on Smith, though he has some catching up to do, probably starting the season on the IL.
As for the other 3, I hope you're wrong, since they will only get chances if other, better players fail or are injured.
But our team looks solid in every way. I'm getting a little nervous about McNeil, but I think he'll snap out of his slump soon.
I hear ya. . I hope Smith doesn't have anything horribly wrong with that shoulder.
Here is the way I see the bullpen (the first eight will be their opening day staff):
1. Diaz: rock solid all year - a true and trusted closer
2. May: A decent piece - pretty solid through-out
3. Familia: Heartburn, but will be better than the last two years. He'll still walk too many, but throw a lot of ground balls - hope Guillorme comes into the game when he does.
4. Loup: OK, won't be a lights out lefty and will have a couple stints where he needs a break, short IL perhaps.
5. Betances: He will not last - he'll be the first to go - not sure how, but guessing it will start with an IL stint.
6. Castro: See above comments - he'll be a near all-star and keep this team in pretty much every game he pitches in.
7. Barnes: Serviceable for the most part. Like his spring, he'll get better as he pitches. I hope they do not waste him as an opener every fifth day.
8. Montgomery: He'll be just OK. I think he'll be the second one to need at least a temporary replacement. (This is where Zamora comes in)
What I would really like to see is Betances replace by Yamamoto and Lucchesi and Yamamoto "paired" with the intention of those two pitching every fifth day - 5 and 4 innings to start (or 6 and 3, 7 and 2, or 8 and 1 if the starter is dealing)
As for Ferguson, I think he is Davis: V2. The guy can hit (and run better than J.D.), but for all his basepath speed, I understand he is not that great in the field (I haven't seen him out there). He can outhit Almora all month. He would not a huge dropoff from Almora (or Pillar) if an injury were to happen.
My last point: McNeil. I am more worried about his defense being unplayable than I am his bat, although I think he has shown his best stuff at the plate already. I don't know. I saw a prediction of him with 22 homers and challenging for a batting title. I just don't see it. If he hits 22 homers, he will hit .270 tops. I just am not sold on him as being as good long term as he has shown so far.
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