Reese Kaplan -- Suppose Opening Day Comes With No Lindor Deal?

The Mets wouldn’t be the Mets if there wasn’t some potentially embarrassing situation threatening to descend upon them.  It could be front office personnel communicating inappropriately with others, it could be domestic violence episodes from the players or it could be something new entirely.  In this case it happens to be the price paid to obtain one year of service from superstar Francisco Lindor who may or may not sign a long term deal with his new team in Queens.

As a refresher, the Mets gave up shortstops Andres Gimenez and Amed Rosario, pitcher Josh Wolf and outfielder Isaiah Greene.  In return, not only did the Mets get Lindor, but also a high quality starting pitcher at moderate salary in Carlos Carrasco.  

The headlines across all of baseball media were effusive in the praise for the Mets, for new owner Steve Cohen and for the fleecing job the front office had done on Cleveland.  Obviously if the Mets received an All Star shortstop in Lindor, there was no need for Rosario (who’d fallen out of favor) or Gimenez who would have no place to play in New York.  

At the time I was my usual pessimistic self in pointing out to anyone who would listen that the Mets needed to secure Lindor with a pre-free agency deal that would keep him in New York for most of the rest of his career.  At just age 27 it would be relatively easy to do functionally by offering up a ten-year deal for major money that would keep him a part of the team pretty much until he would be ready to consider retirement.  

In addition, the previously ill Carlos Carrasco filled a great need, but there were some questions about his potential durability as he made his way back from his 2019 diagnosis of leukemia.  He fought back from it successfully and made his next start in 2020.  Although he only went 3-4 last season, he pitched to a season-long 2.91 ERA and made everyone from Luis Rojas to Jeremy Hefner to the full roster smile upon learning of his arrival.  Of course, no one could have anticipated the hamstring injury that would sideline Carrasco from the start of the 2021 season, but the word is that he’s responding well and hopefully it means a return in late May or early June if they want to be cautious with his recovery.  

The issue right now is not Carrasco, but the stories hitting the media that the Mets and their would-be shortstop are still pretty far apart in their negotiations.  The Mets allegedly have gone as high as ten years and $325 million but Lindor and his agent are asking for 12 years and $385 million.  While the average annual salary is slightly lower in the player’s proposed deal, it does add two more years of financial obligation that the Mets may not be ready to swallow.  

If the Mets decide to take a hard line and abide by Lindor’s deadline of Opening Day for contract negotiation then they are putting themselves into a potentially giant black eye for the deal they made.  It would mean the four players they sacrificed netted them Carlos Carrasco and a compensation pick assuming they would extend the Qualifying Offer to Lindor before he waves goodbye.  That doesn’t seem like much for what was sent packing to Cleveland.  

As I’ve stated before, it’s not the first time the Mets were in this type of situation.  They faced it with pitcher Mike Hampton helping them get to the World Series then hightailing it to Denver for a mediocre career in the pitching hell of Coors Field.  After going 15-10 with a 3.14 ERA for the pennant bound Mets, the remainder of his career between Colorado, Atlanta and Houston was 63-62 with a 4.84 ERA.  The Mets gave up reliever Octavio Dotel, outfielder Roger Cedeno and minor leaguer Kyle Kessel for that one year of service.  Oh yeah, the Mets got Derek Bell, too.  

If indeed they fail to square things with Lindor, there are ample shortstop opportunities in the free agent pool of 2021/2022 beyond him.  Set to hit free agency as well are Javier Baez, Corey Seager and Trevor Story.  Carlos Correa is out there, too, but the Astros are making strong efforts to sign him (though the initial 6 year/$120 million deal was hardly worthy of a star with his talent).  Any of these players will hit the same salary range Lindor wants, so there’s no money to be saved.

Top prospect Ronny Mauricio is thought to be a potential major league star, but right now he’s just 19 years old and has several more seasons of development to go along with his newly muscular physique.  In fact, many were suggesting he would move off shortstop to third base to be more commensurate with the projected power hitting and because the assumption was the Mets would have shortstop filled by Lindor for many years to come.

So if the Mets do not secure Lindor, who is the shortstop of the future?  They could go defense-first with someone like Luis Guillorme to hold down the fort for Mauricio, but that’s quite a dropoff in both power and baserunning speed from Lindor.  They could make a trade for someone on another club or they could just dig deeper into their pockets for the available free agent options.  If they’re going to have to make that move, wouldn’t it be more sensible to keep the star shortstop who’s already here?