Aidan Cooke- Making The Case For Mike Montgomery To Start the Year in the Majors

   

During a busy off-season, the Mets improved their bullpen by adding a combination of depth players and more well-known arms. 

One specific issue that Sandy Alderson and the front office targeted was the need for a lefty reliever, as the only left-handed relief pitcher on the 40-man after the season was Daniel Zamora, who has been decent throughout his career but has only pitched 17.2 innings at the major league level. For a team with playoff expectations, Zamora alone wouldn't cut it, and the Mets added Aaron Loup, Jerry Blevins, Stephen Tarpley, and Mike Montgomery to their player pool. 

Of those five players, Loup is the only one seemingly guaranteed to be on the opening day roster. The Mets would be smart to carry another southpaw in their bullpen given the number of high-profile lefty hitters in the NL East but would have four arms competing for one spot.

My pick to make the opening day bullpen would be Mike Montgomery. Montgomery has had a solid career, posting a 3.84 ERA and 4.25 xFIP through 541.0 innings pitched across six seasons. He has taken a step back over the last three seasons, though, producing a 4.41 ERA and an identical 4.41 xFIP. 

Last season, Montgomery pitched just 5.1 innings and allowed 5 runs, 3 earned runs, and 6 hits. All of his runs and 5 of his 6 hits came in one rough start, where he lasted only a pair of innings. 

He also made two appearances out of the pen, tossing 3.1 scoreless innings and allowing a single and a walk while punching out 3 hitters. Of course, this is only a small sample size; expecting Montgomery to replicate his .100/.182/.100 slash line against would be a fool's game. 

However, it would still be very reasonable to expect good results from him as a reliever next year. Over his career, Montgomery has a career 4.19 ERA and .325 wOBA against in 358.2 innings as a starter but only a 3.16 ERA and .301 wOBA against through 182.1 innings as a reliever. 

Montgomery would mostly be relegated to facing each batter only once as a reliever and has fared much better his first time through the lineup in his career. As a starter, he has a 3.36 ERA his first time through, 5.03 ERA in his second, and 4.56 ERA in his third. As a reliever, he has a 2.61 ERA his first time through, but that number jumps to 6.85 ERA when he's used after facing nine batters. 

Using Montgomery as a reliever would negate his struggles the second time through the order because it would practically eliminate the situation as a whole.

The fact that Montgomery has gone through the lineup more than once as a reliever is something to note, as it shows he is more than qualified to take on a swing-man role rather than being relegated to three outs. His extra stamina is more valuable than in past years due to the new three-batter-minimum rule.  Teams will need to turn to many different pitchers to eat up innings after the shortened season in 2020, and Montgomery can help carry the load if he can get 6 or so outs when needed. 

    

This would put him ahead of other candidates like Daniel Zamora and Jerry Blevins. Blevins was solid with the Mets from 2015-18, posting a 3.29 ERA across 136.2 frames. He has been used primarily as a LOOGY throughout his career. LOOGYs are a dying breed, especially with the newly-implemented three batter minimum. 

Blevins pitched his 136.2 innings with the Mets across 219 games, meaning he averaged fewer than 2 outs recorded per appearance. At 37 years old, the increased workload would likely have an adverse effect on his game, especially after he did not pitch professionally after spring training last season. Blevins may not be able to provide the quality or innings that Montgomery would. 

Blevins has not performed as well as Montgomery this spring, either, pitching 4.2 innings with a 3.86 ERA and 1.93 WHIP against weaker competition than he would face in the regular season. In his most recent outing, Blevins's fastball, and curveball, and changeup all had a significantly lower average velocity than they did in his last full season. Additionally, his curveball and fastball had reduced spin rates.

Like Blevins, Daniel Zamora has also been used as a LOOGY, even though he has had rather equal success against lefties and righties in his career. While I would love to see more of Zamora, who only has 17.2 innings at the major league level, Montgomery seems like the better option. 

Zamora does not have the versatility, experience, or endurance that Monty has displayed throughout his career. In the event of an injury or underperformance to one of Loup or Montgomery, Zamora would be a great option to fill in.

Another skill that Montgomery possesses to distinguish himself is his control. Last season, the Mets' bullpen had the 2nd-worst walk rate of any bullpen in baseball (5.06, just ahead of Seattle's 5.08 BB/9). Since the 'pen already has several arms liable to allowing walks, the Mets should add players who can balance them out with good control. 

Over the last three seasons, Montgomery has allowed just 3.02 BB/9, a well-above-average number. Jerry Blevins permitted 4.5 BB/9 from 2017-19 and Stephen Tarpley has allowed 5.84 BB/9 through his 3 major league seasons. 

    

Speaking of Tarpley, I believe he is one of the most interesting arms in camp but has some real issues to work on. Stephen possesses a slurve-like pitch and a good sinker that gets groundballs. His sinker gets more movement than most, as its average vertical drop of 29.7 inches was 18th of the 233 sinkers thrown at least 50 times in 2020. 

Tarpley has some serious split issues, though. While he has excelled against left-handed hitters, righties have knocked him around in his career to the tune of a .353/.468/.627 line. With the aforementioned three batter minimum in play, Tarpley needs to sort out his platoon problems and limit his walks before becoming a reliable arm for the major league club.

Montgomery would also make a prime candidate to serve in the opener role. The Mets are already without Carlos Carrasco and Noah Syndergaard and will turn to David Peterson and Joey Lucchesi to start in their places. Manager Luis Rojas has already discussed the possibility of an opener if Lucchesi were to start, and now that Yamamoto is out of the mix that possibility looks more like a probability. 

Montgomery's experience starting games (70 career games started) would make him a more favorable choice to open games. Additionally, Montgomery could pitch into the second and possibly third innings rather than going one-and-done like other candidates to open. 

    

Mike Montgomery would provide the most versatility out of the bullpen that few could match, having the capability to open games, make spot starts, and go more than one inning as a reliever. 

He could eat up innings in a year where pitchers will likely need smaller workloads than usual and his career stats as a reliever also indicate that Montgomery could be a potential arm to rely on out of the bullpen, even when the Mets are fully healthy.