Round 1 - RHP - Matt Harvey - (updated...)

6-9-10 from: - link  - SCOUTING PROFILE (3/1): Though Harvey gets routinely praised for his character and makeup, he has nonetheless become one of the more controversial players in the 2010 draft class. He was targeted as a probable first-round pick throughout most of his career at a Connecticut high school,but concerns about his signability as the 2007 draft drew near sent him tumbling to the third round, where he was selected by the Los Angeles Angels. That pretty much sealed the deal that Harvey would honor his commitment to North Carolina, and he entered the 2008 college season as the nation’s No. 1-ranked freshman. In his first two seasons with the Tar Heels, Harvey was a combined 14-4, 4.22 with 89 walks and 161 strikeouts in 143 innings, hardly dominating numbers, and scouts openly questioned his arm action and delivery. Those concerns came to a head last summer in the Cape Cod League, when Harvey’s mechanics were inconsistent throughout the season. He not only had a tendency to get out front too much on his delivery, but some scouts expressed the concern that his deliberate, one-piece arm action had not only caused him to regress, but might even be irreversible. His 0-2, 7.04 record in three starts, and velocity that fluctuated from the mid-80s to the mid-90s, provided compelling evidence. Given that unflattering scouting profile, Harvey was no longer considered a shoe-in to be drafted in the first round in 2010, much like he was when he set career records for wins (21), ERA (1.08) and strikeouts (315) at Fitch High, where his father Ed was the school’s baseball coach and one of his teammates was righthander Jesse Hahn, now at Virginia Tech and a probable first-rounder himself in June. Though Harvey’s prospect status was somewhat up in the air on the eve of his junior season at UNC, big-league clubs were wise not to make the mistake of overlooking the appeal he held earlier in his career and the possibility that he could work out the kinks in his delivery and recapture his old touch. And in a significant about-face, Harvey has been a revelation this spring. In his first six starts for the Tar Heels, he went 3-1, 1.85 with 48 strikeouts in 39 innings, while allowing just 23 hits. His fastball has been overpowering, regularly reaching 97-98 mph. The command of his secondary stuff has been sharper, and his mechanics have been much more fluid—more like earlier in his career. As a freshman at North Carolina, Harvey was brought along slowly, working mainly as a Sunday starter, and went a commendable 7-2, 2.79 with 47 walks and 80 strikeouts in 68 innings. Even as his workload was curtailed by design that summer, he flashed the best power stuff in the Cape with a fastball that was consistently in the 94-95 mph range and a hammer curve at 82-84. His changeup was a solid third pitch. His stuff remained top-notch as a UNC sophomore, but scouts began to see signs that Harvey no longer threw with the same smooth, easy arm action that he had in high school. He was stiffer with more effort in his delivery, leading to inconsistent command. He tended to get behind in counts, enabling hitters to sit on his fastball. Those concerns became more acute over the next several months, but it was evident in his first several starts this season that Harvey had received extensive positive coaching in the fall to correct his flawed motion, and he almost immediately reversed course to quickly become the pitcher everyone thought he would be all along.—ALLAN SIMPSON


UPDATE (5/15): By watching the 2009 and 2010 versions of Harvey, it would be tough to tell that the same pitcher was on the mound. But Harvey has undeniably shown why he was considered such an elite talent in high school, and has essentially returned to the same delivery he had then. Harvey had his share of scouts talking about his April 23 game against Clemson, when he threw a complete game (9 IP/6 H/1 BB/15 SO) with a mind-boggling 156 pitches. The most impressive part of the outing, though, was that pitch No. 156 was a 96 mph fastball to end the game. His velocity from the past is obviously back as he has sat in the 92-96 mph range all year, topping out at 98 on several occasions. He has also featured a tight, low-80s slider that projects as a potential plus pitch. While some scouts might still be wary of Harvey’s struggles from a year ago, there is no doubt he has the natural talent to work his way into the top 15-20 picks. Through mid-May, Harvey was 6-3, 2.72 on the year.—JEFF SIMPSON



6-8-10 from Jack Flynn at https://mail.google.com/mail/?shva=1#inbox/1291a3ed5d70b3d8 - A brief digression: when baseball observers speak broadly about "mechanics," I am never sure if they mean that a pitcher's mechanics make him susceptible to injury or if he simply has problems repeating his motion. If it's the first concern, I don't worry about it. Mark Prior had flawless mechanics and his arm blew up on him. The second concern is a bigger issue. I don't really care HOW a guy throws, as long as he's comfortable and can repeat it. Someone like Luis Tiant wouldn't even be drafted today because of his unique mechanics, or he would have been ruined in the minors because some Single-A pitching coach would've completely change the dynamics of it.



A smaller red flag, depending on how you look at it, is the news that Harvey had a 156-pitch outing for the Tarheels earlier this year. It was mentioned during last night's draft show and one of the analysts claim that his final pitch of the night was still 95 MPH. If you read my infrequent postings then you know I'm no pitch-count watcher, but an outing like that is what you makes you worry about college starters. Some college managers are known for shredding the arms of their starters in the annual quest to get to Omaha.


If Harvey signs quickly enough, he'll be on the mound in Brooklyn this summer. I say "if," because Harvey is a Scot Boras client who can go back to UNC for his senior year if the Mets do not meet his asking price. I will be very interested to see if the Mets, who have slavishly adhered to slot recommendations for several years now, meet Harvey's salary demands. Boras certainly won't be worrying about slot recommendations!

6-8-10 from: - Mack's Anaysis:

Round 1 – 7th pick overall – SP Matt Harvey – University of North Carolina: - Simply put, this is a good pick. Harvey’s name has been knocked around since the day he graduated high school Most pundits considered him the top pitcher coming out of HS that year and were surprised he didn’t sign with the LA Angels. He did fall to the third round in 2007, but that was due toa signability question. Some of the experts are now saying he will wind up a reliever with the Mets and I’ve never figured out how someone with a laptop can do that. All I know is he pitched one of his last games this year against Clemson and his last pitch was 96-mph. Oh yeah… his pitch total was 153 pitches.

I don’t think it’s a surprised that Harvey has been picked in the same year Mike Pelfrey has flourished. This is the same kind of pitcher, and, if I remember correctly, some of those experts said the same thing about him when he was drafted.

The down side here is the fact that “you just don’t know” whether pitchers like this can develop the secondary pitchers needed to make them a successful major league rotational pitcher. Some, like Pelfrey develop the pitch (cutter) needed to compliment a sick fastball, while others, like Brad Holt, have not. Remember, it’s a lot different in the Bigs than in college. If a pitcher can throw strikes at 96-mph, that tail off at the end, that makes them… a reliever. If the same pitcher can develop two plus pitchers to compliment that heater, they go rotation. It really is that simple.

Projection: I really think the Mets might shut him down for the remainder of the season, but that’s just me. If not, look for him in Brooklyn, but I guarantee you that he will start the 2011 season in Binghamton. I see his future as a Met as an SP5 in 2012, rising to an SP3 behind Santana and Pelfrey in 2015.

Draft Grade: A

Matt Harvey – North Carolina – 6-4, 230 - … was 3rd round pick by the Angels out of high school and turned down a $1mil offer. Low-90s fastball that touches 95. Excellent curveball… average changeup… comes from ¾ arm slot… changeup 78-81… breaking ball 76-79… works quickly from stretch… 2009: 7-2, 5.35, 78K, 70.2 IP… BA ranks him as the #1 sophomore of the 2009 season…

7/07 fr. http://www.projectprospect.com/ : - A first round talent out of high school in 2007, Harvey slipped to the fourth round due to bonus demands. While his time at North Carolina has been a bit rocky, Harvey still has good stuff and struck out 81 batters in 75 innings last spring. Harvey’s fastball sits in the low 90’s with some sink, and is complimented by a potentially plus breaking ball and changeup. If Harvey can show some improved command this spring, he walked 11.9% of batters last spring, he still has as much upside as any pitcher in this class.

8-1: from http://perfectgame.atinfopop.com/  : put on some weight this year and arm angle dropped a bit, most fb were very straight during CWS, velocity still solid abv ave range 89-94 will touch 95-96 on occasion. Must work with finger pressure and get more movement on his fb for 2010. Solid slide piece when on top. Control is solid as well.

8-2: from 6-16 article http://www.sportsillustrated.cnn.com/  : Harvey turned down $1 million from the Angels as a third-round pick out of high school, and the Connecticut product is pitching in his second straight CWS with the Tar Heels. He'll become the undisputed staff ace next year when White and senior Adam Warren (a fourth-round pick of the Yankees this year) move on, using a low-90s fastball that reaches 95 at times and a true hammer curveball that is his best pitch. Harvey can lose control of the strike zone due to a long arm action and some effort in his delivery, so he's not a finished product. But he was the best pitching prospect in the Cape last summer and may be again in 2009.

9-24: From: http://mlbresource.blogspot.com/  : Mock Draft Version 1.0 – 8th pick overall - 8. Matt Harvey, RHP - North Carolina

9-28: From http://mlbresource.blogspot.com/ : - Mock Draft Version 2 - #15 pick overall - Matt Harvey, RHP - North Carolina - North Carolina seems to breed first round pitching and out comes another. Harvey has been higher on other boards and even my previous one but a shaky 5.40 ERA last year will need to be improved on. Stats do not tell the whole story as this is a polished righty with a chance to be a quality big league starter.

10-5 from http://baseballdraftreport.com/  : - top 50 prospects in 2010 draft – #18 – Matt Harvey (11th RHP on list)

11-2 from http://www.perfectgame.com/ : - Future Scout Sully said: Here is my list of the Top 50 in the class. I have seen almost every one of these players. Went out to AFLAC for the week, saw team usa play, and went to many cape games: - 8- RHP Matt Harvey (5th RHP on list)

11-3 from http://www.mlbresource.com/  : 3rd Mock draft – #16 - Matt Harvey, RHP - North Carolina - Harvey gives the Cubs an experienced big game pitcher that comes from a school known for developing quality pitchers. Harvey could go even higher than this. (8th RHP on list)

11-17 from http://www.mlbdraft.blogspot.com/  : - 13. Chicago White Sox- Matt Harvey, RHP, UNC - Harvey was viewed as a top 5 pick, if not the top pick in the draft for quite some time. That was before Harper entered the draft, and before Harvey has a disapointing season at UNC. If Harvey bounces back to form, he could find himself near the top of the draft again. (6th RHP picked)

11-18 from http://www.macksmets.blogspot.com/  : - 8. RHP Matt Harvey – a weak draft means lots of right hand pitchers taken early and Harvey will be one of the first ones grabbed. (4th RHP on list)

11-23 from http://www.deepleagues.com/  : - #19 - Detroit Tigers Matt Harvey (P, North Carolina) (8th RHP on list)

2010 MLB DRAFT MOCK DRAFT- 12/31/09 – http://www.jjscouting.com/ / - 13. Chicago White Sox- Matt Harvey, RHP, UNC - Harvey was viewed as a top 5 pick, if not the top pick in the draft for quite some time. That was before Harper entered the draft, and before Harvey has a disapointing season at UNC. If Harvey bounces back to form, he could find himself near the top of the draft again.

1-1-9 from http://www.draftsite.com/  : - mock draft: - #55 NY Mets Matt Harvey RHP University of North Carolina 6'4" 225 R,R

1-15-9 from http://baseballdraftreport.com/ : - #28 Los Angeles Dodgers: RHSP Matt Harvey – North Carolina - After Harvey’s hot start last season, I wrote the following on March 1, 2009:

[W]hat is the likelihood, if it exists at all, that Matt Harvey reaches the same level of hype other elite college pitchers (Strasburg, Price, and Prior, to name a few) had heading into his draft year? Uhh, I’m going to have to go out on a limb here and say that the likelihood isn’t all that good. Controversial answer, I know. It’s probably weird having Matt Harvey in the first round at this point, but, if anything, I actually feel weird about having him this low. A really, really good rule to follow when tracking draft prospects is to remember that once a player shows you a skill, it is his to own. There are obvious exceptions to this, major injuries being the most obvious, but good players just don’t plain forget how to do good things on the field. Elite prospects who don’t sign out of high school tend not to drop too far after three years of college, even if those three years are so-so. The most recent reports on Harvey have been largely positive: 90-93 sitting velocity with fastball, 94-95 peak velocity, plus 77-80 CB, and a solid sinking low-80s change. The biggest problem with Harvey’s game seems to be his bizarre velocity inconsistency with his fastball. One day you’ll see him pitching in the mid-90s, the next he’ll be down to maxing out at 86 (86!), and then he’ll be back up to sitting 88-90, but still not hitting 96 like before…until the next time out when he suddenly has regained those lost 10 MPH on the fastball. What the heck is that? It’s not even a start-to-start phenomenom, either; Harvey has experienced sudden velocities dips and gains in-game as well. I have no idea what to make of Harvey. If the right scouting director sees him on the right day, he’ll go high. If not, he’ll be lumped in with the rest of the college guys who project as relievers hoping to get a spot in the first five rounds. I like the idea of the Dodgers taking Harvey one pick before the Angels, the team that couldn’t get him signed back in 2007. I wonder what Harvey’s career would have looked like so far if he would have signed out of high school. He’s a prime candidate for an Alternate Reality Crystal Ball…

3-10 from XMLBScout/perfectgame.com  : - Also in regards to Matt Harvey, his delivery is cleaner than last summer yes and last spring, yes, but still the same kid with a much better breaking ball. He might be best suited as a closer in the big leagues also John Smoltz or Steve Bedrosian, I don't think he has 5 plus inning in him every 4 days and be consistent, but who knows once he's in pro ball. Top 50 guy for sure.

3-16 from http://www.prospectjunkies.com/  : - Matt Harvey - RHP - UNC. 5IP 7H 3ER 4BB 3K (W). Line looks closer to the 09 Harvey in a NC win v. Duke.:

3-24 from: http://pnrscouting.com/articles_stockwatch_2010class_10onthrerise_03232010.html  - Stock Watch: Ten on the Rise (2010 Draft Class) - Matt Harvey, RHP, Univ. of North Carolina (#56 on PnR Preseason Top 300): After strong reports came out of fall practice in Chapel Hill, PnR was comfortable placing Harvey comfortably in the second round for our preseason rankings -- his pure stuff is special and easily worthy of 1st round consideration if he's performing at his best. Consistency has been the issue throughout Harvey's time at UNC, but if the first month of the 2010 is any indication of things to come he may have finally shaken that monkey off of his back. Harvey has posted a fine line of 5 GS, 32 IP, 20 H, 7 ER, 14 BB and 37 SO while showing potential front-end stuff, including a low- to mid-90s fastball, a potential plus breaking ball and a change-up he has been throwing with increasing success. Harvey can continue to win over supporters the more consistency he shows, and could be a 1st round -- maybe early 1st round -- selection come June.

4-7 from: http://www.baseballrumormill.com/2010/04/2010-draft-preview-matt-harvey-rising-kyle-blair-falling/#more  - Matt Harvey, UNC, RHP: The North Carolina product has improved his deliver which has resulted in high velocity in his fastball, up to 97 so far this season. Although he continues to struggle with his command, he continues to induce almost 80% of balls put in play on the ground. He seems likely to be a first round draft pick.

4-13 from: - http://perfectgame.atinfopop.com/4/OpenTopic?a=tpc&s=114295945&f=6174069131&m=4361060202  - Also in regards to Matt Harvey, his delivery is cleaner than last summer yes and last spring, yes, but still the same kid with a much better breaking ball. He might be best suited as a closer in the big leagues also John Smoltz or Steve Bedrosian, I don't think he has 5 plus inning in him every 4 days and be consistent, but who knows once he's in pro ball. Top 50 guy for sure.

4-19 from: - http://www.baseballrumormill.com/  - Harvey has bounced back from two awful years in college to reestablish himself as a prospect for this year's draft, with a significant and unexpected increase in velocity this spring and an improved delivery. One major change in Harvey's performance this year is in his ability to get groundballs, as he's getting on top of his fastball and driving many of them down at or below the bottom of the zone.

4-19 from: - http://www.pnrscouting.com/rankings_2010_midseason_pitcher.html  - Matt Harvey, Junior, Univ. of North Carolina and Brandon Workman, Junior, Univ. of Texas jumped into the back-end of the Top 10, Harvey all the way from a preseason ranking of #27. Each has struggled some with his command (Harvey to a greater extent than Workman), but have enjoyed a successful first half to the year and project as legit 1st Round talents.

4-20 from: - http://www.minorleagueball.com/2010/4/20/1433135/interesting-college-pitchers-for  - RHP, University of North Carolina - An unsigned third round pick in the 2007 draft, Harvey has been erratic in college, outstanding at times but hampered by command issues. At his best, the 6-4, 225 pounder features a mid-90s fastball, a nasty curve, and a solid changeup. However, problems with his mechanics were an issue last summer in the Cape Cod League, costing him velocity and control. He's been much better this spring, with a 2.59 ERA and a 60/26 K/BB in 59 innings, with 44 hits allowed, showing a more consistent delivery and better stuff (96-98), though his control still wobbles on occasion. Harvey is a definite wild card on draft day. Depending on his bonus demands and late May performance, he could go anywhere from 15 to 40.

4-24 from: - http://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/baseball/news;_ylt=AjpEcNS8dq_g39RRWsAapfgMwLYF?slug=kr-friday042410  - He also was one of the biggest question marks before the season. Harvey, who turned down big-time money out of high school to attend North Carolina, had a fabulous freshman campaign that ended with a 2.79 ERA. But as a sophomore last season, the right-hander certainly left something to be desired with a 5.40 ERA. Numerous meltdowns last season led to a plethora of question marks about Harvey’s ability to be the Tar Heels’ staff ace this spring. Consider those questions answered, though. Harvey is having a sensational campaign for the Tar Heels. And after striking out 15 batters and allowing just three runs on six hits in a complete game performance against Clemson on Friday, his numbers became even more impressive. Harvey has a 2.65 ERA in 68 innings of work. He also has struck out 75 and walked 27 and is limiting opposing teams to a .202 batting average in 10 starts.

4-26 from: - http://thecollegebaseballblog.com/2010/04/26/acc-baseball-weekly-honors  - North Carolina’s Matt Harvey received ACC Pitcher of the Week honors. Harvey (5-2) threw his first career complete-game with a six hitter with a career-best 15 strikeouts to lead North Carolina over No. 20 Clemson 5-3 Friday night at Doug Kingsmore Stadium. Harvey struck out the side three times, including six punch-outs in a row in the sixth and seventh innings, and now has fanned the side nine different times this season. The junior caught nine Clemson batters looking at a called third strike and fell just four strikeouts shy of the single-game school record of 19. Harvey eclipsed his previous career-high of 13 strikeouts and now has posted four double-digit strikeout games this season. Harvey, a junior from Mystic, Conn., was also named a National Pitcher of the Week by Collegiate Baseball.

4-28 from: - http://projectprospect.com/article/2010/04/28/lincolns-2010-draft-board  - Matt Harvey has been known to draftniks for a long time. Heralded as neck-and-neck with Rick Porcello out of high school by some, Harvey has been up-and-down during his time at the University of North Carolina. Fortunately for Harvey, this spring has mostly been up. Control has been a problem at times during his collegiate career but this spring he’s walked 9.8% of the batters, a number that will need to come down as a professional but it’s not a terrible figure. Harvey’s mediocre control is offset by a lot of strikeouts, 28.3% of batters this spring including 15 in his last outing versus a very good Clemson squad. Harvey’s fastball has shown impressive velocity, touching 96-97 MPH late in starts and excellent sink, 69% of his batted ball outs have come on the ground. In high school, Harvey’s main breaking ball was a plus curveball; in college he’s spent more time toying with a slider that flashes plus but is still inconsistent. While he may not go as high as some though he deserved out of high school, Harvey still looks like a solid first round pick.

5-1 from: - http://projectprospect.com/article/2010/04/28/lincolns-2010-draft-board  - Matt Harvey has been known to draftniks for a long time. Heralded as neck-and-neck with Rick Porcello out of high school by some, Harvey has been up-and-down during his time at the University of North Carolina. Fortunately for Harvey, this spring has mostly been up. Control has been a problem at times during his collegiate career but this spring he’s walked 9.8% of the batters, a number that will need to come down as a professional but it’s not a terrible figure. Harvey’s mediocre control is offset by a lot of strikeouts, 28.3% of batters this spring including 15 in his last outing versus a very good Clemson squad. Harvey’s fastball has shown impressive velocity, touching 96-97 MPH late in starts and excellent sink, 69% of his batted ball outs have come on the ground. In high school, Harvey’s main breaking ball was a plus curveball; in college he’s spent more time toying with a slider that flashes plus but is still inconsistent. While he may not go as high as some though he deserved out of high school, Harvey still looks like a solid first round pick.

5-17 from: - http://www.sportingnews.com/blog/MLB_Draft/entry/view/66255/stock_watch_harvey_up,_colon_down#page_break  - On the season, Harvey is 6-3 with a 2.72 ERA, striking out 86 in 82 innings pitched. The 30 walks is still a concern, and some scouts believe Harvey might find more success as a power reliever, with velocity that sits easily in the 96-97 mph range. His slider has progressed from a hard curve he used to throw and is considered above average. Those two pitches alone, along with a clean delivery and strong arm have people thinking Harvey could pitch fast if he were drafted as late-inning reliever, eventually moving into a closer's role. At 6-4 and 225 pounds, he fits the bill.