My post yesterday discussed the three biggest pitchers on the market this offseason and the biggest holds people seem to have are about the budget. The Wilpons don't have the money and the budget will not be over $110 Million. Okay... fine... then the Mets attendance will continue to diminish and the process of building up the fan base will take even longer.If the Mets spent NOTHING: They let Reyes go and used minor leaguers for every hole they had left, they would lose fans in DROVES. The $20-ish Million saved by not signing Reyes will bes LOST in yearly revenue between ticket sales and lowered merchandise sales.
If the Mets ONLY resign Reyes: They are merely treading water. While teams like the Yankees and Phillies are going out and gaining talent and improving the Mets become stagnant and lose fans or potential fans of the future.
If the Mets signed Reyes AND another SUPERSTAR player: They earn themselves buzz and press and become a magnet for new fans. They also energize the existing fan base. I'm not saying that they immediately earn back every dime they invest and there is plenty of risk but it's simply to risky not to send an IMPROVED product onto the field in 2012.
10 comments:
By my estimates...
(Cot Baseball) The Mets payroll in 2011 is $142,797,166
I have a savings already determined for next season of:
4-1-11: Oliver Perez ($12mil)
4-1-11: Luis Castillo ($6.25mil)
4-1-11: Gary Mathews ($1mil)
7-12-11:F.Rodriguez ($12,166,666
7-28-11: Carlos Beltran 20,070,000)
To Date: - $ 51,486,666.00
This brings in the 2012 contracts at approx. $91mil.
If you give Jose an additional $10mil/yr, you have $9mil more for raises and new players
By My Estimates:
New Yorkers are not what I like to call rational. If you do not put at LEAST $120 Mil and more likely $130 or $140 Mil out there... you will lose fickle fans.
Also...
Reyes for $10 Mil per? Sign me up! Think North of that figure.
Among our options:
Don't ignore the ability for the Mets to TRADE Ike Davis (for pitching) and sign one of the two BIG NAME (Pujols or Fielder) first basemen. Getting Pujols would be a shot into the arm of the fans and probably pay for itself in ticket sales and merchandise revenue.
PLUS
Davis with his low price tag could probably net a pretty spiffy pitcher.
first...
I said pay Reyes $10mil MORE, not 10mil.
I thnk you and I approach this team in two different ways (which is fine).
You write like a fan.
I started a blog to create a site where the Mets minor league players can get the proper exposure.
I would love the Mets to win it all, but I don't write as a fan.
Regarding this subject, both you and I agree that this should be a $150+ per year team. They are in NYC and, frankly, $150+mil may be low.
Five years ago, and the economy that existed then, we would have no discussions about second base. The Mets would have just wrote a check and Dan Uggla would have been on the team for the next five years.
I love dreaming, but that's not my role here.
I want the fans to understand that this is a mis-managed business and what kind of team they should expect next year.
I love your optimism and your frustration with the current direction, but, in my opinion, it is what it is.
The one qualm I have with spending wildly on pitching this offseason is that aside from what seem to be very real money issues, there isn't really a perfect option out there. Darvish looks great, he's young, he doesn't cost a draft pick but he's also unproven. Sabathia is a great pitcher but he'll probably go back to the Yankees (I don't see him walking away from them, especially to come to Queens). Wilson is a solid pitcher and doesn't have the mileage on his arm of a 31 year old starter but he's still 31 and I personally don't look at him as a #1 (more of an excellent #2 starter in my eyes...certainly an upgrade but I think he'll be overpaid based on the dearth of pitching on the market).
I can't help but wonder whether it'd be better this offseason to either make a trade for a starter or otherwise, to wait things out for next offseason, when a huge crop of pitchers will be available. That group could potentially include Matt Cain, Zack Greinke, Cole Hamels, Dan Haren, Tim Hudson, Shaun Marcum, Anibal Sanchez and James Shields among others. Obviously not all will make it out there but I think it's something to think about, considering the money issues may be more clear in a year and the potential that the team will be much closer to competing in 2013. Maybe they're best served in 2012 patching holes again, looking for bargains. I don't know if he'll make it to free agency but Adam Wainwright would be a guy I'd look at coming off TJ surgery if he's cheap enough. Or if they're looking via trade, I know Andrew Friedman is a great GM and tough to deal with, but maybe take a look into James Shields who's nearing free agency, if they make him available.
I do agree that they need another front of the rotation starter and somebody who's got some experience. While I'm excited about Harvey, Wheeler Familia and Mejia, we obviously can't bank on them all making the rotation and reaching their potential. But I just wonder if this is the right offseason to try to reel in an ace on the free agent market, with the money issues and all.
Mistermet:
Also... 2013 will bring a bunch of very good outfielders into the free agent market.
I'm not the owner, but if I was:
1. operate 2012 at $110mil tops
2. let Tejada/Havens determine 2B
3. resign Reyes
4. resign Wright
5. slot Harvey and Wheeler into rotation latest September 2012
6. slow Mejia, Schwinden, Gee, and Familia into pen
7. get the Madoff mess done.
And then... before the 2013 season... sign a free agent CF and C
My posts point is merely that it makes financial sense... FOR THE WILPONS to spend more money.
I agree 100% with you Phlave....
The past few years the Mets have had a top 5 payroll, and the only reason thats going to change is because they dont have the money to spend. Phavy, i'd love to buy a cream colored Escalaid, but since I cant afford it, i'll have to stick with my ten year old Hyundai. These players dont play for free, but maybe if you start a "lets do it for the Wilpons and play for nuttin!" petition, we'd have a chance of resigning Luis Castillo.
If the Wilpon's cheap out, they'll lose fans as well as revenue.
CJ Wilson is probably an excellent #2 on a championship team, but why not get him now and slot him as the #1 on next year's non-championship team? Then, get an Ace for 2013 and you have ACE-Wilson-Harvey-Niese-Wheeler. Good mix of experience, talent, and overall affordability.
Mack - I agree, I think the OF will be addressed next offseason. Bay will only have one year left on his deal, Duda will get a full year in the bigs, and hopefully Nieuwenhuis will make it to Citi sometime in 2012. The FO will have a clearer picture. I'm holding out hope that Matt Kemp hits the market and that ownership is willing to invest at that point.
Also, the team can save another $4 million by moving Mike Pelfrey.
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