Michael Friere - What Now, David?

A couple of articles ago, I started a new series that will be titled “What Now”? Essentially, I am going to select a different Mets’ player each week, that I feel should make a positive impact in 2012 if everything falls just right. More to the point, I am selecting players that are viewed as “questionable” or coming off a “down year” in 2011 and hoping that 2012 is better.

Last week’s installment focused on a player that has driven me crazy (not such a long drive, I know) over the past few years, in Mike Pelfrey. Not since Oliver Perez has a Mets’ player done so little with so much talent. Moving along, this week I am going to stray from the starting rotation and wander over to the left side of the diamond to take a closer look at the “face” of the franchise, David Wright.

I will confess right now that I am a huge David Wright fan. I wouldn’t go so far as to call it a “bromance”, but I simply enjoy the way he plays the game and the fact that I played third base as a kid makes me respect his abilities. However, I am going to try and be neutral in my analysis and “call it like I see it” (you can let me know how I did in a few more paragraphs).

Like most stories worth telling, you should always start at the beginning. David was drafted by the Mets in 2001, with the 38th overall pick. He was actually a compensation pick (sandwiched between the first and second rounds) awarded to the Mets for the loss of Mike Hampton to the Colorado Rockies. That was one of the few times in the “free spending” past that the Mets allowed a star player to leave and instead, recouped draft picks (as opposed to giving them away like candy on Halloween).

After some seasoning in the minor leagues, David made an appearance in 2004 for the Mets (283 plate appearances), and became the regular third baseman in 2005. It still feels weird to think of 2004 and 2005 as a long time ago, but it has been seven seasons since his debut and he has been one of the mainstays of the team.

In 4783 plate appearances, spread out basically over eight seasons (which averages out to 597.8 per year, despite limited appearances in his rookie year of 2004, as well as his injury plagued year of 2011), David has produced 32.6 WAR (wins above replacement level) and 319 RAR (runs above replacement level). More specifically, that is an average yearly WAR of approximately 4.1 and an average yearly RAR of approximately 39.9, which are both excellent statistics.

For the statistically challenged, over the past eight seasons, David has averaged a basic statistical line of .300/.380/.508/.888, with 23 home runs, 91 runs batted in and 19 stolen bases, along with five All Star Game appearances and two Gold Gloves at third base. How many ways can you say he is an excellent third baseman and probably our best player?

Well, in an effort to stay neutral (I am trying), there are some less than stellar numbers to look at, as well.

For starters, David is going to play the 2012 season as a 29 year old, which we can all agree is no longer considered “young”. You could argue that his abilities have peaked, and that we may have seen the best of what he will produce going forward (but you don’t expect him to fall off a cliff, either). Plus, David has generally been healthy, but he has missed significant time in two of the past three years, which as he ages could become more prevalent. Plus, there is the alarming drop in his overall defensive statistics, which is problematic for a team that cannot afford to give the opposition extra outs.

Putting the last paragraph to the side for a moment. In my opinion, there are two, 800 pound elephants in the room to discuss. The first one is the “mental effect” that the move from Shea Stadium to Citi Field has had on David and the second one is his contract status in the current Mets’ economic disaster.

David’s career statistical line, detailed above, is pretty impressive. For another comparison, consider Dave Pappas’ “similarity scores” chart, which matches current players to past players by performance and by the age at which they are playing. David profiles with such players as Chipper Jones, Gary Sheffield and Carl Yastremski, which is interesting (I actually used Chipper Jones in a sentence without breaking something) and probably bodes well for David’s future.

However, when you look at his general statistical lines from the “Shea Stadium” years (2004 through 2008) and his statistical lines from the “Citi Field” years (2009 through 2011) a disturbing trend starts to develop.

Shea Stadium: .309/.389/.533/.921 26 HR/98 RBI/18 SB

Citi Field: .284/.364/.463/.828 18 HR/79 RBI/20 SB

Clearly, something is different. You could point to age, injuries, the lack of a supporting cast, the new ballpark, or any other logical cause. Regardless, he is not the same player that he was while playing in Shea Stadium. Maybe the new dimensions at Citi Field will change things?

The second issue, as stated above, is the fact that David is nearing the end of his 6 year, 55 million dollar contract that he signed prior to the 2007 season (that contract was a bargain, when you consider the entire body of work). He is scheduled to make 15 million dollars for 2012, which is probably the going rate for a player of his caliber. Plus, there is a team option for 16 million dollars for 2013, with a 1 million dollar buyout.

The basic dynamic can be answered in two questions. First, is David’s overall value worth approximately 15 million dollars per year going forward? Second, is David viewed as a part of the Mets’ future, when they are supposed to be contenders again? The answer to those two questions will dictate whether the front office signs him to an extension, deals him during the 2012 season or decides his fate after the season with the listed option (which probably deserves an article all by itself).

In closing, what can we expect from David this year? For starters, I hope that he stays healthy and has some stability around him in the batting order. I would love to see him bat third, just ahead of a healthy Ike Davis, which should translate to better pitches to hit on a consistent basis. Add that to the reconfigured dimensions at Citi Field, and I think a return to his Shea Stadium numbers is possible.

Hell, even if you account for some statistical regression from the Shea Stadium years, would you be happy with a statistical line like this?

.290/.365/.500/.865 20 HR/90 RBI/20 SB

That line is a weighted average of his career statistical line, adjusted slightly for age regression, etc. It is actually pretty close to his career averages and would keep him among the best third baseman in the game. Not to mention, I think a healthy season equals a much better defensive year, further boosting his worth.

Oddly enough, the better David plays, the more tempting it will be for Sandy to deal him for a cache of prospects. Unfortunately, all of this remains to be seen and it very well could take on “Jose Reyes characteristics” as 2012 unfolds.