1/30/12

Frank Gray - Daniel Murphy: A little faith can go a long way


Photo by Mack Ade
The New York Mets have searched for a second baseman for two years. That includes the final year of Luis Castillo's tenure in Queens. They have tried Justin Turner, Chin Lung Hu, Ruben Tejada and Daniel Murphy among others. Of these players, Tejada and Murphy stood out. Turner has becomes a fan favorite as well.

With the departure of Jose Reyes, the Mets will be filling the void at short stop with Tejada. That leaves Turner and Murphy to pick up the slack at second base. Last season, Murphy impressed with his bat (.320 AVG, 6 HR and 49 RBI) but not his glove (10 errors). The exact opposite can be said for Turner (.260 AVG, 4 HR and 51 RBI). Both were counted on to fill in for multiple positions.

There have been reports that the Mets will be sticking with Murphy as the starter, there has been a collective cry of outage from the fanbase for the most part.  This begs an important question. Why? Did he make far too many errors and a few base-running blunders last season? Sure. Is he the first to do so while playing multiple positions? Absolutely not!

There have been examples of players that started off their careers on a bad note in the field and settled into their roles to become solid players. One example was written over the weekend by Mack's Mets friend and Mets360 blogger Brian Joura. He compares Murphy to Lou Piniella early in his playing career. It's astounding how similar the numbers are.

He committed seven errors in his first full season, while Murphy had 10. He had a .290 AVG with 22 HR and 302 hits in his first 300 games. When compared to Murphy during that same stretch, it's a difference of one hit, two points in the AVG and two home runs in 11 fewer at bats for Murphy. Piniella was a one time All-Star and a Rookie of the Year award winner that played 18 seasons and had a career .291 AVG. For me, however, Sweet Lou is a gauge of Murphy's minimum potential.

Another higher benchmark may be Ryan Sandberg. Believe it or not, Sandberg's numbers through his first 300 games are nearly identical to Daniel Murphy. Through Sandberg's first two full seasons, he played three different position and had 25 errors. That is not a typo.

He had just 15 HR, 102 RBI and a .265 AVG in 314 games combined between the two seasons. As everyone knows, the following year, he won the MVP award and went on to a Hall of Fame career. By comparison, Murphy has had 20 HR, 129 RBI and a .292 AVG in 313 games.

Am I saying Murphy is destined for this greatness? Not at all. But I am saying he is capable settling into his role as a second baseman and using his bat to outweigh his glove. Like Sandberg, Murphy's glove will come around. Will he win a Gold Glove nine times like Ryan Sandberg? Probably not, but the point is he could become a reliable fielder as well.

The Cubs and their fans gave Sandberg a chance. They showed faith in him and he made that faith pay off. The Mets and our fans need to do the same with Murphy. He is more than capable of taking the reigns of the second base position for the next decade if they show him faith now.

He may not develop into a Hall of Fame candidate like Ryan Sandberg, but he may be better than Lou Piniella in his playing days. Only time will tell, but the Mets need to show dedication to him in order to give him that chance to blossom into his potential. If they do, he may make that faith in him pay off ten fold for the organization.

14 comments:

David Groveman said...

Hey Frank,

I didn't realize anyone was upset with Murphy starting at second as much as they were upset that the Wilpons had cut the budget by over $53 Mil (which should also mean fans get a 33% discount on tickets throughout the year too... in a fair world).

In general what I've seen fans talking about with Murphy is that they doubt he can stay healthy because he's developed a habit of getting in the way on double plays and getting hurt as a result.

Mack Ade said...

Mets coaches up into the injury were thrilled with the progress Murph had made playing second.

They especially were happy with his "turning the double play", easily the hardest part of the position

Charles said...

If Murphy stays healthy all year, I think his bat makes him their future second baseman and Reese Havens gets even more pressure to stay healthy. I believe he's that good with the stick. Fans will deal with the errors if he's batting over .300 and knocking doubles all over CitiField. He just needs to get those knees in position during the hard plays. The Mets should have given him a catchers mitt when he was in low A. With his work ethic, he'd have done a great job. He makes all the throws with some juice on it. The Mets are notorious for having all bat but no glove players. They need to start giving these kids the catchers equipment and hopefully something works out.

Mack Ade said...

If you actually take a "projection-like" forecast on the Mets, position, by position...

the totem pole of Murphy, Reese Havens, Danny Muno, and Phillip Evans...

makes 2B one of the least problems on this team

Michael S. said...

I agree Mack...With Murphy, Havens, Valdespin, Muno, and Evans, the organization has a lot of depth at 2B.

Mack Ade said...

what is funny is that every name you listed isn't a natural second baseman...

a scout told me that most of the draftable shortstops only project as a second baseman and most of the draftable second baseman only project as a bus boy

Hobie said...

ANother guy who started out as a clank at 2B--and evolved to a higher reputation--was Joe Morgan.

Stephen Guilbert said...

This is a great article. I still think Murphy is more suited to an AL team that could platoon him as an MIF/3B and then 1B/DH/PH type that gets 300-400 at bats a year and hits .315 with seeing limited playing time in the field. I do not see Danny every being a plus or even serviceable defender in the big leagues, even with his work ethic.

However, I could be wrong. And crazier things have happened in terms of player turnarounds in certain areas. I love his effort and dedication to the game and he will play in the major leagues for years. That much I know. However if the opportunity arose, I would trade him for a prospect.

Mack Ade said...

I talked last year with one of the Mets coaches...

He said that there are many people in baseball that feel Murphy has the talent to lead the league in OPS.

Everyone hates his defense but over 10 teams have inquiries on him, if he'd only stay healthy

Frank Gray said...

All the fans I talked to point out his injuries AND his errors. This was the purpose behind that statement. I wanted people to see that he can right the ship with the errors like other great players have in the past.

Mack Ade said...

Frank, I agree. Errors are a problem.

And, we need more articles like yours.

Stephen Guilbert said...

Yea Frank this is an excellent article.

Lead the league in OPS though? 7.7% walk rate suggests that is unlikely, even if he hits .330 annually.

Mack Ade said...

Stephen:

I'm just quoting a coach... :)

Brian Joura said...

It's one thing to worry about him getting hurt. It's another thing to worry about the errors. Everyone harps on the fact that he had 10 errors last year. What they neglect to understand is that there's more to fielding than just errors. How many balls he gets to is more important than the errors.

If we look at Defensive Runs Saved, Murphy had a +6 last year. The extra balls he gets to are worth more than the ones he muffs.

And it's not just DRS that likes Murphy. UZR had him at +5.7 in the infield, too.