Michael Friere - What Now, Frank and Jon?

A few weeks ago, I started a new series titled “What Now”? The plan is to highlight a specific Mets player (or in this case, two players) that could play an important role during the 2012 season. However, due to a variety of reasons, their future is questionable at best.

Last week’s installment focused on “the face of the franchise,” David Wright. While David’s future is still pretty bright, he is a question mark with regards to how well he is going to play from this point forward, not to mention WHERE he is going to play in the future.

This week, I want to look at two of the newest Mets, Jon Rauch and Frank Francisco. Obviously, the Mets are a bit hamstrung due to financial issues involving ownership. That has led to an unusually quiet offseason, despite the fact that the current Mets roster still has a few holes to fill. Sandy Alderson was able to address the back end of the bullpen by importing two former closers in Rauch and Francisco.

Let’s start with Rauch, since he is most likely ticketed for the seventh or eighth inning, at least from the outset.

Rauch, who is a couple inches short of seven feet tall and almost three hundred pounds, will pitch the 2012 season as a 33 year old, right handed relief pitcher. (With that size, you would think that his true calling should have been the National Basketball Association as opposed to Major League Baseball.) One of the odd things about Rauch is that he does not throw especially hard despite his physical gifts. That and the fact that he also looks like he would be equally at home on a Harley Davidson taking a road trip with the Sons of Anarchy, but I digress.

Looking at his baseball statistics, Jon’s career started in 2002 (minus the 2003 season which he spent in the minor leagues) and has been spent primarily as a relief pitcher. Over that time period, he has pitched for quite a few teams as a middle reliever, as well as few brief stints as a closer.

In nine seasons, Jon has pitched a total of 520.7 innings (approximately 58 innings per year), with a record of 39-31 and 58 saves. In addition, he also posted a WHIP of 1.25 and 7.2 strikeouts per nine innings pitched, while registering approximately 6 WAR. Pretty solid numbers overall, when you consider that he moved around quite a bit and filled a variety of roles.

What is a bit concerning is that the past two seasons have been considerably worse then his career averages, although he did pitch in the American League with the Designated Hitter for those two seasons, after spending a majority of the previous seven years in the National League.

I know, those numbers do not jump off the page and they are certainly nothing to get overly excited about. For my money, I want a bullpen that keeps people off base and can get a strikeout when necessary. Jon does not do either of those things extremely well. But, what are we really talking about for 2012?

The Mets are paying Rauch 3.5 million dollars for 2012 on a one year deal. In exchange, he will be expected to be a “veteran” reliever who will be counted on to fill a middle to late inning role, with the occasional save opportunity. Can he do that for the Mets? I think so and he is an upgrade for that role, compared to what was available out of the bullpen in 2011. I would be generally happy if he came close to his career averages and the Mets did not ask him to do any more then that.

Moving on to Frank Francisco, we are also moving on from a probable middle relief role to the early favorite to close games for the Mets in 2012.

Frank, who is “only” six feet two inches tall and 250 pounds, will pitch the 2012 season as a 32 year old righthander. The Mets signed him to a two-year deal worth $12 million to fill the void in the ninth inning. There also seems to be a bit of baggage with Frank, regarding his temper and a few well publicized altercations with fans and ... perhaps a folding chair?

For starters, I don’t mind my closer having a mean streak. Hell, if he is a bit crazy on top of that, it can be helpful when he takes the mound in the ninth inning with the game on the line. I want the opposing batter to be nervous and unsure of what to expect.

But, scaring the crap out of someone only goes so far. Your closer still needs to be able to throw strikes, keep runners off base and to save ballgames. The question with Frank is can he be a consistent closer, or will his inconsistencies and his potential attitude issues keep him from being successful?

Statistically speaking, Frank has been a reliever his entire career, which has spanned seven seasons mostly in Texas and most recently in Toronto. His career started in 2004, took a small detour in 2005 and most of 2006, before resuming in 2007. He has averaged 68 innings pitched with a 4-4 record and 10 saves, for every 162 games played. Additionally, he also posted an average WHIP of 1.29, while averaging 9.9 strikeouts per nine innings and 5.6 WAR.

OK, so that doesn’t sound much different then Jon Rauch’s stats, right? On the surface, I would agree. But the one statistic that jumps off the page, compared to Rauch’s statistics, is the ability to strike out the opposing batter. Frank can post K’s, to the tune of over one per inning, which has been pretty consistent over his entire career. That is why Terry Collins will use Rauch in middle relief and Francisco in the ninth inning.

So, what do we expect for 2012? I prefer to look at the end of Frank’s 2011 season for a potential preview of 2012. Frank was “lights out” for the Blue Jays in 2011 down the stretch. In 17 appearances between August 4th and the end of the year, Frank threw 18 innings and only allowed three runs, while striking out 16 batters and saving six games for a bad Blue Jays club. That equates to an ERA of 1.50 and a WHIP of 0.94, which are elite level numbers for a closer. The key for Frank, especially during the end of season run of success, was control. The major difference in his WHIP was only issuing four walks during that time period.

While I don’t expect Frank to be quite that good, I think if the Mets use him properly (one-inning stints), he can be quite effective (control permitting) and help stabilize the end of games, which was a huge issue last year.

Best case scenario, Rauch and Francisco (paired with the rest of the revamped bullpen) should be able to consistently hold leads and close out games IF the starting rotation can get them the opportunities. I view both of them as solid signings who will be effective "place holders" for a season or two, until the next wave of pitching talent starts to reach Citi Field from the minor leagues.

Plus, the better they perform in 2012, the more valuable they become as potential trade chips late in the season.

Random Thought

What the heck were the Tigers thinking? Sure, Prince Fielder is a nice offensive addition, but he is a below average defensive player with serious conditioning issues. Ignoring the 200+ million dollar deal for a second, do you expect him to be the same all around player by the middle and the end of the nine year deal?

Plus, that pushes Miguel Cabrera back to third base! UGH! I wonder what Justin Verlander and the rest of the excellent Tiger pitching staff think of those two corner infielders from a defensive standpoint? It may resemble a Wednesday night, slow pitch softball game.

I miss the Mets being more aggressive in the offseason, but avoiding "train wreck" signings like this is one benefit of fiscal sanity.