5/28/13

Lonestar Dugout - Mock

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Pick
1
Houston Astros
Player: Mark Appel
Height: 6-5
Weight: 215
Age (Draft Day): 21.89
Current Team: Stanford
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Jeff Luhnow
Scouting Director: Mike Elias
Draft Slot Amount: $7,790,400
ANALYSIS: I'm not buying all the buzz of momentum for Oklahoma RHP Jonathan Gray or North Carolina 3B Colin Moran at this pick. I reported on twitter earlier this week that Astros GM Jeff Luhnow and Owner Jim Crane were recently spotted scouting Moran (Luhnow had been in multiple times earlier in the year) and it appears if the Astros want to go cheap at #1 overall to spend their bonus pool elsewhere, that Moran is the pick. The other three real options at #1 (Appel, Gray and San Diego 3B Kris Bryant) all appear to be ticketed for the top three picks ($5-8 million bonus each) unless a club in the top three opts to go cheap or pick one of the next few players (no real reason to believe they will). So none of those three are motivated to give a big discount to entice the Astros and I don't think they will. So some people assume that means Moran is the pick since last year the Astros took the least expensive of the top group of talent in Carlos Correa. The difference is the top of this class isn't generally considered to be three players whereas last year's group was generally considered to have eight.
I have Appel as the clear top talent, the many scouts I've spoken with agree and in the case one of the scouts prefer Gray or Bryant, they have to go through a pretty extensive list of conditions and qualifications. This week, I've been hearing the Astros current posture is "exploring every alternative to Appel" and the buzz coming out of Houston matches the deliberate, measured approach they took last season to keep everyone in the dark, maximizing their negotiating leverage with misdirection and hoping one of their targets blinks. I expect some lively internal discussion in the Astros draft meetings the next two weeks that eventually will end up on "we've gotta take the best player here" and realizing there's only one correct answer this year when the price tags are all comparable.


Pick
2
Chicago Cubs
Player: Jonathan Gray
Height: 6-4
Weight: 240
Age (Draft Day): 21.59
Current Team: Oklahoma
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Jed Hoyer
Scouting Director: Jaron Madison
Draft Slot Amount: $6,708,400
ANALYSIS:The Cubs are in a tough spot here, as I've heard all spring that Appel is their guy and I don't think he gets to their pick short of some drastic changes to signabilities of a few players. I don't think it's a foregone conclusion that they would take Gray in this scenario, with Bryant and Frazier still very much in the discussion. A quick-moving power arm for a reloading club that's taken hitters with it's most recent high picks makes the most sense.


Pick
3
Colorado Rockies
Player: Kris Bryant
Height: 6-5
Weight: 215
Age (Draft Day): 21.42
Current Team: San Diego
Position: 3B
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Dan O'Dowd
Scouting Director: Bill Schmidt
Draft Slot Amount: $5,626,400
ANALYSIS:This is another pick that seems like an easy call of whichever of the top three makes it to them, but Colorado would like to stock up on pitching, so there's still some chance here the Rockies could divert from Kris Bryant. Kohl Stewart and Braden Shipley being viable options at the right price, though it still seems like a long shot here. In the end, you have to draft on talent this high in the draft and Bryant's plus-plus power and scorching spring is too good to pass up. Colin Moran has been mentioned as a cut-rate option here as well.


Pick
4
Minnesota Twins
Player: Kohl Stewart
Height: 6-3
Weight: 195
Age (Draft Day): 18.66
Current Team: St. Pius X HS (TX)
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Terry Ryan
Scouting Director: Deron Johnson
Draft Slot Amount: $4,544,400
ANALYSIS: This is another pick that the industry seems to think is a foregone conclusion if things shake out as I have them, but I gets antsy when a pick looks like a slam dunk this early. Reese McGuire is the hot rumor but one source indicated this week that he thinks the McGuire rumors are just misdirection to keep Stewart's price down. Stewart's dual-sport leverage as a QB recruit for Texas A&M could spike his price tag if he's confident he's a top-5 pick. Trey Ball's name has also come up but it would be very hard to justify taking him this high.


Pick
5
Cleveland Indians
Player: Colin Moran
Height: 6-4
Weight: 220
Age (Draft Day): 20.68
Current Team: North Carolina
Position: 3B
Bats: L
Throws: R

General Manager: Chris Antonetti
Scouting Director: Brad Grant
Draft Slot Amount: $3,787,000
ANALYSIS: The last of the picks that anyone in the industry has a feel for ends here, as this should be Moran's floor. Cleveland has been in heavy on Moran all spring with GM Chris Antonetti in to see him late in the season. Shipley could be an option here, but it looks like Cleveland will just take whoever falls to them of the top group of five players I have projected here with a preference for a college player but definitely excited to grab Stewart or Bryant if they're the ones that fall.


Pick
6
Miami Marlins
Height: 6-2
Weight: 180
Age (Draft Day): 21.29
Current Team: Nevada
Position: P
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Michael Hill
Scouting Director: Stan Meek
Draft Slot Amount: $3,516,500
ANALYSIS: When there isn't an obvious Oklahoma player to tie to them, the Marlins can be very hard to predict and that's the case this year. I've heard college/high school and pitcher/hitter tied to Miami with rumors they'll go cheap or just take the player they like most. This is the high water point for D.J. Peterson and the realistic ceiling for Trey Ball. I've also heard Clint Frazier here some but think the Fish have a preference for a more conventionally talented player like Shipley, as long as one of the top five (Kohl Stewart specifically), aren't available here. Reese McGuire is also a dark horse but Miami may be scared off from taking a prep catcher in the top 10 after the Kyle Skipworth experience.


Pick
7
Boston Red Sox
Player: Clint Frazier
Height: 6-0
Weight: 190
Age (Draft Day): 18.75
Current Team: Loganville HS (GA)
Position: CF
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Ben Cherington
Scouting Director: Amiel Sawdaye
Draft Slot Amount: $3,246,000
ANALYSIS: I've heard all spring the Red Sox are all over Clint Frazier and are looking for a huge upside guy to take with what they hope is their last top 10 pick for a long time. I have Frazier in the group with Appel-Gray-Bryant as the media's "Big Three" is a Big Four for me. Boston has also been in on Shipley, Stewart and Moran but would be doing back flips to get Frazier here, as well they should be.


Pick
8
Kansas City Royals
Player: D.J. Peterson
Height: 6-1
Weight: 210
Age (Draft Day): 21.43
Current Team: New Mexico
Position: 1B
Bats: R
Throws: R

General Manager: Dayton Moore
Scouting Director: Lonnie Goldberg
Draft Slot Amount: $3,137,800
ANALYSIS: I've heard the Royals both tied and not tied to Ryne Stanek, who went to a nearby Kansas high school, but I also saw a recent Stanek start and he just flat doesn't belong this high. The Royals have shifted into win-now mode and while historically prep players like Trey Ball and Reese McGuire (who they've been tied to) fit their type, I'm hearing the Royals want a quick-to-the-majors talent. Peterson belongs here on talent and is most often comped to Billy Butler, an outcome I think Royals fans would like after losing Wil Myers.


Pick
9
Pittsburgh Pirates
Player: Reese McGuire
Height: 6-1
Weight: 190
Age (Draft Day): 18.26
Current Team: Kentwood HS (WA)
Position: C
Bats: L
Throws: R

General Manager: Neal Huntington
Scouting Director: Joe DelliCarri
Draft Slot Amount: $3,029,600
ANALYSIS: The Pirates have been very aggressive along with the team that picks right behind them, Toronto, on McGuire. With another pick at 14, if the Pirates want McGuire they have to take him here and that appears to be what they'll do. Pittsburgh was tied to Moran all spring but that's not happening and while the Pirates have also been tied to Austin Meadows and Hunter Renfroe, both of whom could still make it to 14 and are lower on their board than McGuire.


Pick
10
Toronto Blue Jays
Player: Trey Ball
Height: 6-6
Weight: 185
Age (Draft Day): 18.94
Current Team: New Castle HS (IN)
Position: P
Bats: L
Throws: L

General Manager: Alex Anthopoulos
Scouting Director: Brian Parker
Draft Slot Amount: $2,921,400
ANALYSIS: After missing out on McGuire, most leads have Toronto looking at a prep player for this pick. Trey Ball has been mentioned at a lot of the top 10 picks with him landing here making a lot of sense. J.P. Crawford has been scouted heavily by the Jays and is a real factor at this pick, along with Shipley and Frazier, who both should be gone by this pick. Austin Meadows also could fit here but seems like a secondary option along with Dominic Smith, behind Ball and Crawford. The Jays are about upside and the 6'6 lefty that's been up to 94 this spring fits the bill.


Pick
11
New York Mets

Height: 6-3
Weight: 220
Age (Draft Day): 18.09
Current Team: Grayson HS (GA)
Position: OF
Bats: L
Throws: L

General Manager: Sandy Alderson
Scouting Director: Tommy Tanous
Draft Slot Amount: $2,840,300
ANALYSIS: The Mets appear to have been able to narrow down their realistic draft board to Meadows, Peterson and Renfroe, in that order. For this scenario, KC takes Peterson and Pittsburgh/Toronto pass on Meadows. I think this is Meadows floor, although his market has been tough to pin down all spring. Some other players like Phil Ervin have been tied to the Mets but shouldn't

The rest...   http://rangers.scout.com/2/1294726.html 

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