7/2/17

Robert Flax - Out There Trade Proposal

5 comments

Mets to Red Sox:  

    IF Astrubel Cabrera
    RP Addison Reed
Red Sox to Mets: 

    3B Pablo Sandavol
    3B  Rafael Devers
    P Roniel Rhodes
    P Stephen Nogosek 
       
+ $20 mm (after this year Sandoval has $40mm remaining, receiving $2mm/2017, $6.6mil/2018, $9.6mil/2019, $4mil/2020)
Net payroll:

     0 for 2017
    Mets up $10mil (net Cabrera option) in 2018
     $9mil/2019
      $1mil/2020
My thought process is:

   Mets buy Devers for $20mm in future salary obligations they take on and Rhodes, Nogosek for the 2 Reed/Cabrera (which is about right, 1 good pitching prospects a bit away from the majors and one lottery pick pitcher/bp arm).  And its revenue neutral for both teams in 2017.

In 2018 if David Wright comes back, Sandoval can provide insurance against injury and also platoon with Smith at 1st base.  Otherwise you try him at 3rd base until Devers is ready (post super 2, 2018).  If he has a comeback year through the rest of 2017 and into 2018 as a $10mm per year player he is tradeable to another team as an $8mm per year player.  

Worse case scenario, the Mets eat $22mm over 3 years. Which would be more like 17 if it goes to plan or goes to crap.  Even they can amortize 17 mm over 2.5 years and now have a 3rd baseman for the future.   The sad assumption is Wright has retired by the start of 2019 regardless.
As for the Sox, they get $10mm in salary flexibility back per year going forward, get rid of an albatross contract, stay revenue neutral this year, plus have Cabrera play 3rd for a year until Dalbec is ready with a cheap option and get Reed to dramatically help their bullpen.  They would be giving up a big prospect but Dombrowski overpays every year for a chance to win.
Who says no?  

5 comments:

Mack Ade said...

Robert -

Thanks for the 'guest post'.

I can't see the Mets getting this much for these two guys that still have a bunch of money left on their contract.

Me? I'd be happy with Devens even up for these two. IF Boston would take on the remaining money owed on both their contracts.

Reese Kaplan said...

Conditioning has never been Sandoval's strong suit and as he gets older I would expect him to spend plenty of time on the DL (which would make him suitable for the Mets given their overall state of health). I'm with Mack -- go after Devers for the future.

Eddie Corona said...

Well thought out post.. if we can land a legit 3b prospect such as you have laid out .... we should ... this is big market approach... unfortunately the mets are a big market team with small thinking

Robb said...

I figured the only way it works for the SOx is if you take the money otherwise, why would they bother.

Happy 4th y'all

David Rubin said...

Robert- really well thought out guest post. I wish this could happen (and see my response to this Friday's weekly question) but sadly 1.) BoSox won't trade Devers because he's their 3B of the future once they find where Andrew B will reside at for the next 6 years, and 2.) the BoSox don't need to dump salary and give up their top hitting prospect in the deal unless they were receiving back a top prospect in return. But I would LOVE the deal to happen, even with Panda's huge contract and permanent residence on the DL. (The cost of the Mets post-game spreads would definitely rise significantly!!!)

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