Good morning.
Well, the 2019 draft is upon us.
I, for one, look for a whole new
advanced direction from the Mets ‘suits’ in the war room. Gone are many of the old time scout Clint Eastwood types that are always looking for ‘trouble
with the curve’.
In their place is Allard Baird, AGM Scouting & Player Development, Omar Minaya, Special Assistant to the GM, Mark Tramuta, Director of Amateur Scouting, who will
be in charge of many other analytical minded newcomers in the organization.
Still, it remains a stat game, be it
old school or new age. Case in point would be Arizona State outfielder, Hunter Bishop, who wasn’t on one mock draft board
before the real season started. Then, he goes out and hits 22 home runs, with
61-RBIs in 51 games played, and now he’s mocking as one of the top 10 players
that will be picked this year.
Other
things changed quickly as the season opened and progressed. The mocks were
filled with LHP and SS, but both in recent mocks have had only two of each in
their first round.
Colleyville
Heritage (TX) HS SS Bobby Witt Jr. was the
number one pick in the first 10 mocks. Now, he remains in the top five, but not
numero uno.
And
then there were the two catchers. Oregon State’s Adley
Rutschman and Baylor’s Shea Langeliers knocked
Witt off the perch and became projected as the first 1.1 and 1.2 catcher to
ever be drafted in this game.
Well, Langeliers (.311, 6-HR) has fallen to the middle
of the first round while Rutschman still holds down 1.1.
Then
there is the flake story of RHP Carter Stewart.
First, he gets drafted 8th overall last year, by the Braves, but
decided to pass on that after the team expressed concern that Stewart had with an
asymptomatic wrist issue. He chose to go to junior college instead.
This again
made him eligible for the draft (BA has him ranked as the 38th top
prospect. Is this making the dude happy? So, he signs with Scott Boras and
announced this week that he is passing on the draft after signing with Fukuoka
SoftBank Hawks of the Japanese Pacific League, for $7mil over six years.
Generally,
the experts will tell you that this is one of the weaker drafts in history.
High school bats and arms are especially weak. And the college pitching class
is the weakest in years. Only college bats seem to be stepping to the plate.
So,
who would my pick be at #12 in the first round?
Well,
first, let’s eliminate the players that will not be around by then.
TCU Nick
Lodolo is the only pitcher, left or right (he’s a lefty) that seems to a
lock in the top 10. Lodolo pitched all season for a team that barely kept its
head above water, and yet he went 2.18, 0.95, with a hefty 113-Ks in 91-IP. I
have him at 1.10.
C Adley
Rutschman will be 1.1 in the 2019 draft. If not, he’s guaranteed to be
gone early.
I’m projecting Cal 1B Andrew Vaughn at 1.3 in the draft. Call it the Pete
Alonso/Seth Beer factor, but this the top bat in the draft and it doesn’t
matter if he’s a first baseman. .385 with 15-HRs will do that.
SS Bobby Witt
Jr. may not be the first player picked, but he too will be one of the
top five players picked (I have him at 1.2).
Another SS, Blessed Trinity Catholic
(GA) HS C.J. Abrams will be in the top 10 (I
have him at 1.7)
Three outfielders will now be in the
top 10:
I have Haggerty (FL) HS Riley Greene in the same place I had him all mock
season… 1.5
Vanderbilt JJ
Bledsay has solidly become a favorite for one of the first ten picks.
And Arizona State’s Hunter Bishop keeps homering and is now solidly at 1.6
Here’s your top eight players picked:
Rutschman,
Witt, Vaughn, Greene, Bishop, Abrams, Lodolo, Bledsay
We pick 1.12.
So… who will be the three players
picked before we get a chance to send our card to the podium?
Well, the norm is that teams always
pick ‘the best player available’ when their turn comes up in the first round…
and yet, history has proven that isn’t the case for all teams. A few go for the
player they feel can fill a critical position needed in the future (the Mets
are heavily rumored to be doing this in June by going for a power starter
regardless as to who else is on the board).
I can only venture to guess on the
next three players based on ‘best player available'.
So…
At 1.9, I have West Virginia’s RHP Alek Manoah. Manoah has started 14 games for the Mountaineers and has an impressive stat line of: 8-3,
1.91, 94.1-IP, a whopping 125-Ks. 6-6, 260. EDGE rusher size.
At 1.10, I have UNLV’s SS, Bryson Stott. Stott
has really shot up the mocks once their season started. The Rebels have been
playing .500 ball all season, but that hasn’t stopped Stott: 55-G, 211-AB,
.360/.491/.611/1.102, 10-HR.
At 1.11, I have Lake Travis (TX) HS
3B, Brett Baty. 6-3, 210, LHH. Right now, the
top high school player in the state of Texas. Has quality hit ability with huge
power potential (I have him winding up at first base).
And we get to 1.12
I’m moving away from both the best
player available directions, as well as the best stud college starter… which happens
to be the same person… Kentucky LHP Zack Thompson.
No, I’m going for a position player…
at a position you rarely get a chance to find a stud coming out of college…
Baylor catcher Shea Langeliers.
Langelier was consistently 2-1 with
Adley Rutschman throughout most of the mock draft season, but he fell to the
midway portion of the first round after he broke a hamate bone. He has now
bounced back strongly and shows no evidence of the injury.
He is a + catcher, a + thrower, and
projects to hit around .300. There is questions about his power but a defense
first .300 hitter is alright in my book. Stat line as of 5-24: 40-G, .310/.380/.494/.874,
7-HR.
This is a guy you can start off in
Brooklyn, open next year in St. Lucie, and be ready for Flushing latest in 2021.
That’s my pick and I’m sticking with
it.
5 comments:
If Langeliers is healthy, I would be open to him being the Mets pick.
Hunter Bishop sounds good.
And if there is real confidence that we could pick a pitcher more dominant that David Peterson, I'd be OK with that, too.
I just want power pitching and hitting. To my point yesterday, the Mets in the third round in 2016 selected low power Blake Tiberi shortly before the Red Sox picked "a homer every 16 at bats" Bobby Dalbec...who is more likely to have a real major league impact? The power guy. Go power, power, power.
Power arms eventually lead to a power pen, too, and the Mets pen has been in the bottom quintile the last 2 seasons - and it costs them seasons. They should have signed Kimbrel and not Familia, but had they developed enough power arms, they'd could have brought someone up instead.
Nice info Mack. The Mets have several catchers in the system but really no outfielders. Since BVW chose to not protect Kelenic in the Cano trade, the Mets have nothing in the upper pipeline for the grassy area. I would take the catcher if I felt he were by far the most talented player available. However, players are usually grouped in rankings - where one player has a slim advantage in ranking over another - and if there is an outfielder in that group, he’d be my first choice.
Tex -
I'm a power starter guy and I've been calling for the Mets to pick the lefty Thompson all mock season, but if Langelier falls to 1.12, you can't pass on him if he is healthy.
The best arm in the draft and a power swing to boot.
As for outfiellders, I have a post coming out tomorrow prior to the draft that breaks out the (IMO) top 10 players, by position, in the draft.
Here are the outfielders on that list:
1. Riley Greene Haggerty HS (FL) (will be gone by 1.12)
2. JJ Bledsay Vanderbilt (will be gone by 1.12)
3. Hunter Bishop Arizona State (will be gone by 1.12)
4. Corbin Carroll Lakeside (WA) HS
5. Kameron Misner Missouri (power bat)
6. Maurice Hampton Memphis Univ. School (TN)
7. Mike Toglia UCLA (power bat)
8. Jerrion Ealy Jackson Prep (MS) (football star)
9. Will Robinson Creighton
10. Dominic Fletcher Arkansas
Thank you Mack. Looking forward to it.
RHP Alek Manoah looked good today
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