The rules of free agency can be especially beneficial to one player, especially hurtful to another.
Why? It all comes down to timing.
Zack Wheeler has come off a year and a half of career strenght as he heads into free agency.
After a bad start to 2018, he finished 2018 very strong, and after a brief, slow start to 2019, he had a solid finish.
As Macks Mets writer Tony Plate noted last week on Tuesday, Zack's "last eleven starts of (2018) consisted of a 9-1 record with a 1.68 Earned Run Average and 73 strikeouts over 75 innings. He went 11-8 with a 3.96 earned run average last year (in 2019)."
That, plus a 97 MPH fastball from a now-healthy arm that was not healthy for a long period of time earlier in his career, could earn him 5 years, $100 million as a free agent this off season.
Yep, Tommy John surgery caused him to miss 2015 and 2016 altogether, and go just 86 innings, 3-7, 5.21 in his short return in 2017. He heads into free agency having just pitched 126 starts in the big leagues, but fortunately with 60 of those over the past two seasons (2018-19). And healthy.
Matt Harvey has been far less fortunate. His first season + with the Mets, in 2013, he was the Dark Knight indeed...36 starts, 2.48 ERA, 228 IP, 261 Ks, and a sub 1.00 WHIP - and earned very little.
Tommy John hit in late 2013, causing him to miss the rest of 2013 and all of 2014.
In 2015, he returned. He went 13-8, 2.71 in 189 innings. While Zack was rehabbing, Matt got to pitch in a full round of playoffs, including the World Series.
By season's end, he still had not been compensated much ($2.2 million for 2012 thru 2015). And, perhaps, his total of 216 innings in 2015 in the season he was returning from TJS set him up for later injuries - maybe he should have shut himself down - but he was caught up in the World Series adventure - hard to say no - but perhaps very costly in future earnings).
After 2015, he encountered serious thoracic issues, requiring another surgery, a less-than-full recovery, and from 2016 forward, he has been...well, lousy.
So, Zack's injuries ate up time towards free agency while recovering, and he found himself as a solid 2/3 starter with 97 MPH heat just as he glided into free agency, and he'll soon be rich.
Matt Harvey's greatness coincided with his years well before free agency - as a result, short of a career miracle, he'll earn drastically less in his career than Zack Wheeler.
Matt has made a not-insignificant $30.7 million Including his signing bonus) in his career (per Spotrac)...but may be finished. Zack, per Spotrac, and starting his MLB career a year later, has made $13.8 million (a year less, pooper early performanc eand long injuries).
But if he gets 5 years, $100 million, he will be nearly $90 million ahead of Harvey in ultimate baseball career earnings. Ultimately, ultimate career earnings are where it's at, baby.
Anyone who watched peak Harvey of 2012-2015 and compared him to peak (2018-19) Zack Wheeler could only conclude one thing:
Harvey at his peak was better, perhaps much better - than Zack at his best.
Yet, Zack will soon be far richer from baseball than Harvey most likely will ever be. Why? Due to baseball's compensation rules, where longevity and health at time of free agency is worth a whole lot more per inning than anything a guy did in his first few seasons.
Their career records to date, by the way, are quite comparable:
Wheeler: 44-38, 3.77 ERA, 749 IP. 726 K, 1.30 WHIP, 10.2 WAR.
Harvey: 44-49, 4.04 ERA, 827 IP, 762 K, 1.23 WHIP, 10.3 WAR. (Harvey was the precursor to Jake deGrom in terms of pitching terrifically well in 2012-15, but only going 25-20 over that period due to poor offensive and pen support, hence his 44-49 career record is quite deceiving).
My conclusion:
Baseball's pay structure can be very, very unfair.
If you don't believe me - ask Matt Harvey.
8 comments:
Brodie decided to be the bIg Dog last year and came out of the box with the big blockbuster early.
It has haunted him ever since.
He's now trying to wait for the market to price itself to him and he is missing out on everything on the shelves.
A potential major dumpster fire.
That is indeed the conundrum. Acting quickly is good if the players perform. Waiting is good if there is a surplus of resources available. I will say there is not a surplus at every position, so you can do both.
Reese -
I truly don't expect much this off season.
The team came close with a very talented young core.
They also was roasted alive for trading 4 chips away for almost nothing.
Free agents are anything but free...back up the Brinks truck. When you miss, you miss BIG.
Mack, BVW has gone from Big Dog to Big Fog.
Most Mets fans seem pessimistic this off season. Hopefully there will be pleasant surprises.
Last year when the Agent of Doom made the Cano/Diaz trade I said that would be a regrettable trade for years to come. Just wait until Kelenic wins ROY.
Worse, the money being paid to Cano could have been used to retain Wheeler.
Mets timing? either they try to impress and overpay or wait for the players no team wants.
Viper, well put.
NYM
JD Davis has to be one of the most "press dissed players" that the Mets have ever had. The guy is an amazing player, an emerging star, one with power and batting average capability (already) being that he is still such a younger player.
Josh Hader on Milwaukee is a terrific move for the Mets. But breaking up the outstanding "kid core" to grab him might not have to be so since the Brewers actually need more than just a one player acquisition to compete within their own conference even. Maybe a package then. Like Stroman, Gsellman, Dominic Smith, and Andres Gimenez (for instance here) might work. Then get a Padres can't miss AAA lefty starter (they have like three there) and either a new third baseman or left fielder depending on where JD Davis is going to start in 2020.
This all then becomes a top tier team within the NL.
NYM
Their true strength now is their skill level, aggressiveness, and their excellent youthfulness. Cano, deGrom, and Ramos are the veteran leadership it needs. The kids here now starting are unusual in that they play like veterans and are smart enough to make veteran type adjustments to their own respective games. Right away, they hit for average, power, and played the game the right way and with superb aggressiveness and unit cohesion, Not to forget team chemistry, which was off the charts. Keep this going by adding to it and not subtracting from it,
NYK
Such an obvious thing here. It isn't a redo type team. They just need the shear balance of attack offensively and the chance to gel. That balance point is deficient right now at only the center position.
Sure their fourth quarter letdowns are well documented, it's being so young. If they can get even a Goga Bitadze (Indiana, 20 years old) to start at center, and then keep him with their starting young core of Morris, Randle, Barrett, and either Nitkilina or Ellington, then by the All Star Break they should be ready for show.
The problem here really isn't the coach, the GM, the president or even James Dolan, but rather their inability to see this one problem at the center position.
Maybe Smith Jr for Goga makes this all workout like butter. It's worth a try.
Post a Comment