Reese Kaplan -- A Winter Meetings Game Plan

We’re less than a week out from the annual Winter Meetings which this year are taking place in San Diego, California. Thus far we’ve seen executives from other teams move aggressively to secure the services of various players, including relievers Will Smith,  Chris Martin, A.J. Cole and Drew Pomeranz, catchers Yasmani Grandal, Yan Gomes, Mike Zunino and Travis d’Arnaud, and utilityman Josh Harrison.  Swingman Jose De Leon was traded by Tampa and the Padres pulled off a swap with Milwaukee. 

To be fair, Brodie Van Wagenen has been busy, too.  Let’s see.  He released Drew Gagnon and plucked sore-armed Chasen Shreve released by St. Louis for a minor league deal.  He did add one player to the 40-man roster with limited major league experience – putting in a waiver claim for former top prospect Stephen Gonsalves of the Twins who has a sparkling 2.50 ERA for his minor league career but hit a 4.15 wall in AAA last year and a worse 6.57 in 24 big league innings.  He’s likely going to be in AAA since he has not yet had a full season there. 

So, one of these things is not like the other.  In the first group you have GMs actively trying to improve their rosters and in the second group you have Sandy Alderson flashbacks with scrap heap pickups being the “action” of the off-season.  Going into 2020 everyone knows the priorities already – improving the bullpen, defense, speed, a backup catcher and 5^th starter.  While there’s no law against waiting to make these moves further along in the Hot Stove season, similarly there’s no reason deals can’t be struck earlier if you want to assure yourself of obtaining the players you desire who may not be available but the time you extricate your hands from beneath your posterior to dial the phone and make inquiries. 

Stretching out low-cost Seth Lugo into a starting role (where he’s failed in the past) makes economic sense if you’re intending to obtain multiple Justin Wilson types – mid tier relievers at $5 million or so per year prices.  That is for sure cheaper than going after proven starting pitchers, but is it the smart move?

Similarly, the Mets have a bit of dead money on their roster, including surprising video star Yoenis Cespedes ($29.5 million), Jed “Waldo” Lowrie ($11.5 million), and you could probably throw in Jeurys Familia as well ($11.7 million in 2020 and $17.7 million in 2021).  Then, of course, there’s the Moby Dick of contracts – Robinson Cano.  He is owed $24 million per year for each of the next four years – his ages 37, 38, 39 and 40 seasons. 

In the outfield, you have a few good hitters with no place to play in J.D. Davis and Dom Smith.  Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto are better defensively so you would think they will play.  Then there’s .321 career hitter Jeff McNeil who turned himself into a credible outfielder as well.  Right now there appears to be no room at the inn on the dirt with Pete Alonso, Robinson Cano, Amed Rosario and $11.5 million man Jed Lowrie penciled in there. 

For catcher you have the good bat of Wilson Ramos and the good defense of Tomas Nido.  Neither are ideal and pitchers have certainly been vocal about preferring to pitch to the stronger catcher. 

Of course, it’s easy to play armchair GM and if you accept the Metsian reality that they will not go over the luxury cap threshold, then there’s precious little money available.  That means you have to fortify your roster through trades or get highly creative in how you get some more budget dollars to spend.  

The Mets have been loathe to pay down contracts, but to me it seems the obvious route for BVW to take if he’s serious about plugging holes and improving the roster.  If you put 50% down on the white elephant collection in the previous paragraph, you’d reduce your salary obligation for that quartet due $70 million plus in 2020 and instead make it $35 million and create some space on the roster.  Let’s assume they found someone to take on these contracts (I know, I know – a lot easier said than done).  What would the team look like?

Well, you could insert Jeff McNeil at 2^nd base, J.D. Davis at 3^rd and open up LF for Dom Smith.  Plus you would have $35 million plus whatever is currently available to plug the holes in the rotation, the bullpen and behind the dish. 

The defense in that scenario is not great (particularly at 3B and LF), but that money saved could be used to trade for or sign more expensive players.  Many want the Mets to go over the Luxury Tax level for one year knowing Cespedes, Wright and other money is coming off the books.  That’s a way to go, too, but I wouldn’t hold my breath on that one either.