Who will Steve Matz emulate?
After his TJS-delayed major league debut, Steve Matz got off to his career with the Mets like a house on fire.
But his surge period ended, and through his age 28 season he is 31-36, 4.05, WHIP of 1.30.
I am also surprised that after a minor league career in which he allowed just 17 HRs in 397 IP (one every 23.3 IP), he has 82 homers in 549 big league innings, or 1 every 6.7 innings, certainly due to far superior hitters, but also an unusual gap between majors and minors HRs-allowed rate.
Jon Niese, surprisingly to me just 5 years older than Matz, was 61-61, 3.91 through his age 28 season, with a 1.41 WHIP. Niese did a better job of keeping the ball in the park to that point of his career, with just a homer allowed every 10 innings.
Niese had a horrible age 29 season, and never made it to MLB age 30. I think Matz has both health and better stuff than did Niese. So, who else in Mets history might be a comp?
Sid Fernandez, not slowed by TJS, was 79-62, with a 3.27 ERA in 1,247 IP through his age 28 season.
Over his next 5 seasons, and a 5 inning finale in his 6th, he was 35-34, ERA in the mid 3's, and done.
Sid's best occurred through age 28. Hopefully, Steve Matz, will be much more successful after age 28, like this next guy:
Al Leiter.
Leiter, through his age 28 season was just 22-21. From age 29 through age 39, Leiter was 140-111, to end up at 162-132 career. Matz could surely embrace that sort of production after 28. Leiter also had a 3.48 ERA from his age 29 through 38 seasons, before a bad au revoir season in 2005 at age 39. He also was stingy on the long ball, allowing just a HR every 12.1 IP. while of course pitching in a somewhat less HR-heavy era.
I think of the 3 comps to Sir Stevie, any Mets fan is hoping for Matz to be the next Al Leiter post-age 28. I think the difference so far between Steve and Al was Al's bulldog determination. He got fired up, but in a way that seemed to help him more than Matz's emotions do.
Time will tell. Hopefully, some day, we will be writing about Matz wrapping up a very successful career in 2030.
4 comments:
It's really hard to say. Whenever Matz takes the mound, you never know if you're going to get the stingy hard thrower or someone serving up meatballs. Consistency is what's missing and that will have to change or he will never amount to much.
Reese is right.
Especially in the early innings.
Gentlemen, Jake is high on Matz. Hopefully, Matz gets over the hump in this short season.
Maybe he'll morph into Randy Johnson. 😁
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