11/23/20

Tom Brennan - HIGH LEVEL, WHAT IT TAKES TO MAKE THE WORLD SERIES FOR THE METS



This article is not about specific player moves the Mets need to make to get to the World Series.  

That's your job, sir or madam.  You're the GM, not me.

It is instead simply looking at the overall production of teams that made the World Series and the comparable recent production of the Mets.

Looking at the regular season for the past 4 years for World Series participants, which have included the Dodgers 3 times, the Astros twice, and the Red Sox, Nats, and Rays, those 8 years' worth of team participation averaged out to this:

5.29 runs scored per game

3.62 runs allowed per game.

Net differential: 1.67 more runs per game scored than allowed.

The Dodgers this year were a freaky 2.27 runs more scored than allowed per game, so let's normalize the variance and say that a normal variance the past 4 seasons is around 1.60 runs per game. 

The Mets over those 4 seasons did this:

4.59 runs scored per game

4.84 runs allowed per game.

That's negative 0.25 runs per game, for those of you who are mathematically challenged.

The last Mets two seasons are the most relevant, since many of the players are still here.

4.83 runs scored per game.

4.84 runs allowed per game. 

Most pertinent, of course, is the most recent year, 2020, in which the Mets' scored 4.77 and allowed 5.13 per game, a deficit of 0.36 runs per game.

So, essentially, to get into the World Series, a team most likely needs to score 1.6 runs more than allowed per game; thus, the Mets have to improve 2020's nearly (0.40) runs per game deficit performance by about 2 runs to make the World Series in 2021, a mighty tall order.

The biggest culprit, of course, has been the ghastly pitching.

Over the past 4 years, one and a quarter runs allowed per game by the pitchers than their counterparts on World Series teams.  

So, to get to the World Series in 2021, drastic Mets' improvements are needed.  

That need is most notable in the pitching category.  

If you remove Messrs. deGrom and Diaz from the 2020 calculations, all other Mets pitchers allowed 6.04 runs per 9 innings.  

Recent birthday boy Jay Hook (happy 84th, Jay) may have gone 12-34 with the dreadful early 1960s Mets, but his Mets ERA was 5.22.  A 5.22 ERA was better than Wacha, Porcello, Matz, etc. 

As I said, drastic fixes are needed.

The Mets were 13th overall in scoring per game in 2020 at 4.77 runs, which could easily have improved to 5 runs per game with better clutch hitting, but their division rival Braves scored 5.8 runs per game, and scored one full run more per game than allowed in 2020.  

An upgrade at catcher could help, a CF like Springer too, and a Lindor at SS as well, perhaps.

But the pitching picture is abysmal as of today, even with Marcus the Stroman back in the fold.  Who is ready from the Mets minors to REALLY help?  I'm not talking about making the Mets in 2021; I am saying REALLY help.   I frankly can't think of anyone in that regard besides, say, Tom Szapucki.

Take off your hometown rah-rah hat and be objective for once in your life, for Pete's sake, and it seems like 2 more quality starters and 2 really solid relievers are needed to be added - at a minimum - in order to get last year's 5.13 runs allowed per game down around the World Series participant teams' average of 3.62.

All in all, the Mets' goal should be to improve their runs differential in 2021 by 2 runs per game.

I don't know if that is possible, frankly.   i think it is, though.

A big checkbook will sure help.  Made larger by Cano's $20 million in found money.

But if you can't make up 2 full runs next season, what might work, at a minimum?

The 2019 Nats had a positive differential of 0.92 runs per game and the 2020 Rays a positive differential of 1.00 runs per game, but there was some good fortune involved: the wild card Nats got pitching-hot in the playoffs and the Rays got a Randy-the-Rocket-Launcher Arozarena super-boost.  

So, to get into the playoffs and be lucky enough to make the World Series, if you can't improve by 2 runs per game, probably at least 1.5 runs per game improvement is necessary just to get around the level that the Nats and Rays found success at.

That has to be Steve Cohen's high level minimum goal, then, as I see it: a 1.5 run per game net improvement in 2021.




Is Tom Cruise around?  Sounds a bit like Mission Impossible.  

Not even sure Ethan Hunt could pull that one off. 

But...Super Agent Sandy, and Double Oh Cohen will get it done.

Because 2021 with Steve Cohen, and the Cano $20 million now added in, the situation becomes Mission Likely.

11 comments:

Dallas said...

I don't just want the World Series. Sounds silly I know, I want to be a contender every year with a chance at one. I don't want to make huge risky moves and then suck for years or watch old players play out their contracts that could easily be outplayed by younger players or even cheap free agents simply because of the sunk cost teams dont want to eat.

Someone made a good point that any GM no matter what the skill could sign a few of the big free agents and make the Mets better. Adding any of the top 4 guys (Bauer, Springer, JTR, DJL) will likely improve the team. I just want whatever they do to be forward thinking. I want them to take into account that Conforto/Noah/Stroman are free agents at the end of the year. That DeGrom has an opt out in a couple of years and make sure to have plans around all of that as well as not having several 35 year olds making 30 million a year at once. Even if they sign none of the big splashy names but set us up for future success and improvement I'm ok with it. Lots of new names may be available as FA on 12/2 and we need to evaluate their cost as well as the other mid-tier FA vs paying huge money to the big guys.

I really like how the Braves have made great one year deals and where they have also locked up the young star players very early instead of waiting until the last year or free agency. They have Acuna locked up until is age 31 season for a VERY reasonable price for a potential top 5 MVP type player. They locked up Albies for practically nothing for about 8 years! This is a guy who had a 4.5 & 5.2 WAR at ages 21 & 22! The Mets need to be very smart or the Braves will lord over them for another decade with their shrewd moves.

Remember1969 said...

With all the emphasis on pitching, and I don't disagree at all with your take on that, I also want to add 'defense matters' and 'good fundamentals matter'.

They need to shore up the defense, obviously at catcher, but centerfield, left field, third base, first base, and second base. Right field is average, and shortstop with Gimenez is just fine. Just getting a real centerfielder would help. Robinson Cano spending the summer on the beach will also help.

Also, they really need to better optimize the baserunners they have by not getting picked off as much, by going first to third on singles, by moving runners over by hitting behind them, but getting the bat on the ball with runners in scoring position.

Remember1969 said...

With regards to Dallas comment above, I agree with everything written. I am wondering, however, how to map the Atlanta strategy to the 2021 Mets.

I also like the idea of the one year contracts that have worked well for them, but you could also say they got pretty lucky there as well. Donaldson was coming off a year where he was hurt with only a couple hundred plate appearances. Going into his age 33 year, it was hard to see the monster season he had. Also Ozuna had a couple relatively poor years in St. Louis .. which hitter was he? the 2017 Miami guy or the .777 OPS guy from the Cardinals? Perhaps the Braves knew enough to put each of them in the best position to succeed, who knows?

Now with that all said, are there any free agents out there that could help the Mets with that type of a contract?

Also, while the Mets have a good core of young players, who among them is an Ozuna or Albies at this point? Alonso? Smith? Perhaps one more really solid year from Gimenez? I certainly like that approach to keep in mind as some of the top prospects make their way up the ladder and have some success at the MLB, but it is hard to see the parallels at this point.

Dallas said...

1969, youre right, its hard to employ some of those Braves moves at the moment. That being said in a pandemic year there might be more guys than we think that you could over pay for one year to try again next year due to lack of suitors willing to shell out the big $$. In a way thats basically what Stroman did.

As for locking up young players I would definitely look at Dom. McNeil might be too old to consider locking up into his 30's. If a guy like Alvarez is for real or maybe even Allan and shows they might be a star caliber player as they get further in the minors they might be good candidates.

I guess what I'm saying is that we have some catching up to match up with the Braves because of their shrewd moves. They were in a different class than us last year. This covid offseason might be a way for us to make up ground by getting a lot of value at a discount but just throwing too much money at several of the big fish might not work out long term. I like Springer because he upgrades like 3 positions by moving McNeil to 2nd, Nimmo to LF and him in CF and he has a bat. He also can shift to a corner spot of we dont resign Conforto or Nimmo and one of the top prospect CF we have is ready in 2-3 years. McCann seems like a much more affordable less risky (because less money and years) catcher and keeps the spot warm for Alvarez if he is the real deal. Bauer has talked about only short term deals before, would he be open to it this year?
I'm really interested to see who is non-tendered because it will be hard to know what kind of inventory there will be and it may even further suppress the costs of the high end talent.

Tom Brennan said...

Great comments, gentlemen. Yes, we need to see which players are shed due to money concerns. I think, going back to my article, that Springer would improve them by 30 runs, Bauer by 50 runs. That's a big start. McCann or Realmuto, we'll see - I read one thing saying his hip is better and another saying it is mending. If we get him, he better be 100% next year. If we get him, the Phillies are damaged.

It all comes down to how much Cohen believes he can go over the cap.

Someone suggested an Arenado for Alonso trade. Would anyone consider that if the Rockies ate 1/3 of his remaining contract? You want infield defense, voila. I did read an article thinking that Arenado's huge drop in road splits might cure itself to a good degree by not having to adjust from Coors advantage to the road. That seemed to happen with LeMahieu.

Reese Kaplan said...

Bryant wouldn't come with quite that contract length and AAV.

Tom Brennan said...

Bryant? Who would you trade? Alonso to me would be too much, considering Bryant is a free agent in 2022. Also, Bryant's 2020 was worse than Pete's.

I wonder if they could teach old Pete Alonso to play 3B, given he played there some in college.

Might be a question, though, if he'd reach 50 homers or 50 errors first. Springsteen may have been Born to Run, but Pete was born to DH.

Dallas said...

Dont know about 1969 but the only guys I want to trade are Rosario and JD if it makes the team better. JD & Rosario struggle defensively quite a bit and Gimenez just looks like a better player. Rosario just doesnt have the plate discipline and even if he got better he has never been good at defense or running. I wouldnt expect a big return on those guys and they are pretty decent bench depth if you didn't. Lindor, Arenado, Bryant...all can be free agents next year...evaluate them then.

Remember1969 said...

Great Stuff! Dallas, you are spot on . . Smith and Alonso were the two current ones I was thinking about. McNeil is already locked up through his 33 yr. He is kind of stuck there through his arbitration years. And yup, Allan and Alvarez were the two up and comers to climb. I am also very hopeful about Crow-Armstrong and Greene.

It was interesting, I was just out for my daily 2 mile walk before I read these comments and was thinking about the Covid effects on the market. You are right, those top guys got really cheated this year and may very well opt for one year deals in the hopes that next year will be kinder. Especially Bauer and Springer.

I am totally on board with Springer, McCann, and Bauer on a short deal. I stated early on that centerfield was the highest priority because of that point - upgrade 3 positions for one get.

As far as trades go, my chips are Rosario, Davis, and Matz.

In my initial 'GM for a day' that I wrote up last month, I suggested Davis and Matz for Bryant. That is about max and may even be a bit of an overpay for one year. To me, that is kind of the equivalent of Atlanta's one year deals.

Gsellman is another guy that is decent filler for a prospect. Heck, I'll trade Familia, but I doubt there is much market for him. I'm not interested in trading Pete, Dom, Gimenez, or Nimmo at this point. I'd like to hold on to McNeil as well, but as we discussed earlier, if anyone goes for a true superstar, I think his value would be more in demand than either Nimmo or Smith, the three lefties.

Lastly, I am a 'just no' on any Arenado chatter. Too much $$ tied up there.

Tom Brennan said...

Love talking about so many options. Under the Wilpons, we had to settle.

Dallas said...

And just like that the Braves snag one of the top FA pitchers on a one year deal for only $15 million. Its going to be tough to catch the Braves. They keep making the right moves. Mets need to out maneuver them with a transitioning front office...Sandy has his work cut out for him.