March 11, 2021
The team is looking pretty good through the first ten
days of spring training. This looks to
be the year where we will give the Braves a strong run. At worst, I expect the Mets to be a wild card
team. It’s realistic to project the team
as winning over 90 games. I predict a record
of 93-69.
From all appearances, the Mets have a solid rotation bolstered
by perhaps the best bullpen in memory.
Here’s how I think we get to 93 wins.
Having Jacob deGrom as the ace means we have a top three
pitcher heading the rotation. It’s
realistic to expect Jake to win anywhere from 18-21 games. My concern is that Jake will continue to get
matched up with the best pitcher on whatever team the Mets play. There will be a myriad of low-scoring games
that will eventually be won by the better bullpen. Hopefully, the Mets improved offensive lineup
shows up when Jake is on the mound. My
prediction is 19 wins against 7 losses.
Marcus Stroman seems to be the number two arm. To be honest, it’s really hard to forecast
his 2021 numbers. I expect him to show
up and routinely provide six and on occasion seven quality innings on most outings. Due to the fact he sat out 2020, my
assumption is that Stroman will be subject to an innings limit and will
probably miss a couple of starts. My
prediction is 15 wins vs 8 losses.
Carlos Carrasco slots in as the number three starter. Another pitcher whose medical history would
suggest he also would be subject to an innings limit similar to Stroman. My conservative guess would be 14-10,
although I would not be surprised to see him win as many as 16 games.
David Peterson is my choice as the number four
starter. He had a solid rookie campaign and
I think he will continue to have success this year. My prediction is for 11 wins versus 8
losses.
Taijuan Walker has been a 500 pitcher during his career
and as the number five starter I expect he will continue that trend. Once Syndergaard returns from the DL around
the first of June, Walker may be the one who loses his spot in the
rotation. In any event, my prediction is
a 7-9 season for him.
The big question is what to expect from Noah Syndergaard. It’s not out of the question to expect 18-20
starts from Thor. He will be monitored
closely with the number of innings pitched limited. My prediction is a 9-6 season.
Under my scenario, the six starters will rack up 75 wins
against 48 losses. Aside from deGrom, I’m
concerned that the other five will all spend some time on the DL.
That would leave the bullpen at 18 and 21.
My guess is that the team ERA for the year will be around
3.5%. My one concern is whether Diaz
will turn out to be the 2020 stud or the 2019 dud. Otherwise, I like the way the bullpen is
coming together.
Ray
3 comments:
Ray, I don't think those projections are much different than I would make.
Stroman's new split change looks like a great weapon and I think he is very confident he will have a career-best year. At this point, so am I.
It is possible Lucchesi will bump Peterson back to AAA, but I hope not.
Yes, I think Thor will come back huge. It seemed in 2019, he was off a bit - maybe the elbow was barking but he told no one. Maybe he comes back and dominates. it is the most important season of his career - don't be surprised if he comes roaring back.
I still have the Mets at 95 - but that drops if Carrasco's elbow becomes a real problem, rather than just early spring tenderness.
I like the overall optimism but would slot Walker in ahead of Peterson. Peterson was not a great minor league pitcher and Walker has been better in the majors.
I think we need a lefty in the rotation. Also, was solid as a rookie last year. Not sold on Walker yet.
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