Tom Brennan - DRAFT PICKS CAN CHANGE THE COURSE OF A FRANCHISE

Back in 2016, with the 64th overall pick in that draft’s second round, the Mets picked the Polar Bear, Pete Alonso, a huge-power, then-defensively challenged slugger.

A mere 2 picks later, at #66, a highly touted HS shortstop named Bo Bichette was snatched up by the Toronto Blue Jays.

Perhaps the Mets grabbed Alonso and not Bichette because they had possibly 3 viable shortstops in the system at the time, in Rosario, Gimenez, and Cecchini.  Who knows if that is why it was Pete,,,and not Bo...but that might well have been the reason.

Anyway, Pete has been anything but a bust - he has after all put up huge power numbers (quickest ever to 70 homers, in terms of plate appearances) in MLB history.

But he strikes out a lot.  A whole lot.  Like 251 time in 824 career at bats.  

When you watch him, you realize that many times, pitchers have the upper hand on Pete, as long as they can vary their pitches and move them around well.  Get him to chase bad pitches.  Dude, this Polar Bear is anxious.

Of concern, since the All Star break of his rookie season on 2019, he has hit just .229 in 505 at bats, with 156 Ks, and - yes - 40 HRs, but huge numbers of guys LOB.  

Kingman-like.  I don't know that LOB number, but any Mets fan who watches the games since the start of 2020 has seen too danged many LOBs from Pete and the rest of the team.

Drafting Pete, when they already had a legit first base prospect in Dominic Smith, also led to a 1B logjam.

They also wanted to make a splash this off season, signing Francisco Lindor at shortstop for 10 years, $341 million.   

He has sputtered a bit through the first 5 games, but likely will explode any day now and be a great Mets player for years.  

But 10 years is TEN YEARS, and anything can happen.  High risk, hopefully very high reward.

But they would not have acquired Lindor if they had Bichette.

Bichette just turned 23 and is a rising shortstop star. 

In 374 career at bats, he is .301/.340/.540.  .540??  That is NOT shabby.  He also hit .362 one season in the minors, so he clearly is a high average hitter.  He has a lot of speed and, as I see it, real similarities to a younger Lindor.

As many positives as Pete has brought to the franchise, he gets beat a lot and strikes out a ton.  Career, he is a .193 hitter with 2 outs and runners in scoring position (RISP).  Not good.  Rallies snuffed.

Michael Conforto, in case you haven't been watching, also gets beat a lot and strikes out a whole lot.  For his career, he is only a .238 hitter with RISP, and just .211 in "late and close" situations.  .211 leads to late losses, no doubt.

I think those two, combined, are a real reason this team leaves so many runners on base in frustrating losses.  

Both are good players, for sure. But one wonders if having both whiffers in the line up leaves the team susceptible to too many games like the ones we all too often see Jake not winning. 

After all, what is the jaw-dropping stat?  Jake’s ERA since the start of 2018 is 2.06, but the Mets are just 36-42 in his starts?  That's not right.  Kind of incomprehensible.

Something is wrong with the Mets’ offense, and I think a lot of it is that Pete and Conforto too often can be pitched to, and runners kept on the bases and not crossing the plate.

Think back to the likes of Daniel Murphy and how he was such a tough out in tough situations.  I always now have a feeling in the pit of my stomach when Pete and Mike come up in vital at bats, a queasy feeling that something good ISN'T about to happen.  Maybe it's just too much chili.

I, as an ultimate second guesser, am guessing the Mets would have done better long-term, in terms of Ws and Ls, had they drafted Bichette and not Pete. Have Smith at 1B, Bichette at SS, and spent big free agent money somewhere else, perhaps on Springer and Hand.

Hindsight, sure, but what if the Mets had drafted Bichette and not Pete? Time will tell.

But that Jake deGrom horror stat is not just an anomaly. Something is truly dysfunctional with the Mets offense (and frankly, often with the pen). And Pete more and more is part of that offensive dysfunction.

Steve Matz (2-0) meanwhile is throwing well with the Jays...part of that may be that he feels the Jays WILL score for him and he doesn't have to be perfect.  And so he relaxes.  

Does Jake ever get to relax?  Doubt it.  How can he?

A big reason?  The (non) offense.

But, heck, take Pete and Conforto out of NY, maybe they'd both hit much better, too.  It could be as simple as "success breeds success" and "failure breeds failure."  And the Mets have been # 2 in this town for a long, long time.

Yes, picks can alter the trajectory of a franchise.

P.S. If anyone told me that, between Spring Training and the regular season, Smith, Conforto and McNeil would be hitting a combined .186 in 184 at bats, I would have said you were nuts - but that's where we find ourselves.  Like a rubberband, may the talented trio snap back - hard.  How about .386 in the next 184 at bats?