A picture of the pre-baseline Brandon Nimmo with our very own Mack Ade
A lot of folks have different feelings about Brandon Nimmo.
Some like him, some don't.
Perhaps this look under the hood will help.
Sometimes, a rookie's performance is not a true picture of a player's future. One that vividly comes to mind is Mike Schmidt.
The Hall of Famer and former Phillies star hit just .196 his first full year. His true HOF baseline performance showed up after that year.
Likewise with Nimmo - he did OK briefly as a 2016 rookie, followed by an injury-delayed 2017. So let's start in late August 2017 with what was the start, as I see it, of his true career baseline, when he finally clicked.
He hit a HR that late August day, and 4 more that September. He finally was coming into his own, like Mike Schmidt once did.
In 2018, Brandon had a very fine season with over 500 plate appearances - part of the Nimmo baseline.
In 2019, he started the season well, but in mid April hurt his neck, suffering a painful, restrictive bulging disk. He should have gone straight to the DL, but tried to play with it for a few weeks, playing horribly, was out for months with it, then returned late in the year healthy and played very well.
For purposes of his baseline, let's exclude the period after mid April until he went on the DL from his baseline. Damaged goods period.
His first few weeks of 2019 and late season play in 2019, though, when he was healthy, are included by me in his baseline.
In 2020 and 2021, all good - no injuries, so all game results are included in his baseline.
So, including in his baseline late 2017, all of 2018, 2019 (excluding his injured period), and all of 2020 and 2021 (through the Thursday, April 8 game), you get this as what I see as his true-over-time baseline:
233 hits in 868 at bats (.268), 52 doubles, 13 triples, 38 HRs (that's a lot of extra base hits), 163 walks and 35 HBP, resulting in an OBP of well over .400.
That's about 2 full years worth of 540 plate appearance performance, so splitting it in two, over 540 plate appearances, he averages about 26 doubles, 7 triples, 19 HRs. a nearly .270 average, and 100 combined walks and HBP, and an OBP well over .400 (I did not try to calculate the latter exactly, but trust me, it wasn't .401).
That's one heck of a baseline.
I have a sneaking suspicion, also, that he is reaching his career peak as a player and is about to play somewhat above that fine baseline, perhaps for the next 3-5 peak years. He has a super-sharp eye at the plate - if it is two inches off, he reads it and almost never swings at it.
THAT'S HIS BASELINE? I SAY "WOW."
Just stay healthy, brother, and continue to show us what you've got. I'll take that baseline any day.
13 comments:
I for one did not think he was worthy of a draft pick that early.
That being said, he has developed into a nuce piece of the puzzle.
Despite his defensive challenges in CF, as I recall he was ranked 5th in MLB CFs. He does not get the respect he deserves.
Very small sample, but in 2020 "Late and Close" situations in 2021, he was on base 14 times in 23 plate appearances - remarkable, especially when you compare it to Conforto and Pete fanning with guys on base.
RISP last year? .388 on base %. He gets on - big bats have to deliver.
Also, he walks a whole lot, but in the baseline at bats in my article, a remarkable 102 extra base hits in 868 official at bats.
I'll take 3 or 4 of those on my team.
A nice guy to have on the club. Can he part of a championship team? Yes. Can he be a core player for years to come? Still not sure.
I saw him misplay balls in Brooklyn - he has continued to do so in the Majors. Overall like the player, just don't like him in CF. Having him play deep helps prevent defensive gaps on deep flys but this will result in balls falling in front of him.
I still think we missed the boat big time with the loss of Springer.
Come on Mack, Springer only played CF half the time and wasn’t too much better than Nimmo.
I predicted before the season started that Nimmo would eventually be our#3 hitter and McNeil will lead off. Nimmo doesn’t just walk, he hits too. Can you imagine Nimmo with a .422 BABIP? Oh my God! His numbers would be eye popping!
Gus
👌
Nimmo isn't Acuna, he isn't Soto, but I will take him over 90% of the outfielders in the majors.
I will take him before Conforto, frankly.
I think the role of tablesetter is undervalued in today's game. Our focus tends to go to the big bats and huge power. And since Nimmo is not a stolen base threat, it does limit his value somewhat.
I am a huge fan.
Again, look at a list of the top OBP guys in baseball. It's all superstars and Nimmo.
Plus, unlike so many players, he never gives away an AB.
Gus, I would never, ever put in in the 3-slot. He is a leadoff man, period, done. It plays perfectly to his strengths and his ego.
The Mets issue right now is getting Lindor some protection. Dom should help.
Has Conforto lost $20 million across 5 baseball games? I mean, no, that's ridiculous. But I have not heard nearly as many "pay the man" comments, guys quoting the 8/$200 demands.
One of baseball's golden rules: Nobody is ever as bad as they look when they are slumping.
Jimmy
Jimmy, very good points. Nimmo is an on base machine. A very tough out.
One interesting thing, to Mack's earlier point, is that Nimmo has overcome early doubts and become a very pleasant surprise.
One guy drafted in the next(?) draft almost in the exact same slot was Gavin Cecchini - he had a slow brief bad start in Vegas one season, 2016, then hit .350 the rest of the season. I thought he, like Nimmo, was on his way. But he wasn't. How he could have hit so well that year and just crapped out is a real puzzler to me, not that I ever expected him to be more than average at best.
He is listed as a Reno Ace (Diamondbacks) but did not get an AB in spring training.
Phil Evans, meanwhile, is doing great with his opportunity this year.
While I'm here:
* I've argued hard for Nimmo as underrated in the face of the huge adoration directed at Conforto. When I've looked at them side by side, I do come down with giving Conforto as slight edge -- with greater upside. My only complaints about Conforto at this point are his difficulties with LHP and his steakiness. I had hoped that he'd be a better hitter, and certainly imagined that when he first came up. If I've sounded anti-Conforto, ever, it's only in relation to the outsized contract expectations. I don't think he's THAT player. And to make that point, I've argued that Conforto and Nimmo are very close in terms of overall production.
* Cecchini always looked like a terrible pick to me. When I finally got to watch him swing the bat -- was that 2019? -- I was surprised at how hard he swung, the violence of it, like he was selling out to get every last ounce of power. It simply looked like a really bad swing to me, particularly for a guy that size. Weird.
* Both Nimmo and Smith have turned out better than I expected.
Jimmy
Jimmy, this is a power game unless you have speed - Cecchini lacked both.
Just not a first rounder. I'd kill the Mets if they drafted a guy like him in the first 3 rounds this year.
I agree on Nimmo - better than expected. Smith was supposed to be the best pure hitter in the draft - so when the 185 pounder at the time of the draft showed up in Queens at 260 I was really disappointed -especially on top of the Cecchini blown first round pick. Fortunately, he realized fixing his sleep apnea and a better diet and workout routine fixed him. He, to me, is as I first expected.
But you love Guillorme.
There are no hard and fast rules in this game, and TEAMS are best when they are balanced with a variety of types and styles.
But to be honest, I dismissed Guillorme all through the minors because: no speed, no power. The ceiling was obviously low.
But he does so many things well, and consistently, that I've come to like him quite a bit.
Jimmy
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