Reese Kaplan -- The Long Term Impact of the Returning Twin

As Mets fans anticipate the start of the 2023 season with unabashed enthusiasm and swagger about the team taking the field, remember that it was just a few weeks ago that part of the winning formula was to have included Carlos Correa to play alongside Francisco Lindor, leaving Brett Baty, Mark Vientos and Eduardo Escobar wondering what in the world they would have to do to earn a spot in the lineup.

No matter how you slice it, there were losers all around in the Correa situation. First were the San Francisco Giants who refused to risk mega riches on a truly magnificent ballplayer due to legitimate concerns over his health. When the Mets swooped in during the dark of night to seemingly snag Correa away, it was for less money and a shorter term. 

Then as the negotiations and health issues battled against one another, this time it was the team that lost him to free agency, the Minnesota Twins, who coughed up a highly uncharacteristic sum to secure his services. Since he cost quite a bit more than was originally budgeted an offered, that would make the Twins something of a loser here as well as the team is putting all of their eggs into a potentially IL-headed basket towards the latter part of the deal.

However, the other loser in this situation is Carlos Correa himself. Don't get me wrong. He's surely not going to be destined to a future of Cup O Noodles as his gourmet repast because it's all he can afford. At an average annual salary of over $33 million for the next six years he can probably supersize his order. However, the Twins had extended a $285 million contract to Correa which he declined. 

Then the Giants were in at $350 million and the Mets proffered $315 million. That alleged concern about how his leg would heal in the long term (as well as some rumored antivax sentiment regarding COVID) may have cost Correa both in terms of average annual compensation as well as the duration of those payments.

Say what you will about the way things turned out, but the fact is that the Giants and the Mets helped illustrate something that heretofore has not been a major aspect of baseball player paychecks -- concern for injury in the long term. That aspect of contractual risk is a critical one as the upcoming free agent season contains some mega prizes like Manny Machado, Aaron Nola, Julio Urias and a fellow by the name Shohei Ohtani who could make the All Star team with his bat and for standing on the pitching mound.

Expect that the previously unimagined and unseen level of salary for Ohtani will also warrant just as deep a concern for what happens if an arm injury threatens his game as a pitcher. Chances are that even if it was so severe that it required surgery he could continue his career as a DH without having to throw the ball at all, but it would still mean paying for up to two years of full salary (or the corresponding insurance premiums) for a guy unable to play the field.

Already people are spouting opinions about what it would take to land Ohtani and whether or not it would make sense to do so. Say, for the sake of argument, he's regarded as the game's first $60 million per year player being a $30 million pitcher and $30 million hitter. Considering what some others are earning for just one of those roles, that $60 million is not exactly an unfair compensation demand.

Others feel that it would be a shrewder investment to try to land a pairing of a top hitter like Machado and a top pitcher like Nola or Urias would spread the risk a bit. It won't eliminate it, but if the hitter or the pitcher was down long term with an illness or injury, the other one would still be capable of contributing, unlike losing Ohtani and missing out on both aspects of his game simultaneously.

Still, Steve Cohen has already shown he's not against securing the best of the best when he's determined to do so. Ohtani would help cement his promise of a World Series Championship for the New York Mets within his five year timeline for doing so. Adding another Japanese player to join Kodai Senga would help make both players feel a bit more comfortable knowing they can communicate with ease with a fellow athlete. The headlines alone would elevate the Mets and Steve Cohen to near legendary status. Expect it to happen.

However, if it doesn't, please understand that the Angels did a whole lot of nothing while enjoying the biggest slugger in the league and the best two-way player in the league. 

 It is possible to win games in other ways, too. The Mets should be just as actively working on Plans B, C and D in the event Plan A takes himself across town to join the Dodgers or heading south to say hola to the Padres.