Reese Kaplan -- How David Stearns Addresses Roster Improvements

Trying to analyze the David Stearns thinking process is a bit of a challenge.  While he obviously is highly respected for the job he did in Milwaukee, thus far it's too soon to draw any definitive evaluations of what he will do to improve things in New York.

With the GM meetings now over it's time for the offseason to begin in earnest.  We all know that the non-tender deadline is rapidly approaching on Friday, so that hurdle is the next with major ramifications on shaping the 40-man roster and its vacancies.  Already the Mets have 8 openings that need to be addressed with more perhaps coming before the weekend begins.

So what are the Mets needs?

Well, pitching has to be number one.  With only two established starting pitchers and three established relief pitchers (adding Drew Smith into that number), the club is going to be pretty desperate and anxious to bring in quite a few new faces.  The question is whether it's done through trading or free agent acquisition.  When you need at minimum three starters and 3-4 relievers, that's a lot of movement that needs to take place.

Then there is the question of 3rd base.  Allegedly the Mets are out of the interest in Matt Chapman whose glove and moderate power are both desirable, but his price tag and low batting average are not.  Right now it appears the club is going into 2024 with failed rookie Brett Baty and fellow unspectacular rookie Ronny Mauricio being the primary contenders to take over the old David Wright spot.  

Trailing behind them are Jeff McNeil who could play there with Mauricio moving to 2B where he's had more experience than at third.  Way back behind that trio is Mark Vientos who appears to be on the interal sh*t list for his lackluster numbers this past season and highly questionable defense.

The outfield is also currently a mess given that Brandon Nimmo is the only sure thing going into next season.  Starling Marte's recovery is still a great unknown.  No one is clear what role, if any, DJ Stewart will play and whether or not McNeil transitions full time to the outfield.  It would seem there is ample opportunity for new resources to become a part of the Mets organization for left field and as a hedge against a slow recovery by Marte.

DH has been a raging embarrassment to the Mets ever since the National League adopted the AL's practice.  Folks want to see a real hitter, preferably with power, who can put his suspect defense aside and simply concentrate on being a run producer.  Daniel Vogelbach has had ample opportunity to demonstrate he's the answer.  He has not done so.  The aforementioned Mark Vientos is a possibility but he might instead net more as trade bait to bring in other resources.  

Traditionally a DH is an older player who is no longer regarded as suitable to play defense and is content in the bat-only role.  Think JD Martinez as a great example.  The issue here is cost vs. how long this person would serve in the role.  Trades and free agent acquisitions look to be at play here as well.

Finally, there are some backup players who may be needed.  Luis Guillorme is in danger of losing his spot in the Mets organization and the Mets would probably prefer to have a glove-first backup catcher over Omar Narvaez given what Francisco Alvarez did at his young age to demonstrate he is indeed the long term answer.  

The club was adamant as recently as a few weeks ago that they would not be trading away their minor league pieces to patch together a more potent major league lineup.  That attitude in press conferences has changed in which Stearns now said minor leaguers could indeed be moved under the right circumstances and when there would be a competitive advantage in doing so.  In other words, we're not scrapping what has become a better farm system but everything is on the table given the great number of needs the club is facing.

Trades have recently become a secondary route for roster improvement and it doesn't appear that it's going to push to the top of the work methodology.  No one that immediately springs to mind on the major league roster as trade bait is going to net much, so that would indeed mean either minor moves (trading a player like Guillorme) or dipping into the minor leagues.

Consequently, the adjustment David Stearns may have to make with Steve Cohen's deep pockets is free agent acquisition.  You give up no personnel by signing new players to contracts.  Imagine, for a moment, you wanted to go after Juan Soto.  It would take a large price in terms of players to make this kind of deal happen and it only nets you one year of service before he would hit free agency.  

If instead you signed someone like Jorge Soler or Lourdes Gurriel Jr., or even Rhys Hoskins the number you pay would be significantly lower than Soto's salary and you would retain all of your chips for the right deal when it arises.

While I expect the Mets with their budget to be rumored on every primary free agent from Yoshinobu Yamamoto to Shoehei Ohtani to Blake Snell, the real job David Stearns needs to do is to evaluate the second level of players not at the very top despite having the budget to grab them.  A Jordan Montgomery or Shota Imanaga might not generate the same front page headlines some other pitchers would garner, but remember the Mets need not just one but three starting pitchers.  

Similarly while Josh Hader is certainly available, the Mets already have their version in Edwin Diaz.  Instead expect Stearns to inquire about known setup guys (including possible reunions with Adam Ottavino and David Robertson) who would more directly fulfill their bullpen needs.  

If you had to fulfill 3 starters, 3 relievers and 2 outfielders at minimum, then you're looking at spending for potentially eight free agent acquisitions.  If they were worth between $3 million and $23 million per season, then you're looking at an total expenditure of under $100 million for the 2024 payroll.  That's actually not bad if you consider it would average out to $12.5 million per player.  While that's not pocket change, remember you also are going to have to fork over a boatload of cash to retain Pete Alonso.  

Right now no one knows exactly what the team's game plan is for this offseason, it's pretty soon going to become clearer as transactions begin to occur.  The 2024 season was not supposed to be a repeat of the failed 2023 approach but with judicious planning and execution underrated players complementing the Mets core could go a long way to returning the club to finish about .500.