Let’s hope we smile, too, at their 2024 success.
Two .210 hitters in 2023.
(No, this article is about Baty, and not about Alvarez).
In the past dozen years, the Mets drafted 2 first rounders who have done this on the major league level:
PLAYER 1:
431 plate appearances, .210/.272/.325
PLAYER 2:
89 plate appearances, .217/.270/.301.
Both players were bad, and remarkably similarly so, slash-wise:
Player #2?
Gavin Cecchini.
Player #1?
Brett Baty.
Cecchini (career) in the minors:
.279/.339/.390, with a K every 12 plate appearances.
Those numbers were reduced by 2 weak seasons at the tail end of his failed career in the minors.
Before those two seasons, closer to .285/.350/.410.
Baty (pictured above with undrafted international signing and 25 HR Francisco Alvarez) did this in the minors:
.290/.390/.507, with a K every 3.9 plate appearances.
More power, on base more, but tons more Ks for Baty than Cecchini.
In the majors, 117 Ks in 431 PAs for Baty, or one K every 3.7 at bats.
Not horrendous, for an arriving hitter, but not satisfactory.
Let’s hope the soon-to-be 24 year old Brett Baty in 2024 puts some more distance between him and Mr. Cecchini, whom Mets fans would largely agree was a busted first round pick who barely made the major leagues.
The distance between the two, so far, is uncomfortably slim.
Baty had some hot streaks in the minors, you might retort.
Well, Cecchini had back-to-back seasons in AA and AAA where (combined) he hit .320/.385/.445, and he afterwards failed at the big league level.
So, Brett still needs to prove it at the major league level.
So far, he has proven only to be a sub-par major league hitter and fielder. He needs simply to prove otherwise.
Fielding-wise, his RTOT/yr in 2023 was -23, which is pretty bad.
And his WAR was -0.8.
Fellow rookie Corbin Carroll by comparison had a WAR of +5.4.
6.2 difference.
‘Nuf said.
2024 is the year for Baty to ascend to MLB success…or follow Cecchini to failure.
We all, of course, here in Metsville hope for Baty’s success.
May he turn into a Bryce Harper.
THERE’S HOPE!
The hopefully good news is that “ZiPS sees good things (in 2024) for Baty, who struggled badly in 2023.
He's projected to be a tick above average as an offensive performer, with a .247/.321/.411 slash line to go along with 19 homers.” (Per an SNYTV article).
It does list Baty as having “70” raw power, which means there’s hope.
The article also noted that ZIPS projections for Vientos and Alvarez were equally decent for 2924, and Mauricio’s projection only slightly less so.
If so, the Mets front office would have to be reasonably happy for those 4.
Final Notes:
Another failed first round hitter arose in that period.
Dom Smith.
Aside from his sensational 2020 COVID-shortened super-mini-season, his career WAR for all other seasons? -1.0.
Excuse me…who did this extraordinary drafting?
Whoever did the draft selection gets a -10 WAR.
Next time, go in with a blindfold and dartboard for better results.
Aaron Judge was snatched by the Yankees about two dozen picks after the Mets dumbly picked dastardly Dom.
Judge’s career WAR?
Thank you for asking, it is a huge +41.5.
Should the Mets have taken Judge rather than Dom?
Tough one there. Head scratcher. You’ll have to be the judge of that.
SPEED:
In the Mets Top 30 Prospects, who is the fastest? The fleetest afoot?
Well, Alex Ramirez is rated a 55. Pretty quick.
Well, Luisangel Acuna is a 55. Pretty quick.
Well, Jett Williams is a 60. Nice. Quick!
Nick Morabito, though? He is a Medicare-eligible 65.
65? Whoosh!
Fastest dude in the Mets top 30.
He stole 21 of 25 in 57 games last year, a fine pace. He also hit .306.
(So, why is he only a Mets’ site #28 prospect?? SS Diego Mosquera is #24, a slick fielder with seemingly no power and just 4 steals in about 350 pro plate appearances - how he is ranked above Nick really puzzles me. I have Nick much higher than #28.)
My guess?
Quick Nick swipes 50+ bags in 2024, when he hopefully plays 120+ games.
And I see him ending the 2024 season racing into the Mets Top 10.
C’mon, Nick, steal 80 bags in 2024 and get everyone’s attention.
An interesting speed contrast?
2023 draftee and two-way player Nolan McLean, the Mets’ 23rd prospect.
Best prospect arm on the mound, with a 65 fastball. And huge power as a slugger (60).
But very high hitting Ks…and his running? Dude is SLOW.
How slow?
A 30 rating for speed. Real slow. Defined on one sports web page thusly:
“30: Poor, but not unplayable, such as Edwin Encarnacion speed.”
I asked Muhammad Ali about McLean. Ali said, “I float like a butterfly, sting like a bee, and if he pitches like Ohtani and hits like Edwin E, you’ll hear no complaints from me.”
No doubt in my mind McLean could whip Vogelbach in a foot race.
Ex-Met DV is rated a 20 in speed, which rating is the lowest on the scale.
If Mack can arrange it, I’ll challenge Vogelbach to a foot race. I’m rated a 70 in speed…running to the head at night, that is.
Otherwise, I’m just 70, something I’m very slowly adjusting to.
NOLA TO PHILLIES, LOPEZ TO BRAVES, WHILE METS SIGN A RETREAD:
Mets sign Cole Suiser to a minor league contract, for pitching depth.
He is 34. Less than half my age, so I’m fine with that.
23 comments:
In a weird way, it makes sense to straighten out the front office and coaching ranks before getting hot and bothered about the roster inaction. There are LOTS of players looking for jobs. Not all of them are good. The same applies to executives and coaches.
We have to hope the F.O. has a brilliant plan to reassemble this team, now that it has been disassembled.
Mets prospect site says this on #24 Mosquera: Mosquera has wowed Mets coaches, officials and evaluators with his early defense at short, and there’s a case that he could be the best defender in the system.
Sounds like another Rey Ordonez, potentially.
So while the 2012 draft was generally pretty strong with Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton at the top, selections from 1.8 through 1.16 are as follows:
Mark Appel
Andrew Heaney
David Dahl
Addison Russell
Gavin Cecchini
Courtney Hawkins
Nick Travieso
Tyler Naquin
Lucas Giolito
Only Heaney and Giolito are still in the majors, Dahl and Naquin were rather fringe players, Russell self destructed, Appel was a complete bust, and nobody ever heard of Hawkins or Travieso. Going even higher, Mets favorite Albert Almora was the sixth pick of the draft that year!. Even the Braves, yes the team on the pedestal for doing everything right, selected Lucas Sims with their first round pick that year. He made his MLB debut in 2017 and was traded away in 2018 after pitching in 20 games and compiling a 5.96 ERA for Atlanta.
Top half of the first round picks all.
The point is that it doesn't really do any good to keep bitching about poor drafting. It is very difficult to find the right players and drafting percentages for every team are less than an average major league hitters batting average.
There are so many things involved in the transformation of a high school or college baseball player to the highest professional level.
These people are human beings with different talents, flaws, makeup and thought process.
The player development techniques at each level are extremely important to guide these players. I don't know what you were doing at age 18 or 19, but guidance and training is required for most male brains at that age.
Also, New York is a very difficult place to play. Expecting a guy that has done very well at all levels in small cities along the way and then struggle for a little bit in New York and starting to hear the jeers and negative press has to play mind games. Carlos Mendoza described the New York fan base as 'passionate'. I use the words cruel and self-defeating. These guys are human beings. No human wants to or should have to put up with some of what the NY 'fans' and press dish out.
A couple of things
Slow down on the Baty bashing. It's far too early to throw him on the Cheech pile
You can't replace a defective organ until you take the old one out. Stearns is cleaning out both the lockers and the middle level suit suite. The correct first step.
Mack, I hope Baty emulates another 3B slow starter: Mike Schmidt.
Bill, good argument, but the Mets have developed precious little impact talent in their drafts, forever.
They hired the new guy from Houston in part because he has had more drafted guys make the majors over a period of time than any other team. Good.
My overarching guidance is to draft power arms, power bats, “power speedsters”. Very few mid-tool players drafted by the Mets ever amount to a hill of beans.
So…if you pass on drafting an available Victor Scott for 5 rounds when he has 80 speed (think Carl Lewis) and 70 fielding, and makes decent contact, there is no way that sort of error should happen.
I’d draft a Bryce Montes de Oca every single time. 4 Ocas May fail, and the 5th will be the next Craig Kimbrel.
Had the Mets not traded for prospects in July, Syracuse and Binghamton would have played .400 ball this year…awful. But not surprising when you fail to draft toolsy players as a rule.
I got an idea
Have the Mets keep signing 40mil+ old men and then trade them to there teams for their drafted prospects
The PHils two kid infielders had strong seasons after very shaky starts.
Seriously? I too agree that the Metd just can't seem to get this drafting process down and I also wish someone would do a 10 year analysis on which teams were the best to the worst on domestic drafting.
Mack, I will leave that draft success comparison to other orgs to another writer (Bill, perhaps?), but will be doing a year-by-year assessment of Mets draft successes and failures in a late December 10 article series.
I'm trying to get Steve to set up an interview for me with the new draft guy
I'd rather have a successful rookie like Corbin Carroll than hope rookies who struggled over much of the season to get over that and not hit a soph jinx.
Mack, that would be great.
Can someone explain this rating system, which is very different from any others I've seen?
65 out of 100 is barely passing in school, but 60 in baseball is very good. What #is "perfect" in that scale?
Question 2: Who compiles the "official" Mets prospect list? Is it someone in the Mets FO, or an outsider who observes the minor leaguers as they play their games?
Bill, Tom here. An 80 is the top rating and is extremely rare. Very few achieve a 70. Then, 65 is probably top 5%, and a 60 is probably top 10%. Range is 20 to 80.
Thanks. How did they come up with this? Why not just grade on a scale of 100, or even just use letter grades?
I see no reason for a 20-80 system.
Bill, Tom again. I see no rhyme or reason either. Seems like an elliptical curve, and maybe has something to do with deviations from the mean. Wild guess
Maybe don’t want to give a zero to anyone but not really fawn over anyone and give them 100? Probably some code scouts used to have forever that the rest of us now found out about?
On the prospects, just look over the first rounds of every year’s draft and I’m sure you’ll laugh quite a bit. And if Victor Scott lasted until the fifth round, why didn’t someone else take them? Can we please stop complaining just to complain about stuff like this?
Gus, I do not know any specifics on this Victor fella, but, FWIW, a BB America article, discussing 70 and 80 ratings, said this:
70: Plus-Plus. Among the best tools in the game, such as Corey Seager’s arm, Patrick Corbin’s slider or
Francisco Lindor’s defense.
80: Top of the scale. Some scouts consider only one player’s tool in all of the major leagues to be 80.
Think of Aaron Judge’s power, Byron Buxton’s speed or Aroldis Chapman’s fastball.
So…if I am GM, no way do I pass on a player with both an 80 and 70 unless there is a serious hole in the guy’s game. Victor stole 112 bases this year and hit .300. Seems that sort of output was predicable. I pick him in round 5, and maybe even a few rounds sooner.
My point exactly. He went in the fifth round. There has to be a reason. LOL, I’m sure he would have gone earlier if that was a possibility as every single team hadn’t passed on him at least four times. Piazza went in round 62!
Gus, Pizza is always in round 1 for me - especially if is Bacon Ranch Pizza.
Thanks. That makes me feel less stupid. 😄
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