DRAFT WHIFFS?
THEY HAPPEN ALL TOO FREQUENTLY IN METSVILLE.
We all know drafts in baseball can be crapshoots.
Research the pre-draftees all you want, and you may still swing-and-miss.
It, though, can be annoying.
You see, I want no excuses.
I want RESULTS! I want ANSWERS!
NOW TO MY TALE:
This is a tale of 2 players who are now 22.
One a minor league Metsie, one not.
Both were drafted in the 5th round of 2022.
Both played in Arizona this fall, too.
The Mets 5th round selection (#149 overall) played in Brooklyn this year, and missed some time. He is a career .235 hitter with limited power, 9 steals in 93 games and, other than his Arizona Fall Ball experience, he has only gotten up to High A. He has a high 20 errors at 2B in 73 regular season minors games to his credit, too.
His name, to be clear, is entirely irrelevant, as this is a look at the Mets' draft gurus, not at the player who got drafted with no say in the matter, so his name is not listed here.
The other 22 year old draftee, meanwhile, who will be named, was selected 8 picks later, the 157th overall pick in 2022. His selecting team was declared the Victor.
A CF in the Cardinals Redbirds system, the draftee, one Victor Scott, started this season in high A, and then played the second half of the season in AA, where he hit .323, followed by a successful AFL mini-season this fall. Good fielder, with just 3 CF errors in 160 games.
Steals this year, in 155 games? He stole 12. Not bad.
No wait, I'm sorry, thanks for handing me my reading glasses - I misread it.
The correct steals number is 112.
Yes, 112 steals - this year!
And 114 runs scored - this year!
And just 105 Ks in 717 PAs (just 8 Ks in 23 games in high-K Arizona)!
Imagine if the Mets had drafted Victor Scott instead of the unnamed guy the Mets actually selected in the 5th round?
We fans/writers would be incredibly excited, feeling like “Victors”, wondering how the Mets managed to shrewdly snatch such a gem in round 5. We’d be calling them geniuses. The dunce caps would remain hidden away. Us? We’d be…
Wondering when he’d be ready to arrive in Queens to “steal” our hearts.
To, yes, make us feel like draft Victors.
Somehow, the Mets missed this human blur in the fifth round while instead picking yet another middle infielder who has not impressed - at least so far.
So...
I invite the Mets' organization's own cadre of draft decision-making experts to weigh in here with a detailed response as to exactly and precisely why they failed to select this available Victor Scott fella in round 5 in 2022.
I have sweeping subpoena powers and will use them if necessary (LOL).
Joking aside, I humbly ask this intriguing question, not knowing the actual answer:
"HOW THE HECK DID THE METS NOT DRAFT VICTOR SCOTT?"
I await your reply, gentlemen.
Steve Cohen can jump in here if he’d like.
Steve, how do you feel that they didn’t pick the 112 steals guy?
Of course, this is merely a cordial request from an interested party, namely me, nothing more. Who I’d nothing more than a curious, yet frequently dissatisfied, Mets fan.
18 comments:
You know the cliche: To the Victor belongs the spoils.
Drafting is not an exact science
Maybe a science experiment
We need some more successful scientists, then.
Mack, to me, the choice in retrospect, in one respect, seemed simple: do we draft our 58th middle infielder, or instead draft a super speedy CF (who also hit 12 HRs this year, so he also has some pop)? I thought we needed more outfielders. We have enough middle infielders for 3 teams.
Tom
Teams usually add in specific position players to fill affiliate lower level holes after the 10th round
In my opinion The Mets have done a poor job in the first 10 rounds.
They need twice the scouts in the field from day one and team scouting meetins at least twice a week
Once to discuss highlights of past week
Another to set up follow week's assignments
True that the draft is an inexact science. You can evaluate skilled players many times, but sometimes it is tough to see the flaws because of the competition they face, or the momentum they have, or a hundred other reasons.
But I'll say this about Victor. His speed and bat-to-ball skills should have been considered more highly in the evaluations. Those skills translate, while attributes like power can be nullified if the barrel can't find the ball against more velocity and movement.
Mack, I agree. Aside from very rare big hits after the first several rounds like Murphy, Jake, Lugo, and McNeil, those later rounds have produced little…and really, after round 2 has been very weak. They need to select much better.
Paul, I agree. We have a few guys who could steal like Victor, except they fan like mad. We really have picked too many mediocre hitters with mediocre power and mediocre speed.
An area hugely in need of upgrade. You don’t develop enough REAL guys, you force yourself into signing $100 million guys who are only worth $50 million. That will kill you.
Well they have a Top Ten system, their problem is they have so much talent they don’t know who to protect. Sure draft better,every team wants to do that including the other 28 teams that didn’t draft that guy but they seem to be doing pretty good.
We have to stop being the New York Mediocre's
Lou, list all draftees since, say, 2013, and see how much they’ve impacted. My take? I sufficiently.
Gary, you are in charge of the 2024 draft. Make sure to bring your darts and dartboard.
Victor Scott is, by the way, the Redbirds’ 4th prospect, listed with EIGHTY speed and SEVENTY defense. Nope, I’ll pass. We got OUR guy.
By contrast only Mets’ McLean’s fastball is even ranked a 65. No one else above 60 in any category.
Yet, the Mets passed on Victor despite his 80 speed and 70 field.
Not only is the draft an inexact science, it is really a crapshoot, particularly when you get past the 2nd round. There are a lot of top picks that do not pan out for one reason or another and there are a lot of lower level picks that were ignored for 150 or 200 selections that for one reason or another things click and they become good or great players. I suspect the Mets drafting success is not that much different than almost every other team over the years.
The key is to draft the athletic guys as once you get past the first 100 or so picks they really don't know the mental make up of these prospects which is the make or break characteristic.
Yeah, I love the 80 speed, 70 fielding guys but for every Rickey Henderson there are about 10 Tim Locastros out there.
Bill, when you have a VERY rare 80/70 guy available in the usually fruitless 5th round, common sense says you draft him.
Which implies our 2022 “gurus” had not a lick of sense. I thought about it your way, but the logic just does not pass muster.
Keep in mind that our two prospect speedsters who stole a lot, Acuna and Jett, have 60 speed. Compared to Victor, in other words, they are standing still as Roadrunner passes by.
The draft room conversation should have gone like this “80 speed? Wow. 70 field? Wow. Does he make good contact? Real good. Power? Some. GRAB HIM!!!” Nothing else to know.
An 80 speed, 70 fielding, good contact, some power guy at draft time does not drop to the 5th round on anybody's radar. 30 teams do not ignore guys like that that long. I suspect his hit tool did not look good at draft time. There is something you are not seeing. All teams turn up diamonds in the late rounds occassionally. (Jake? Jeff?)
Bill, I gamble on the tool every time in the 5th round. The unnamed guy they drafted, so far, is a surplus IF who exhibits little speed, a weak glove, a mediocre bat. 95% of such guys do not make the majors. But...if you can get the 80 tool guy to hit - you have Vince Coleman, presumably without the baggage. This Mets team has done so poorly drafting because they select mediocre bats after the first few rounds almost without exception.
My favorite whipping boy in that regard has been Branden Kaupe, who some fool thought would make a solid 140th overall pick in 2014. What did he achieve? 600 plate appearances in rookie ball, 4 doubles, no HRs, bad fielding. I could have done that when I was 20. Who did the Mets pass over that year, to pick the "double every 150 times up" 5'6" guy? Rhys Hoskins.
No excuses for the bums who drafted Mets players over the years. None. Draft power arms, power bats, and hyper-speed only. Most will fail...but some will star. The Mets after the first few rounds, when it comes to hitters? At least until the last few seasons (which are still in wait-and-see mode) the Mets drafters have earned an F-. Perhaps a G+, which is below F-.
Rangers were smart. When they drafted Kumar Rocker, they went under slot with their overall 3rd pick of him, which shocked many. BUT…they used that $ in the 4th round to sign Brock Porter, who apparently was considered the top arm in the 2022 draft, and he had a terrific 2023 in A ball. If they also get Kumar back healthy…but even if not, Porter made it a shrewd move.
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