ANGRY MIKE
Trading Nolan McLean or Jonah Tong for ANYBODY would be a monumental mistake by the Mets, but let’s take a look at Tong first since it’s become the trendiest mock trade by Mets content creators:
FINANCIAL INVESTMENT STANDPOINT:
Tong drafted 7th Rd (#109) -> $226,000 signing bonus
Tong’s $226K investment is the CLOSEST EXAMPLE you’ll find to the MLB’s version of investing in BTC in 2010…
-> F. Montas, below-mediocre SP, costs $17M AAV
-> L. Castillo durable SP, mid-3’s ERA, costs $24M AAV
-> T. Glasnow, plus stuff SP, injury-prone, costs $32.5M AAV
-> T. Skubal, durable, CY Young caliber SP, costs $40+M AAV
6 years of control -> $226K represents $170M+ value if you use a straight-line appreciation method to project replacement cost -> averaging 4 AAV above:
If you subtract 3 yrs. Pre-Arb. salaries ($800K) + 3 yrs of Arb. salaries - using D. Peterson as a blueprint = $20M total
That’s $150M+ in potential savings -> $28.5M avg AAV
Even if Tong pitches at Montas Level all 6 years -> he’d still be saving the Mets $90M+ at the very least.
($102M = 6 yrs @ $17M AAV) - ($12M total salary - 6 yrs)
Best case scenario -> production improves every 2 years:
-> Avg. AAV of (Montas + Castillo) -> $20.8M AAV x 2 Yrs
-> Avg. AAV of (Montas to Glasnow) -> $24.7M AAV x 2 Yrs
-> Avg. AAV of (Castillo to Skubal) -> $32.1M AAV x 2 Yrs
$155.6M total in “Replacement Value” salary for 6 yrs -> means Mets have to spend that much for other SP $20M projected actual cost” -> $135M in savings
That doesn’t even take into account salary inflation rates for SP, which are arguably among the highest for any position in professional sports.
Average to below average SP are earning closer to $1M per GS b/c they’re logging closer to 20-23 GS each year, & average to above average SP earning $1M+ per GS for 25-28 GS per year.
Salaries continue to rise at an exponential rate despite the frequency of pitchers needing Tommy John Surgery reaching epidemic levels.
PRESENT TALENT / FUTURE PROJECTION STANDPOINT:
Of course trading a Top prospect for Skubal / Skenes makes sense, & no one is stupid enough to say Tong is at their level.
Yet…
Tong is a unique talent who warrants special consideration for a number of different reasons:
-> Dominant #’s in 2024 with average FB Velo
-> Historic #’s in 2025 when FB Velo jumped to “plus”
-> Only SP ever to lead Minors in ERA & Strikeouts
-> Hits allowed, K/9, K-rate, BAA also among MILB leaders
-> AA Eastern League = top competition in the Minors
Tong dominated AA-AAA despite being multiple years below the league average, & reached AA in 1st full season in 2024.
Reaching AA despite being drafted out of high school & only logging 1 full season of 100+ IP is incredibly rare.
It’s one thing to trade a prospect who might have a more predictable ceiling, b/c you can better gauge their future value.
Tong dominated higher levels of minors & exhibited an improving arsenal with tremendous future potential.
-> 2025 FB Avg Velo was 95+ MPH -> 98-99 top end Velo
-> Vulcan changeup flashed potential to be a plus-plus pitch
-> Slider has potential but can be scrapped for a plus sweeper
-> Curveball has potential to be plus or better
-> Has the ability to quickly learn & deploy new pitches
-> I.V.B. has 21+ inches AVG - that’s tops in MILB & MLB
Nolan McLean represents a potentially greater R.O.I. than Tong, because he has already flashed “ACE” potential during his brief MLB stint, despite being a 3rd round draft pick who signed for a $747,600 signing bonus. Based on the same comparable salaries of listed above, it’s safer to say McLean represents the type of veteran caliber pitcher who could easily command $25M - $35M on the open market.
6 years of control X $30M AAV = $180M -> this represents the “replacement cost” if the Mets were to trade McLean for a pitcher like Skubal.
If the Mets extend Skubal, you can add another potential $220M+ based on Skubal’s projected AAV and the minimum 8 years he’ll most likely get. Combine this with the fact these ignorant hacks are proposing the Mets would need to trade McLean & Tong to acquire Skubal, that represents around $600 million in new contracts for extending Skubal and finding an additional impact front-line SP to replace Tong. That doesn’t even take into account the potential replacement cost of the other prospects being proposed in mock trades for Skubal, such as Jett Williams and Carson Benge. Trading 4 premier talents for Skubal, represents close to a BILLION DOLLARS in additional financial expenditures by Cohen, by not spending on premier veterans to replace the high-upside talent we traded for Skubal means Cohen would waste spending $1.7 Billion on Juan Soto, Skubal, Francisco Lindor, and Brandon Nimmo.
That’s why it makes ZERO SENSE from a financial standpoint and a roster management standpoint to trade any of the players being proposed in mock trades for Skubal or even Paul Skenes. Acquiring one pitcher for the cost of 4-5 premier prospects creates more holes on the Mets roster, which already has a considerable number of question marks as is.
That’s why the best course of action for Cohen and the Mets is to continue developing the young talent they have amassed over the last few years and continue lowering their payroll, in order to gear up for a potential pursuit of Skubal when he inevitably hits free agency after the 2026 season.
The so-called experts can make all the mock trades they want, but our best young talent, Nolan McLean, Jonah Tong and others will not be traded by the Mets for a rental player like Skubal or even a player with multiple years of control like Skenes, and that’s a fact…
24 comments:
Good stuff Mike. Couldn't agree with you more. The cost of Skubal would be ridiculous in terms of prospects. Detroit will not accept a substandard trade even though he's a rental.
I can't imagine the cost of prospects only to raped by Borass after the season.
Mike your spot on with this and i'm really hoping DS doesn't bend to the stupid and instead uses this year for more development of our solid minor league talent base. We've done the stupid ( like the last trade deadline) to many times before so David stay the course!
One of the reasons I wrote an earlier post on trading for Tarik was to point out just how much it would take to get him.
My proposal was very light because that was all I would offer. I would not be ready to gamble away a minor league depth that has taken so long to build. Especially for one dude.
Good job Mike
The Mets need a true ace to guide their staff. They also need a continuous pipeline of great young talent to learn from their ace and the pitching coaches. Trading your top young talent for the ace doesn't make sense because the ace can't pitch every game. Maybe there is other value that can be found without offering those top two, or maybe you just wait until Skubal is a free agent. I'll bet by then there will be another shiny new object that everyone covets. (can you spell Yesavage?)
100% agree. Wait one year & make the splash in Free Agency. Let the youth develop AND contribute next year. Then fill in.
Keep the prime pitching prospects, keep the prime pitching prospects, keep th….
Put the right type of playoff-competitive team on the field next year & double down if all goes well. (2024 approach but this time relying on the youth with smart add-ons) & promote from within throughout the year.
Prospects dont always pan out. Look at who the Mets traded for Lindor. Remember anyone they trade for Gary Carter? What about Mike Piazza?
I say this because even though I agree with Mike and wouldn’t trade for Skubal, he is the best pitcher in the league. The Tigers are bitter at the expected breakup and so they want the house, the car and the boat. They know that they aren’t getting it. But, no matter what you give up now, the pressure to re-sign the guy will make Boras rip them off hard in negotiations. That’s the problem.
I would only trade for him thw way the Sodgers traded for Glasnow: give a three day negotiation window. Tigers won’t like that, but it’s reality.
Here is some perspective from Ken Rosenthal, a writer that I don’t like too much because he is always brown nosing, but he isn’t today:
“ Roberts said he wasn’t sure what he would do with his lineup for Game 6 against Jays right-hander Kevin Gausman, but going forward here’s the scary part: Among the Dodgers’ hitters signed beyond this season, first baseman Freddie Freeman is 36, third baseman Max Muncy 35, Kiké Hernández 34, outfielder Teoscar Hernández and Betts 33. Freeman, in particular, was quite productive during the regular season. But even he is not what he was in his prime.
The Dodgers had advantageous pitching matchups in the past two games but lost both because they scored a combined three runs. Left-hander Blake Snell gave up two homers on his first three pitches in Game 5, but his pitching line turned ugly — 6 2/3 innings, five earned runs — after reliever Edgardo Henriquez allowed two inherited runners to score. Roberts said Snell pitched “a heck of a game.”
The Dodgers’ rotation ERA in the postseason is 2.54. The bullpen ERA is 4.56. The team overall is 11-4, yet you wouldn’t know it from watching this series. The contrast between these teams isn’t just noticeable offensively. The Dodgers are inadequate defensively, too.
Consider two plays in right field from Game 5. Leading off the Jays’ fourth, Daulton Varsho lofted a 75.6 mph floater down the line that Teoscar Hernández played into a triple, leading to Toronto’s third run. And leading off the Dodgers’ sixth, Ohtani hit a 117.3 mph rocket that was caught by Addison Barger, who laid out to make a diving backhand grab.
The Dodgers also threw three wild pitches — two by Snell, one by Henriquez — in the Jays’ two-run seventh. By then, Dodger Stadium was funereal. Clayton Kershaw was probably never going to pitch, but his final home game before he retires could have been, should have been, so much more.“
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My point is letting the team get old chasing all these free agents and running up your payroll.
Can’t trade Mclane or Tong. You just can’t. The only position player i feel that way about is Benge.
After that. Give them whoever they want forward skubal but i agree that there needs to be a 3 day window to extend. $400 million? Just get it done. Boras will have to consider it considering the potential 2027 strike. 440 over 10 so ye has the highest pitcher aav and total value? Do it.
Skubal, mclane, tong, scott, holmes, manae (not counting him out). That would be freaking sick.
Would senga, sproat williams and 2 or even 3 other of their choice not named Mclane, Tong, Benge work? Id sign up for that in a heartbeat as long as it came with the extension
Keep the kids. Or you will hit the skids. I agree, Mike.
We also need to consider that Wenninger and Santucci will be on the cusp to join the Mets, possibly as early as this upcoming September. So even though it is great to have a glut of young pitching, at some point, a few of these talented arms need to be traded and no pitcher (not named Paul Skenes) can compare to the stuff that Skubal possesses!
So here are the up and coming SP prospects entering 2026:
McClain
Tong
Sproat
Scott
Wenninger
Santucci
Yes, you can never have enough starting pitching (especially given the frequency of UCL fragility). But we're not going to be able to keep all of the aforementioned. There are also some additional SPs who will on the radar by the end of the upcoming season.
You can get rid of veteran starters and weave in those guys in 2026 and 2027. Cheap and rising, not super costly and aging. I’d roll the dice on ALL 6 of those young starters making it into the Mets rotation by 2027.
Thank you Joe!
Thank you Gary! Watching the Bluejays, it's becoming more obvious committing to developing youth is our best strategy.
Dodgers only traded Ryan Pepot - he is on par with Jack Wenninger at best. Trading kids who throw 99 & maintain plus velocity is, clean medical histories, and low-effort deliveries are the guys you build around. The problem is - It doesn't matter what we pay the Tigers, that won't influence Skubal into signing an extension.
I couldn't agree more Mike nice job with the numbers and Steve being a numbers guy like me ,I hope he sees this article. I'm a guy that tends to be a prospect hunger too. But it makes sense to keeps our top guys ,Jett and Benge have to be Mets as Tong we need new blood that is ours under control.
@stevensacohen
I like the slogan Tom!!
That quote you published from Rosenthal says a lot. The Mets need youth and athleticism. They have really worked on building the farm to create a sustainable winner...destroying it for a rental just doesnt jive with what they have been doing. Obviously there are guys that will need to be traded as they can't keep everyone...but can we do it for a non-rental??
I guess the other thing is...have the Mets figured out how to properly evaluate their own talent? Part of me says no as they traded away Orze and let Vasil go for nothing...
Vasil pitched to a 2.5 WAR this year.....The only Met that had more WAR than Vasil was Diaz!
How about Orze? How many Mets relievers pitched better than him by WAR? Just Diaz and Raley!
Hopefully we don't list a bunch more guys from our last deadline that ended up being one of the worst in history in terms of results.
So yeah...if you are going to offload some of Sproat/Tong/Santucci/Watson/Wenninger...I hope you know who are the right ones and who are replaceable. Same goes for the offensive side.
Vasil’s numbers are skewed by pitching in the low offense AL Central and by being a reliever (who doesn’t have inherited runners counted against him).
ERA is very influenced by luck and he is a lucky pitcher. He has a 4.48 SIERA and a 4.28 FIP. He has a 24% whiff rate and 23.4% chase rate while only striking out 19.5%. And he walked almost 12%. Great example of how misleading reliever ERA is.
Gus, thanks.
Yes, but 2.5 WAR, is 2.5 WAR. They also threw away Hamel for nothing. They traded Gervase for a project and Mangum for a project. Too many risk cowboys in that front office.
Looks like FanGraphs doesnt like Vasil nearly as much. While he may have gotten some lucky breaks and I'm not claiming he is a star...he did log over 100innings and was quite productive. The Mets pitching was so bad this year that it doesnt take much to be better than what they had.
Stearns results this last year outside of Soto/Alonso/Holmes/Raley were just so bad. Its hard to even give credit for Soto/Alonso. Was it bad luck, bad process? Both?
I think I'm overly paranoid about the Mets trading away key prospects based on more recent history. I will also admit to being a prospect hugger like many of us at Macks Mets. I think its much more exciting to root for home grown players that excel.
Thank you Rene! It seems pretty straight forward, our best option is to identify a core group of prospects to develop. And then considering trading guys outside of that core for the right player.
Thank you RVH!
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