Mack Ade – Morning Report – 5-13-13

I think we need to talk about 2014.

I’ve been preaching this for three years now, but, I have to tell you, I’m starting to realize that this team just isn’t going to be competitive next season. There simply are too many holes in the dike to plug.

Nothing has changed about building a team around a powerful rotation, but, for now, it’s a one man show. Matt Harvey wins games because he gives up less runs (far less) than the other team. Pitchers like Dillon Gee and Jonathan Niese are losing games because of the opposite. This isn’t a game that’s played 15-14 and, if it was, the starters would be long gone anyway.

Frankly, I never had Niese in my “Fab 5”. I always had him traded for an outfielder and a younger version of himself. And Gee has had some nice outings as a Met, but his lifetime MLB ERA is 4.21, with it being 5.55 this year. Niese is 5.93 this season. We’ve been trying to find two more starters to fill in the 2014 rotation and now it looks like we might need four.

I wrote the other day about the Mets ultimate rotation. It was Harvey, Zack Wheeler, Rafael Montero, Noah Syndergaard, and Domingo Tapia. This remains what, IMO, is the best it gets, but there’s a catch. Two of these guys will be ready on opening day 2014, one more opening day 2015 (Montero) and the other two on opening day 2016.

Until then, the Mets can either fill in with guys like Gee and Niese, or add other names (Michael Fulmer, Logan Verrett, Luis Mateo, Steven Matz, Hansel Robles), but the eventual goal of any baseball team is to field your best rotation and the one I have above is it.

But this team goes nowhere without superior pitching. They have one star (David Wright), a catcher that will gone next year (John Buck), a career .247 first baseman (Ike Davis) a marginal inner infield (Daniel Murphy, Ruben Tejada), a .224 left fieder (Lucas Duda),  and four guys playing two outfield positions.

I don’t know where to start with this team. Obviously, I keep Wright, Harvey, Bobby Parnell, and Scott Rice… and I bring up Zack Wheeler and Travis d’Arnaud next season, but this isn’t basketball.  I need three more starters, a handful of relievers and six regulars in the field.

Is there anyone else in the system that can help?  RP Adam Kolarek  pitched well at AA but got creamed (11.25) after two AAA outings. Wilmer Flores (.271 – AAA) seems to have fallen from grace again and the Mets still won’t play him consistently at any position other than third base. Though healthy, Reese Havens’ time seems to have past, Josh Satin will be a free man next season, and I don’t even want to talk about Kirk Nieuwenhuis.

Does t get better in 2015? Well, as we broke out above and the other day, you should have a hell of a pitching staff by now.  The one change here is that four new names enter the outfield arena (Darrell Cecilliani, Cesar Puello, Cory Vaughn, Zo Harris). There also should be three decent relievers to come out of the system (Jack Leathersich, Jeffrey Walters, Adam Kolarek). It’s hard to tell right now where any of these guys will go big time. They all seem to be mastering the AA level which is a tough nut to crack. This will be your Las Vegas team next year and we’ll just have to wait and see.

That’s the problem. All we do is wait and see.

What am I supposed to tell you now? Don’t worry, Vincente Lupo, Wuilmer Becerra, and Ahmed Rosario will be ready by, what, 2018? Are you fucking kidding me? I’ve been writing this  ‘wait til next year’ shit since Carlos Beltran didn’t swing at that damn ball.

jj mack to me

hiya mack- love the site, especially the morning report. don't stop talking to, talking up and pulling for the "non-prospect" guys; it really adds to the human dimension of the sport, and makes for great original reading...plus you never know who will make it in this game! got a question for you about Jenrry Mejia. you mentioned in this morning's report you still see him as an eventual starter, and i'm curious if you've seen or know something i've missed as you probably pay much closer attention. from what i've heard he hasn't got much beyond his fastball, and the talk this spring was that even the fastball had lost the devastating cut that made him such a hot topic in 2010. do you think he'll develop the breaking stuff to make it as a starter? keep the the great work, -another mack

                Hey J.J. – As of right now, Mejia remains a starter and will return to the Las Vegas rotation once his rehab is completed. What he has left is to be determined. Don’t judge him on what you see now. I’m sure he’s not throwing 110% like he used to. As to movement, Mejia’s injuries basically make him start the process over of finding the zone and then mixing the pitches. The standard is, if I guy goes into a rotation, you give him at least six outings. Then we’ll see.

                Now, if it doesn’t work out, he still has enough God given talent to make the pen again… if… and, this is a big if… if his head is on straight. No one in the organization was knocked around more by two administrations.

Hi Mack, Just recovering from another brutal loss and although we're all prepared for a long season these games are still hard to swallow. I just read your latest post on the draft and was wondering if you would take Appel if he were available over a bat or is it as always a money issue with him. I was wondering what you thought about Joe D's post at Mets mesmerized "Does Buck and Plawecki make  trade bait for an OFer" considering we talked about trading TAD but you weren't as high on Plawecki and Boyd being solid major league material. Also your more recent thoughts on Beck Wheeler, Darrell Ceciliani, Rainy Lara  and an update on Tapia's injured hand. Thanks, Gary Seagren

                That’s all? J

Mark Appel – I would take Appel in a heartbeat and money should never be an issue for a talent like that. He’s potentially another Mike Harvey and is just about ready.

Metsmerized – I don’t read them

Trading Plawecki and Buck for OF – Buck alone can get you a AA/AAA prospect that can start in 2014. Plawecki is tearing up A-ball. In the sceme of things, that means nothing yet.

Boyd – I was thrilled when he told me that he added 15 pounds of muscle over the summer. So far, that has results in his slugging percentage going from .368 (2012) to .537. Hopefully the homers will come when he can play in a more friendly park.

Beck Wheeler – Wheeler’s a tough read. He was great in 2010 (GCL – 0.87), stuck up the stadum last year (Clones – 5.14), and, so far this year 1.23 at Savannah. The one constant is the K/IP ratio. Even in his bad year he had 37K/28.0-IP.

Here was my interview after the 2010 season:

                Mack:  We're talking today with a 2011 breath of fresh air named Beck Wheeler, who pitched out of the GCL Mets pen this past season.  Afternoon Beck. Are you back home now?

Beck:  I was home in San Diego for about 10 days but now I'm in Santa Barbara. I played college ball at UC Santa Barbara and now I'm back for the fall quarter to finish some classes and get my degree.

Mack: Beck. you weren't drafted and began your professional career as a NDFA. Tell us about those miserable three days you waited for your name to be called and how you hooked up with the Mets.

Beck:  Well, I was always a position player, playing shortstop, 3b, and DH and the coaches at UCSB asked me to start pitching before my senior year so I threw in bullpens, but only threw 4 innings during the actual college season. After our season was over, our pitching coach asked a few of us to throw a bullpen session for the Mets' scout and I guess he liked what he saw. I didn't expect much from the draft, especially for pitching, but he called the next morning and asked me to sign as a free agent so we went from there. It was one of the best phone calls I've received. 

Mack:  That's fantastic... now, let's get to an important question... your real name is Jeff Beck Wheeler.  What album was playing when your Mom and Pop started the birth cycle, Beck-Ola or Music From Free Creek?

Wheeler:  Ha ha.  I get a lot of comments on my name, surprisingly it had nothing to do with the artist. My Dad’s name is Jeff and my grandmother's maiden name is Beck. My parents always wanted my name to be Beck, but Jeffrey Beck Wheeler sounded better than Beck Jeffrey Wheeler. I've been called Beck my entire life and I couldn't be happier with my name.

Mack:  Beck, before we get into this past season, tell us a little about what you throw, what your go-pitch is, velo, etc.

Beck:  Well, I threw a fastball, split, and a curve ball. My fastball is usually around 90-92, and I used my splitter a lot with 2 strikes, or to get ground balls.

Mack:  Beck, it seems universal that most ballplayers aren't ready for the grind in their first professional season. Tell us what it was like for you this season?

Beck:  This season was definitely a grind that took some time getting used to. We were at the field everyday by 7am. Practice, conditioning, weight training along with playing games every day could really wear you down.

Mack:  I'm sure you are pleased with your season. My guess is you'll pitch Brooklyn in the spring. What are your plans for the off-season? Working on any new pitches?

Beck:  This off season I'll be back at school and will be able to work out with my old team in the weight room and on the field. As far as other pitches go I'm going to pick the coaches' minds and see if I can develop a good 2 seam and maybe a slider this off season.

Mack:  Super. In closing, is there anything you want to say to your growing list of fans out there?

Beck:  Thanks for all the support, and I'm looking forward to next year!

Observation:  This was a real positive addition and hats off to the Mets scout in recognizing the pitching potential of Wheeler. I hope to see him in Savannah next spring.

Darrell Ceciliani – The good news is he’s healthy. The bad news… .242, .292-OBP, 128-AB, 37-K.  I can’t see him earning a starting job in Las Vegas next year. That will go to Cesar Puello, Zo Harris, and Cory Vaughn

Rainy Lara – Toby Hyde wrote a piece recently saying that he felt that Lara is too good for the Sally League. Toby is correct. Lara should be in St. Lucie but, right now, there is no room for him (unless something happened during the two days I have been off lime). He looks like the real deal, but again (like Plawecki), this is A-Ball throwing to kids that swing at anything.