5-foot-10, 195-pounds; right/right profile; draft day age 20y 11m
This really is all about the value of leagues like Cape Cod, which is exactly where the world was introduced to Ervin.
Ervin played in 38 games, hitting .321, with 11-HR, 31-RBI and 10-SB. He immediately shot up to a low first round pick.
This year, for Samford, he's hitting .339 with 11-HR, 39-RBI, and 13-SB.
Phil Ervin wasn’t just a revelation early last summer - he was an eruption. Sure, scouts were aware of Ervin and the type of tools he had, but in a matter of about two weeks he forcefully announced himself as a first round talent for the 2013 draft. It sounds strange to be able to pin down the emergence of an elite prospect to one specific period of time, but it happened for Ervin. For those two weeks, he was the king of the Cape Cod League and summer collegiate league baseball. Of course, he brings much more to the party than just a two week white hot streak, but it’s stretches like these that stick in people’s minds for a long time. Link
At this point, it's a bit tough to get a read on Ervin's draft ranking. Big League Futures has him at #32 which would put him just outside the first round. Maybe he's there somewhere, but I could not find his name in the top 200 at draftsite.com. MLB Prospect Guide has him at #49. Baseball Prospectus has him probably going in the top 2 rounds and a near lock to be top 100 if he performs well in his junior season. I will be interested to see where BA has him ranked in the college top 100. The rap on mid-major guys is quality of competition and Ervin is on the smallish size with little room for projection in his body. The Southern Conference has some serious baseball programs in it such as Coastal Carolina, Western Carolina and Georgia Southern. Samford will be playing several series against SEC schools in 2013.My feeling is he might be a tweener where the late first round is a bit rich for him but maybe he won't be around for the second round? Or he could drop to the mid single digit rounds due to lack of elite competition in college. At any rate, I will definitely be keeping tabs on Phillip Ervin as college baseball gets started in the spring and as the draft approaches. link
Figures to get attention: Throughout the spring and particularly against SEC opponents such as Mississippi State, Auburn, and Alabama. Ervin made a lot of money this summer with a breakout performance in the most talent-rich collegiate wood bat league in the country. A solid spring should land him in the top two rounds and, given the presence of organizations that heavily weigh wood bat performances, he may be a near lock to come off the board in the top 100 picks or so. - link
Mack Eval - Ervin's value in the draft went way up after the injury to Ryan Boldt. This makes him either the third or fourth ranked OFer in the draft, depending upon your opinion of Austin Wilson. I like this pick, but I like Wilson more. He won't be around at #48 so either pick him at #11 or wave buh-bye. ETA - latest all start break 2015.
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