7/6/21

Tom Brennan - SOMETIMES, SEASONS CAN PIVOT FROM THE MOST UNLIKELY SOURCES

 Man, was I hoping to see Tylor Megill pitch in spring training.  

You see, I was impressed that in 2019, his first full season, he pitched well in low A Columbia, then again for Hi A St Lucie, and even got a very impressive 5 inning start in AA in. I became a fan.

2020, COVID pandemic strikes, though, and he never showed up in the 2020 news or with the Mets. Bummed about that, I surely was.

Spring 2021, he was in the high 20s in the Mets' official prospect list, and I figured, "well, maybe the experts know something I don't know."

He did throw a whopping 2/3 of one scoreless inning late in spring training.  

I wondered, when they used 36 other pitchers in spring training, why he didn't get into a game sooner - maybe they were right; maybe he was nothing more than a high 20s prospect.  Turned out he had COVID prior to spring training, so he did not get to pitch in games.

Season starts, he's in AA, and he pitches the season opener for the Ponies.  Walks 3 in the first inning, getting "ump-squeezed".  After that in AA, he was mostly dominant.  Great control.

Meanwhile, pitchers were being sucked up a vortex out of AAA to the Mets, due to the number of Mets pitchers who entered the IL infirmary.  So, Tylor gets quickly promoted to AAA.  Walks a couple in the first inning, but pretty much dominated after that.  Great control.

Of course he only dominated for 40 innings, in which he fanned 59 batters in AA and AAA, because the Queens vacuum cleaner needed to suck another starter to Queens.  Him.

So, when famous Mets starters like Jake, Thor, Wheeler, Matz, and Harvey needed an average of about 200 innings in AA and AAA, Megill had a total of 45.  Not 200.  Just 45.

Pundits expected rough roads ahead.  Too raw...not ready.  And they were right - except the rough roads ahead were for Megill's hitting opponents.

He faced truly tough teams in his first 3 starts - Atlanta twice, and red hot Milwaukee.  Trial by fire.

So, at a time the Mets were floundering a bit, Megill's 3 starts ended up in 3 crucial Mets wins.  Picture, if you will, if he had pitched like crap and they lost those 3 games...the Mets would be scuffling for their lives.

Considering the rapid progressive career sequence above, prior to his arrival in the big leagues, for Megill to help the Mets win those 3 starts was outstandingly important.

One reason for that success is the 59 Ks in 40 AA and AAA innings were no fluke.  

When you've recorded 43 big league outs and 19 of them are by strikeouts, that tells you one big thing - major league hitters are struggling BIG TIME trying to hit against the Big Fella.

Sometimes, in a season like the Mets are in, where they are in first place in a season where they need to WIN THE DIVISION to get in the playoffs, because the Wild Card teams will come out of the NL West and won't come out of the NL East, the season can pivot from the most unlikely of sources.  

A high 20s prospect with very few career pro innings would be that unlikely source.  Unless you saw that he threw big league stuff, which I took the time to do, with fine control, and real composure.  

Then, maybe it wouldn't be so likely after all.

Some guys get ready real quick.

I for one am looking forward to his likely success going forward.

Back in 2016, the Mets had 2 pitchers come up in August for their debuts who were getting pounded all season in PCL AAA action.  The two, Gsellman and Lugo, went about 9-4, 2.50 down the stretch for the Mets.  No Wild Card would have been won if they had come up and instead gone 4-9, 5.50.  They were that "unlikely source that year."

This year, it is Megill.  Somewhere, this writer (and fan) is smiling.

But don't listen to me.  Listen to him.  Megill said yesterday: 

"It's exciting, I'm just trying to put myself and the team in the best position possible to win each time I go out there. It's not about me all the time, it's about the team."

Tylor, it is about you, too. Congratulations.  

Keep making the unlikely happen.

10 comments:

Reese Kaplan said...

He is typical of the Mets progression cycle, making his major league debut in the year he turns 26. Remember how other teams promote players who are doing well at younger ages? He wasn't switching from shortstop to pitcher like some other starter I could mention.

Mack Ade said...

Tom

Morning.

I give both you and Ernest Dove credit on this one. You both had him early.

Mets fans have had the pleasure of watching our 1-2-3 punch of Jake, Stro, and Walker but both Tylor and Peterson have given us quality SP4 and SP5 starts.

It will get easier for him as his confidence at this level increases + the fact that the bats are allowing a pitcher with a 4 ERA to be a winner.

Tom Brennan said...

Thanks, Mack, and Ernest has always had that laser focus on the minors, so he saw the quality in Megill too.

Megill has grown light years this season. Amazing. And the growth ought to continue.

His next two starts ought to be easier (although it is never easy) - both against Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh has been hitting better of late, though. If he gets through those two strongly, he will be pretty well established.

Then, Carrasco will likely be back - making a very nice starting 5 - Jake, Stro, Taijuan, Cookie and Megill.

Tom Brennan said...

Reese, the cancelled COVID year did him in, or he would have debuted in 2020. Even the Mets prospect list in 2020 thought he had a very good chance to be added to the bullpen that year, before it got cancelled.

Oddly, he and Jake were both 25 years, 330 days old when they made their MLB pitching debuts. Could be auspicious.

Eddie from Corona said...

Tom this has been your guy before anyone ever heard of him

Even I was super excited about his debut and telling my friends about him based on how high you have alway had him… it’s nice to be right.

You brought up gsellman and Lugo in 3016… man what a lost opportunity because back then I was hoping Thor would bring us to the playoffs in that wild card game. Not so much for trying to win a championship but because I wanted Lugo and gsellman to pitch in the playoffs. Can you imagine what their trade value would have been if they had a big playoffs win?

I am an asset guy and about maximizing assets… sometimes you keep that asset and sometimes you sell high.
I am not a scout but we should be better at scouting our own guys.
Is Megill a young cheap controllable arm that could give us SP4/5 quality results so we don’t have to sign a Stroman or thor?

Or is this asset a piece to get someone who can be part of a core like Berrios….

I can’t say but I keep wondering if this GM and sandy can get it right and be the smartest people in the room.
I know Porter needed to be let go but like him as a baseball guy…. I am still waiting to see if Scott can be the guy or do we still need to find that guy…

But today kudos to you Tom

Tom Brennan said...

Thanks, Eddie. I just think Megill is a keeper because he is not just a rear-back-and-fire guy - he mixes his 3 pitches well, moves the ball around, and hits a lot of corners. Berrios might make sense - but if Carrasco is back in 3 weeks and Thor in 6 weeks, that is formidable.

Of course, injuries are epidemic - so for that alone, Berrios might be a good add - but not for Megill.

Yep on Gsellman - I am happy they kept Lugo, and part of it for him was his curve likely was less effective in super dry, elevated Las Vegas - but Gsellman would have been a great trade high guy after 2016.

My brother, the year Pelfrey was 10-1, was screaming TRADE HIM RIGHT NOW! He sure had that right. The Mets didn't.

John From Albany said...

Rays always seem to know when to trade players. They sure traded Chris Archer at the right time.

Dallas said...

Very nice post Tom I'm excited to see how he continues to perform with the big club.

Gary Seagren said...

One of the most impressive wins this season last night and I was hoping for at least 1 win against the Brew crew but now how about 2 with Jake on the hill and 5 and 2 vs. the Bucs would be sweet with hopefully CC added to staff.

Tom Brennan said...

Dallas, thanks, and let’s hope so.

Gary, let’s get greedy…6-1 vs. Bucs.