Reese Kaplan -- Learning to Say No to Bad Investments

Every club in baseball has had one or more contracts that when offered made people scratch their heads, and then, over time, made them gnash their teeth and blood pressure skyrocket over the poor decision making that saddled the club with this player and this expense.  Seattle surely felt that way about Robinson Cano and got the Mets to bite, but the thought today is not about the PED poster child, but about the shortstop they brought over from Cleveland.

No one is denying Francisco Lindor's obvious talents.  He can hit with power, run the bases aggressively, play a Gold Glove caliber shortstop (well, sometimes) and made four straight All Star appearances in his last four full seasons near the Cuyahoga River.  In his first season he finished 2nd in the Rookie of the Year voting.  Bear in mind he's also still just 27 years old.

The story about his monster contract seemed to evolve around a highly enjoyable meal shared with Mets owner (and fan) Steve Cohen.  Rather than risking Lindor ever hitting the market as a free agent, Cohen reached deep into his pockets and extended the Indians import for 10 years at $341 million.  That figure of $34.1 per season on average puts him in Jacob deGrom territory.  At the time a few people were shocked at the magnitude of the deal and the heavy spending was as anti-Wilponian as fans could imagine.  Not too many questioned it then.

Going forward there are a great many railing against owner Cohen for having hamstrung the club's payroll for a decade based upon Lindor's first unimpressive season in New York.  Granted, he's had some health issues to contend with and all of the sudden he was regarded as one of the faces of a big-city franchise.  The hindered swing caused by the injuries and the pressure of the huge deal likely combined to have him get off to a rough start, much as Carlos Beltran did his first year in New York.  Personally, I have faith he will rebound into the kind of player he has been in the past and no one will give a whit about the deal.

However, this same issue is facing the Mets once again with his buddy on the other side of the second base bag, Javy Baez.  He's earning relatively little this season based upon performance (less than Michael Conforto, for example).  His numbers other than batting average and strikeout totals are otherwise highly impressive.  His 2018 and 2019 full seasons were played at a phenomenal level, but overall given his one more year of MLB play than Lindor he's not approach his shortstop partner's WAR rating.  

Lindor has already been vocal about the Mets retaining Baez on a contract at year's end.  If they wanted to move in that direction, then the time to do it is now before he has the opportunity to see what his value would be on the open market.  What annual salary and number of years would be sufficient to entice the man to stay?  

While my gut says he'd want the same deal Lindor got, the fact is he deserves less.  Still, a $25 million per season deal for say eight years is still another $200 million investment and right now it seems the Mets have a great many other issues to address that suggest putting this much cash (if he can be had at that much lower level) into a player who showed his immaturity in the much publicized thumbs down incident.  

To be fair, take a look at what he's done for the Mets.  In his less than 2 months in Queens he's hitting .305 with 9 HRs and 19 RBIs over a period of 141 ABs.  Quadruple that for a full season's output and you have 36 HRs, 76 RBIs and probably 20 SBs.  It will, however, also come with shaky play in the field, some questionable base running and nearly 200 strikeouts.  

The Mets still have the issue of two more years of Robinson Cano whose primary position happens to be the same as the one Baez would play for the Mets.  Then there's Jeff McNeil who, despite a subpar 2021 season, is still a very talented hitter who plays much better at 2B than he does at 3B or in the outfield.

My thinking is that they would be better off letting Baez walk away without QO compensation (which the Mets can't get since he was dealt in the middle of his final year of club control).  It wouldn't make Lindor happy, but the game is about winning games, not pandering to one of your players.  Having that extra $25 million per year to spend, for example, on starting pitching would likely be a better investment in making a plan towards long term contention.