Remember's Ramblings: What to do for '22, Part 2A

 

What to do for '22

In Part 1, several weeks ago, I looked at the Mets free agents to be, Part 2 will take a stab at the remainder of the team by playing GM with other roster fixes.   Part 2 will actually be a 3 part series as well with this Part 2A discussing starting pitching and the infield.   Part 2B will follow next week with a discussion of bullpen and outfield options.   Part 2C will address management and other aspects.  

Much of the roster manipulation depends on the free-agent conclusions, specifically Baez, Conforto, and Syndergaard. 

Pitching:   While there have been some rumblings on the internet thinking that it may be a good idea to trade Jacob deGrom for a package of young players, I don't buy into that.   When healthy, and counting on him to be healthy in 2022, he is still the best pitcher in baseball and will continue to be for the next couple years.    He is the ace.   Hold, don't fold.   

Taijuan Walker has had an up and down year, but he is a pretty decent #3 or #4 pitcher who is under a reasonable contract for 2022.  Keep him. 

Carlos Carrasco should be back for a full year, but that was the thought for 2021 as well.   If he can figure out how to start a game and get through the first inning, he could be a very valuable pitcher. 

Give Tylor Megill a winter to rest up without throwing a lot and slot him into the 3 or 4 position that Walker does not take.   Outside of finding a magic potion to eliminate the gopher balls, there isn't much else Megill has to do to be a very good MLB pitcher. 

 I don't think DavidPeterson has earned a rotation spot and should start 2022 back in Syracuse to earn his call-up, although as a former first round draft pick, he should be give every option in spring training to prove he is healthy and effective and win a rotation spot.  

 I discussed Stroman in Part 1 and suggested they try to sign him for a couple more years if possible.   I still think so - perhaps even a 4 year deal makes some sense.   He would become the #2 guy.    

Noah Syndergaard is a wildcard at this point.  That is one call that will be extremely difficult for the team brass to make.   Judging by the year and recent history the Mets have had, this one could end badly - no Thor and a bad PR look in the process.   Let's see what lessons have been learned from Zack Wheeler.  I would love to see him back, either on the one year qualifying offer to prove his health or a multi-year deal. 

As 2021 proved, pitching is premium and there can never be enough.   Jordan Yamamoto could be back.  He had a very good re-hab start in Syracuse recently and could actually get a look in Queens before the end of the year.   He is a depth piece, better than many that have passed through in 2022.   Joey Lucchesi will still be out from his TJ surgery.      Trevor Williams has another year before free agency.   He has pitched fairly well in 3 starts and 4 clean-up outings to a sub 2.00 ERA since coming over from the Cubs with Baez.   He could be another floater option. 

A couple of free agents on the market to look at might be Jon Gray  and Carlos Rodon, although they need to look closely at signing players with qualifying offers attached, depending on the draft pick effects.

Infield:   Let's get the big one out of the way early.  Francisco Lindor ain't going anywhere.  The Mets should become his team sooner than later.   He will be the shortstop, and a good one, in 2022.    The rest of the infield is not as well defined.  

Pete Alonso is the only other near certainty to return, and rightfully so.    2021 has been a solid year with some good and bad.  His OPS is down .092 (.941 - .849), his home runs are down, his RBI are down, and his walk rate is down a couple percentage points.    On the positive, his batting average is steady from 2019, and he has cut his strikeout rate by 6% to just a bit over 20%.    His ground ball rate is also down.   For good or bad, he has been spraying the ball to all fields more in 2021 than the last couple years.   His BABIP is about league average.    The 2021 Alonso is probably closer to what he will deliver on average than the 2019 Alonso.    His defensive metrics are showing out at average or slightly above.    He and Lindor are the cornerstones of this team.

My hope is that Javier Baez will be back to man 2nd base full time next year (and beyond).   While he got off to a little rocky start in New York, he has shown how good he can be over the last month. 

Robinson Cano will also be back from his self-induced sabbatical in 2022.   He will be an expensive bench player, but unless his contract clouds the way to re-sign Baez, that is what he will/should become.   His contract and suspension/drug history make him untradeable.   I do not see the Mets eating the remaining $40M that he is owed.     His presence will make the roster build a little more complex.   It is possible he can play some third base (or outfield?), but that remains to be seen.  

Third Base is the space that needs some help.   J.D. Davis had the starter's role early in the year before injury struck and Jonathan Villar took it and has become the everyday player there.   He will be a free agent and while I would welcome him back, he really should be more of a bench/versatile guy that bounces around for his 400 ABs.    I think Davis is not the option there.   He can hit well enough, but did not show much power this year.  His defense has moved him to the bench.  He is probably a trade candidate.    While I was hoping for a Kris Bryant acquisition at the deadline, I don't think another high priced free agent is in the cards for third base this off season.    As for help from the system, Mark Vientos is probably closest.  After a rough start, he had a very strong AA season but has yet to see AAA action.  If he can start strong at Syracuse in 2022, he may be an option if required at mid-year.    He is more known for his bat than this glove, and I have seen print that he will not stick at third in the majors for that reason.

To sum things up, I don't see a lot of change to the starting pitching and infield rosters for 2022.   Of the three free agents in this group, I anticipate Baez will be the most likely to be back in the Orange and Blue, while it is not likely that both Stroman and Syndergaard will be back.   Perhaps one of them (Syndergaard accepts a qual offer?)  (Stroman has done well and is happy at Citi??).   Neither of them will get a top-shelf contract with the Mets.  

Outfield, Bullpen and Catching is up next .