I am going to start off 2022 with a topic I love - HITTING!
We here at Mack's Mets often kick around the merits of hitting vs. fielding, offense vs. defense.
When you get both in one established player, like a Francisco Lindor, it doesn't come cheap.
Me? If I have to choose one or the other, I opt for offense.
My brother was spit-balling about stuff on the phone, and during his wide-ranging discussion, he brought up Francisco Lindor and Rey Ordonez.
Again the Bro' took the strong position that you need WINNERS to win, and if it was expensive to get Lindor, screw it, you got a guy who can hit 30 HRs AND defend. You ride him as long as he is really good, then look to do something else. If you have to eat some contract years down the road, cost of doing business.
We all realize that Lindor struggled mightily early on while foolish Mets fans booed him, then got hot, then sadly got hurt and missed several weeks, then returned and hit mostly well. So he had a bad year. But over his last 100 games, excluding his glacial start in April and the first games of May, he had 19 HRs and 60 RBIs. Play 150 games at that pace, and he hits 30 HRs and drives in 90. I'll take it. So will you.
My bro reminded me that, while Ordonez won 3 Gold Gloves at SS, when it really counted, he had that 1999 Atlanta playoff series in which he went 1 for 24.
For those entire playoffs (two series) in 1999, in 10 games, he first had 3 singles, a double, and a run scored and 2 RBIs in the 4 game series win against Arizona, but then had just a single with no runs, RBIs, or walks in the 6 game loss to Atlanta.
All you defense-minded folks, it's been 22 years, so it is now OK to say it - Rey's wimpy bat let them down when it counted, even if his glove helped the team during the season to get to the playoffs.
Point well taken. I wonder how a few more hits from Rey O might have helped the Mets get past Atlanta to the next round. Especially since the 4 losses to the Braves were by 5 total runs.
You see, being cheap can get you so far. Until you don't go further. Except for going fishing.
Why did the Mets go so far in 2015's splendid, but ultimately unsuccessful, playoff run? You had a guy whose defense was criticized by many, Daniel Murphy, who was stunningly raking against every super-elite pitcher on the planet. Lefty Clayton Kershaw? No problem. Zack Greinke? No problem.
My guess is if that Murphy had been on that 1999 Mets team, with Edgardo Alfonso sliding over to SS, the seemingly invincible Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine would have gone home to defeat. The Mets would have gone on to the World Series.
If I took away one lesson from that 2015 playoffs, which the Wilpons utterly missed to their demise, is that you need ELITE hitting to win in the playoffs. Or a whole lotta luck, like the Rocky the Rock Star Swoboda World Series diving catch in 1969 - if he tries that 10 more times, not sure he pulls it off once.
Because elite pitchers in the playoffs? They will most often grind mediocre hitters into dust. The Wilponzis let Mighty Murphy go, after we thirsty Mets' fans had just seen Murphy do THAT!
The Mets chose instead to keep low charisma Lucas Duda, when they could have traded the Hulk and let Murphy take over at first base.
What did Duda do in the playoffs? Well, he was in 17 total career playoff games. In one of them, he had 3 hits and a walk, a HR, and 5 RBIs. Yay - he was Babe Ruth for a day.
In the other 16 games, tho', he was Duda the Dud - 8 for 46, 4 walks, 21 Ks, no HRs, 3 RBIs. A playoff neutron bomb for his clubs.
You know, the kind of guy who can't hit elite pitching. A guy who, per Baseball Reference, in 607 plate appearances in his career in "late and close" situations hit a miserable .189. Draw your own conclusion, but seems to me that if that stat had instead been .260, the Mets win a lot more close games in the Reign of Duda.
In contrast, vilified slugger Albert Belle hit a power-packed .273 in late and close situations, which meant he had 50% more hits per at bat in those situations than Duda. Baseball may have vilified him, but he gave much joy to Indians fans.
Duda also had that incredible, game losing errant throw home in one of the World Series games. "No, Lucas, look to your right. See it? Home plate is over there". Wide by a country mile. A total playoff DUD.
Just look also at 2016, where the Mets lost 3-0 in the Wild Card game to BUM-garner, when a scoreless game was lost in the last inning when the Jints broke through because no one in the Mets line up could "Beat Elite". If Murphy's 2016 elite bat remains with the Mets, do they win that game? I bet they do. Something within me tells me I KNOW they do.
Need another example? The Mets picked up an aging Mike Bordick in 2000, a year in which the Mets lost in the World Series to the Yankees. Bordick in the playoffs that year? He had a hit and run scored in each of the first two playoff games of the first series round that year. After that? 2 for 26, no RBIs.
Bordick 2000 playoff totals? 4 for 33, no RBIs. Bordick turned out to be a difference maker - he greatly helped the Mets - to fail.
Defense will only get you so far. Elite offense will get you further. In the PLAYOFFS - where it counts.
If your "elite offenders" can also flash leather, all the better.
If your elite defenders can't offend in a good way, you get this:
In 2021, they had 2 elite defenders - Maybin and Almora - who went 7 for 80, no RBIs. As in NONE.
Add in Luis Guillorme if you'd like, another elite defender. The trio totaled 212 at bats - and just a measly 5 RBIs. In case you missed it, the Mets missed the playoffs - in my assessment - primarily due to a lack of offense. RBIs, you see, have a strong correlation to runs, and many runs win many ball games.
By comparison, former Mets pitcher Mike Hampton was up 725 times in his major league career, hit .246, and had 79 RBIs and 97 runs scored. He was 148-115 as a major league pitcher - but if he hit like a typical pitcher, he probably would have been 115-148 instead.
Hitting wins games.
Please don't get defensive, and I hope I didn't offend you.
SO...what do you think? Who do you want on the field when it counts? I want hitters.
10 comments:
So, following your logic, the club should find a place for J.D. Davis to play since he provides offense at the expense of defense, yet everyone is on the bandwagon to dump him.
Tom
You know how I feel about defense, especially middle field (C, P, 2B, SS, CF) defense where the lion share of balls are hit.
It is not a coincidence that the Mets defense has been sub-par while they have not made the playoffs.
So Tom I guess you don't have Bordicks poster on your wall and just another example of the Wilpons not doing enough even when we were headed to the post season. Now as far as Lindor goes it's not about getting him it's that he could have been had for lot less after the season so what was the rush so to me it means Stevie will spend what he has to to win and I'm on board for that.
Reese, I am a contrarian - I'd be OK with JDD at 3B. I think his defense would be passable, and he was hitting a ton before the hand injuries last year. If healthy, he ought to hit well for a starting 3B.
Mack, I think we are OK at catcher defensively compared to, say, 2020; strong at SS; if McNeil bounces back at 2nd as I think he is capable, adequate defense/fine bat, and an upgrade in Marte instead of Nimmo in CF. Overall, perhaps not strong up the middle defensively, but solid. Good enough - but last year, 29th in runs scored. They need to raise that close to top 10 to win the division. I'd take 150 more runs scored this year, and 25 runs lost due to weaker D.
Hey analytics and 2020s baseball agreees with you. Teams go with the 15-20 home run guy over the good field no hit shortstop and the elite defensive CFer. The 2B with range is gone because the shifts make him not so important. The catcher who could throw out runners is gone because analytics frowns on stolen bases. Probably the biggest factor is rise in K’s , who needs gloves when 10-12 guys strike out every game.
Gary, part of the problem with waiting on signing Lindor instead of just giving him the 10 years was that if you bring in another big SS (Correa or Storey) now instead, you'd pay a lot - and lose a top draft pick - I wonder what the dollar value of a first rounder is (meaning what it would eventually cost you to go outside to fill the hole that a first round pick would fill)? $50 million? Example? Conforto. We got good value out of him very cheaply. If he had been lost in a top free agent signing, they'd have had to replace him with a far higher cost ballplayer.
Alex, all superb points you make - thank you. Those are reality in today's game.
A couple comments here Tom, and they since they are not particularly connected, I'll separate them.
First, it is not fair to mention Duda's throwing error in this article. He was in there for his bat. I am OK with pointing out the disappointing stats he had at the plate, but if you want offense and are willing to sacrifice defense, it is throws like that that will bite you.
Now, to play a little devil's advocate here, how did the Mets lose the 2015 World Series? Not to a great hitting Kansas City team, but to a great fielding scrappy team that was determined not to strike out and just put the ball in play and ran circles around the bases, getting enough pitching because the Mets wanted the big hits. They got beat by good old fashioned baseball.
Also, the 'old' St. Louis Cardinals did a lot of winning with hitters like Ozzie Smith, Tom Herr, and Vince Coleman in their line-up over the years.
Also, while the Mets won in 1986, they failed to do so with terrific offensive teams in 1987 and 1988 somehow. The '87 Cardinals (as mentioned above) beat them at 'baseball' while the '88 Dodgers did pretty much everything right and got hot at the right time.
The '69 Mets were not the best offensive club - think Al Weis and Ed Charles first, but they won playing excellent fundamental baseball, getting the hits when they needed them and playing outstanding defense.
That all said, I like better offense than the 2021 Mets showed, but I love good "D" up the middle and some team speed. My opinion at this point is that they will regret not bringing Baez back to play second. Lindor's defense cannot shine as much without a keystone partner that he is not in sync with. Think rat/raccoon/squirrel. Figuring out second base will be one of the top key issues for the team in spring traing.
Heck, they will regret not bringing Baez back for his bat as well! He is the type of offensive player that can help a team with his power.
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