I work at this draft thing at least eight hours a day. Information continues to pour in from other draft writers, team coaches, players themselves, and schools they attend.
Needless to say, this process is continually fluid and my thoughts change sometimes hourly.
This post will begin a series of updates leading up to the draft. How often I do this remains as fluid as the information coming in.
The Level of Talent In The Upcoming Drafts
Do you remember me telling you that the 2020 draft had bunches of talented players?
Then, do you remember me telling you that 2021 would be an epic drafting year?
And lastly, do you remember me telling you that 2022 might be the most talented year in the past decade?
Well, get ready for 2023.
The 2023 draft just trumps 2022, and all the other drafts, by a long shot and we may not see another one like this until… err…
It seems that the talent level just keeps growing year after year, while, at the same time, every “expert” out there keeps telling you that baseball is dying.
Well, it ain’t dying at the player level, with players who train harder, work harder, and are coached better than ever before.
“Fans” might be turning to faster sports, but you are witnessing the finest growth of talent in the history of this game.
As a fan, just sit back and enjoy it.
The Tommy John Guys
Every draft has casualties, usually involving pitchers that have developed problems resulting in Tommy John Surgery and being shut down for the entire 2022 season.
So far, we have three.
Duke RHP Henry Williams joined Alabama LHP Connor Prielipp and UConn RHP/1B Reggie Crawford this week as the latest casualty to go under the knife.
All three of these guys were early favorites to go in the first round. Prielipp, at the time of the injury, was considered one of the top five names in the draft.
But the most exciting player of the three is Crawford, who was a genuine two-way prospect. Crawford could hit for power, hit for average, and throw a ball 101 miles per hour.
Before the surgery.
Where do we rank these guys now?
Well, I don’t go crazy when a pitcher has to lose a year due to this. Look at J.T. Ginn. Hell, look at Jacob deGrom.
Sure, there are some… like our old Dark Knight… that never find that magic again, but the procedure is almost routine these days. It just takes a hell of a lot of time and work to get back to being able to stand on the mound and throw away.
So, I expect these three names to be called, latest, early on the second day of the draft.
Who Currently Are Lock Solid Top 10 Picks?
A lot of you that read this are Mets fans and I am sure you are dying to find out who they pick at 1.11 and 1.14.
Last time I wrote about the players that were guaranteed to be picked in the top 10 picks, I had 10. That has changed.
Right now, the stone cold locks are (IMO):
1. RHP Dylan Lesko
2. C Daniel Susac
3. 2B Termarr Johnson
4. SS Brooks Lee
5. 3B Jace Jung
6. OF Elijah Green
7. OF Druw Jones
8. OF Chase DeLauter
Past this, right now, is all speculation.
That leaves the Mets a ton of names to target for both these picks, though four of them will most probably be lost with the 1.9, 1.10, 1.12, and 1.13 pick.
Here are some of the names the Mets must consider:
RHP Blade Tidwell - Soaring up the charts. Consistently sits in the high 90s topping off at 99. Still learning how to place it.
10-3, 3.74 last season for Tennessee. Anyone that wins 10 games in a short college season, for a school in that conference, has to be taken seriously.
RHP Peyton Pallette - The Arkansas righty sits 92-95, topping at 97. The 80s curve is a killer, that has produced spin as high as 3,530 (vs. South Carolina).
LHP Brandon Barriera - stress free preppy that throws a 92-94 fastball, topping off at 97. In addition, has a wipeout slider.
C Kevin Parada - Team leading .318, 9-HR, 42-RBI for Georgia Tech. This is a first round bat with average arm and skills behind the plate. May not stick there but his bat will take him to the pros.
2B Robert Moore - Pure second baseman that stat lined .283, .384-OBP, 16-HR, 53-RBI for Arkansas last season. Possesses a ++ glove and can fill in at short too.
3B Jacob Berry - 17 HR, .352/.439/.676 at Arizona last season. Followed his coach to LSU for 2022. Simply put, one of the best hitters in the 2022 class.
OF Brock Jones - .311, .646-slug, 18-HR, 62-RBI for Stanford last year. That’s over one RBI per game. Solid defensive game, but limited arm pushes him to the corner.
OF Gavin Cross - .345/.415/.621/1.036, 11-HR for Virginia Tech last season. Top of the lineup menace. Big bat speed and has shown huge power potential. Right fielder with a plus arm.
A Year Away
Lastly, don't get too hung up on these early projections.
So much is going to happen before the next draft. There is a whole season to happen that will create a new early first round pick, at least one of the players will fade, and some will prove our early projections were correct.
Look at Henry Davis last year. He was barely mentioned as a late first round pick in 2021 and the third catcher overall.
Instead, he wound up 1.1.
Stuff will happen and we will be with you all the way.
4 comments:
I wonder if the new CBA might possibly allow draft pick trading - if they did, I wonder if the Mets could trade 11 and 14 for a top 2 or 3 guy - or if doing that would just be a big mistake.
No one wants a team to play to lose, but since we didn't make the playoffs, I wish we'd lost more and moved up the list.
If the Mets had won just 70, instead of 77 wins, they'd have the 7th pick - instead of the 14th. At this point, last season would be a faded memory - and had we lost more earlier on, we'd likely still have Crow.
The secret to playing the drafts correctly is to draft top players in the first 4 rounds plus sign 2 top International picks a year
AND NOT TRADE THEM.
The top talent in this draft is 25 deep
Deeper next year
Yep, we gotta be keeping the very good ones. Hopefully they have enough foresight to know the ones that will become stars and the ones that are unlikely to, and trade (if any) only the latter.
Sometimes it may pay to trade a prospect - when Amed was a minor leaguer and baseball's #1 overall prospect briefly, he probably could have fetched a whole lot at the time.
You trade when multiple top talented prospects that only can play one position at the major league level reaches close to the top of your affiliate system at the same time.
Or when you sign someone for 6+ years and it blocks another singularly dimensional player from reaching the pros.
Just pushing someone like Lucas Duda to the outfield doesn't work.
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