Reese Kaplan -- Should Brandon Nimmo Be Traded Before Free Agency?

With the calendar about to flip to February, most folks here have mentally shifted into a Spring Training mindset.  It's this time of the year when normally we find out whose winter facial hair has altered their playing day appearance, who is fighting some aches and pains from getting back to the mandated level of exercise, and how cold it is in what everyone always assumes is sunny and hot Florida.  

This year is different, of course, with no negotiation conclusions made, no new CBA signed and frankly no end in sight which will end the lockout and put 2022 baseball back on the schedule.  Some were encouraged by the little bit of negotiating activity that took place this past week, but talking together is not the same thing as signing agreements.  Call me cynical, but until a new CBA is executed, I won't put much faith in to the beginning of a new season.

During this past week one of the interesting story lines to emerge concerned Brandon Nimmo and his pending free agency after the 2022 season.  Mets fans and media types are still somewhat stuck in the past with the belief that anyone represented by Scott Boras must instantly be taken off the table as part of the team in the future.  We all remember the ridicule Boras heaped on the Wilpon family and many have so solidly put the name Boras in a no-way corner that the fact anyone should allow the man to represent him instantly becomes a persona non grata.  It is one of the primary reasons people cite for the Mets letting Michael Conforto walk away (though his horrific 2021 campaign is certainly a justifiable reason as well).

Getting us back to Brandon Nimmo, he was someone who came to the club as a high draft pick when no one thought he was deserving of such consideration after coming from a non-baseball oriented system of development.  His minor league career was good but not great.  He hit .277 overall but never showed the kind of power, speed nor defense that made people think he was worthy of the top pick designation.  About all he had going for himself was an ability to work counts and get on base at a commendable clip.  That skill seemed to refine itself further and he's regularly over .400 in on base percentage.

Now as a hitter, he was not looking to be the big stick people had hoped.  He started off his major league career in the 4th outfielder track.  He was getting on base and making people feel good with his big smile, but the batting average wasn't there.  The power was occasionally evident and his defense improved to the level of adequate, but no one has penciled him in as a long range solution.

Then came the last two seasons when he upped his average into the .280s and .290s.  All of the sudden people were jumping onto the Nimmo bandwagon aggressively.  Everyone was fine with benching Dom Smith after one bad year or trading away Jeff McNeil for the same reason, but Nimmo was going to be a part of the Mets now and down the road as well.  

Nimmo's bigger issues are his health and his agent.  Right now he's earned $4.7 million for his 2021 efforts and his arbiter will likely see him get a nice bump up to the $6 million plus range for his final year of eligibility.  Many folks feel that the team's outfield right now has Nimmo in left, Starling Marte in center and Mark Canha in right.  It's that pen-to-paper arrangement that makes people think guys like McNeil, Smith and J.D. Davis are readily available in trades.

Now let's think ahead to the 2023 season (whether or not a 2022 season happens in normal or abbreviated form).  At that point Nimmo is a free agent and with Scott Boras leading his negotiations, he's surely going to be looking for an age-30 season in the 4-5 year range at a much larger salary.  Consequently it came as no great shock that the concept of trading away Brandon Nimmo now has surfaced.

Now bear in mind that Mr. Boras represented some free agent hurler named Max Scherzer and that association didn't stop the Mets from bringing the three-time Cy Young Award winner to Citifield.  Steve Cohen is not part of the Wilpon family and when a player is identified as being a good fit for the team then he will sit down to negotiate with the super agent Boras.

So that brings up the question of whether or not it makes sense to ink Nimmo to a longer term deal now before he hits free agency, do you allow him to walk away without a QO since he's not yet at that level of player, or do you deal him away in July at the trade deadline to get something in return rather than nothing?  It is a topic many have not really pondered seriously, but if the club was indeed interested in fortifying its offense with free agents like Kyle Schwarber, Nick Castellanos or Seiya Suzuki, would dealing Nimmo now be a smart idea?

Remember that health issue when it comes to Nimmo.  Back in 2018, his third in a Mets uniform, he put in the closest approximation of a full season, playing 140 games out of 162 and had 433 ABs.  It was a decent season with a .263 average, 17 HRs and 47 RBIs, but not All Star by any means.  

He unfortunately follow up with a 2019 of only 69 games, a full 2020 during the 60-game season with 55, and last year it was just 92 games.  Health-wise, I'd think of him with a little David Wright reality when it comes to long term value.  Yes, it's nice to secure players who you think are part of your core going forward, but if they're not on the field then it's simply not good business.  

Right now I am of the opinion that you ought to at least put out some feelers to other clubs to find out if they want to fortify your minor league roster or part with some much-needed pitching.  If you're going to lose him for nothing at the end of the year as he doesn't seem to warrant a QO, it's better to get something rather than nothing.  Right now there are no contract issues on the heads of the trading block trio, so it would seem you could afford to peddle Nimmo away and retain one of them as a spare part if not a starter.  Never say never.