Reese Kaplan -- Sometimes You Just Have to Say No!

To hear many Mets fans in a beer-fueled debate, the answer is very clear to most of them that all the team has to do once the lockout is settled is to sign Kris Bryant to become the missing link to postseason play.  Given that he's played 3rd base, shortstop and all three outfield positions, he certainly brings the versatility that all of the sudden has become a primary metric for evaluating new players.  Is he the best choice?  Let's take a look.

No one can deny the fast start he had to his major league career with the Cubs.  When he broke through as a starter during the Mets' last World Series year in 2015, he was clearly playing at an elite level.  He finished the year with a .275 batting average, 26 HRs and 99 RBIs.  His OBP was .369, his slugging was .488, and his OPS was .858.  He was awarded the National League Rookie of the Year trophy.  About the only chink in the armor was his 199 strikeouts, but he was obviously getting on base and delivering at the plate.  

In his second year in the majors he was even better.  He upped the batting average to .292, the home runs to 39 and the RBIs to 102.  His strikeouts dropped to 154 and his runs scored increased from 87 to 121 (which led the league).  This time the trophy on his mantle read, "MVP" and it was well deserved.

Now a great many people feel that the 2016 version of Kris Bryant is what they can expect from the man year in and year out.  It seems that the numbers he achieved that season were an outlier.  Since then he has averaged quite a bit less.  He did cross the 30 HR threshold once more, but his RBI totals topped out at just 77. His batting average has been trending downward as well, though his strikeout numbers also continued to decline.  Baseballreference.com has him projected for 2022 to hit .258 with 21 HRs and 62 RBIs. Those are solid but wholly unspectacular numbers.

Now what would it take to land the now 30-year-old Bryant?  His final season prior to hitting free agency he was paid $19.5 million.  Obviously he'll be looking to lock up a long term deal for at least 5 years as he hits the middle of his prime time as a player.  He'll want to exceed the $20 million mark and likely would approach $24 million AAV per season.

For a point of comparison, recent former Met Javier Baez just signed to play shortstop for the Detroit Tigers for six years and $140 million.  The one-year-younger Baez will play a more challenging defensive position, is projected to provide similar offensive numbers and will also steal more bases.  The former pair of Chicago Cubs are solid players for sure, but you have to scratch your head and wonder if this level of compensation is sensible.

Many folks offer up the conjecture that once you trade away Jeff McNeil (and/or Dominic Smith and J.D Davis) you are creating space for a player like Bryant to get his 500+ ABs probably in the outfield.  Getting 20+ HRs and 75+ RBIs is fine work but I have my doubts it's worth that kind of financial commitment.  

If you flipped the roster construction over, you would keep the .299 hitting Jeff McNeil who would provide a bit less power but very solid on-base work.  His compensation would be significantly lower.  In his lackluster 2021 season he earned $642K, and although he's likely due an increase it won't be a huge one given his numbers last year.  

Dominic Smith earned $2.55 million for his mediocre 2021 season.  He'll probably get no more than $3 million.  J.D. Davis was injured for most of the year and earned $2.1 million and is slated for $2.5 million in 2022.   

The point here is that the Mets could keep all three of these players for an investment for one year of $6.5 million and not have any long term financial commitment.  That would leave $17.5 million to fortify the pitching staff with a 4/5 starter and a quality bullpen arm.  It would seem to me that shooting your wad for moderate offensive production in Bryant would prevent you from paying for quality pitching unless the luxury tax limit is blown away completely.  

Put me in the "Just say no" camp when it comes to signing Bryant.  If you wanted to get an outfielder, no one has checked in on Japanese import Seiya Suzuki yet.  He is younger and offers both power and speed while offering up a career batting average over .300.  Rumor has it that the financial commitment to Suzuki and his posting team is not horrible.  It would seem that the younger and speedier Suzuki would be a much better investment.