Tom Brennan - The Long-Term Lack of Mets' International Player Signing Success

MOST SIGNED INTERNATIONAL PLAYERS HEAD TO THE DSL AND NEVER MAKE IT FURTHER

The Mets just signed Simon Juan, a young outfielder ranked around 15th in baseball's top 50 international prospects, and a bunch of other guys not in the MLB top 50.

It's funny how, if you're not totally in the weeds, each year you see who the Mets sign in the international market and say, "who are these guys?"  

Considering most are 17 years old or less, such unfamiliarity is understandable.  Considering the lack of historical career success of so many of the former signees, with so many starting AND finishing their careers in the DSL developmental league, it is further understandable.

We know in general that the higher a guy is picked in the first round of the annual baseball draft, the better they tend to turn out to be - a 30th overall draft pick, over the decades, will not have nearly, on average, the success of an overall 1st pick.  Even though nothing is guaranteed - first overall pick lists have their shares of Steve Chilcott's.  

I wonder, therefore, how a 15th overall international teenager signing will fare vs., say, one of the 3 top international signings?  My guess is there is a similar dramatic difference (consider top 3 international guys like Vlad Guerrero and Wander Franco).  

That basic, but key, question involves a lot of analysis that I leave for someone else (but one that the Mets' front office who receive pay checks to do this sort of analysis should surely undertake).  If they want me to analyze it, let's negotiate an analyst fee!  Heck, my analyst gets a fee, why shouldn't I?

Anyway, if you're spending several million smackers a year on international signings, you ought to figure out how you will get maximized future outcomes for the money shelled out.

Personally, though, down on the Mets' farm right now, who among you can not be somewhere in the range of reasonably excited to totally enthused over 3 internationally-signed players in the system who are now under development:

Francisco Alvarez (ranked the Mets' # 1), a catcher who seems targeted for real MLB stardom.

Ronny Mauricio (3), a SS(?) who is still a work in progress, but who flashed surprising power and potential in 2021.

Alex Ramirez (7) - a toolsy 18 year old OF who played in 2021 like a toolsy 21 year old.  Maybe he'll be a toolsy MLB 21 year old in a few years.

Also listed in the Mets' Top 15 prospects, and hence worthy of future MLB career consideration, are pitchers Robert Dominguez (9), Jose Butto (14), and Junior Santos (15).  And a few more from 16 thru 30.

Overall, a very solid and well represented current international list.  Any objective Mets fan or even more casual observer has to be happy with the improvement in foreign signings in the past several years.

It got me to start thinking, regarding Mets' international players:

1) Who have the Mets signed who did very well for an extended period with the Mets.  

2) Who are players who've made it to the big leagues and are no longer with the Mets.

My take?

The Mets have done a lot better in recent years in signing successful, or projecting to be successful, international players, and...

Over the decades, they've not gotten all that much to show for their international signing efforts.

Looking back, John from Albany quickly reminded me, the Mets did get a dandy when, in 1991, they signed Edgardo Alfonso. Thirty one years ago is a long time, huh?

Around 20 years ago, they bagged another terrific talent in Jose Reyes, the SS.  They did sign another Jose Reyes after him, BTW, but he went nowhere fast.

Jeurys Familia often gets criticized, but his body of work as a (mostly Mets) MLB reliever has been very solid.

Wilmer Flores - many a Mets fan shed a tear when he left the Mets.  A moderate (clearly below All Star level) MLB talent.

Carlos Gomez did little as a Met, but he did help bring Johan Santana to the Mets, and Señor CG had a very solid MLB career.

Rey Ordonez was a great field, little hit guy for a handful of seasons.  Nice while it lasted.

Jenrry Mejia saved 28 games one season, but accomplished little else.

Ruben Tejada started out well in his early 20s, but petered out, and is fondly remembered by very few, other than Reese Kaplan.

I imagine I am leaving a few hombres out - this is off the top of my head.

They've also signed - and recently traded - Amed Rosario and Andres Gimenez, both of whom ought to be solid, if not above average, major leaguers when all is said and done.

They've had many duds, like Fernando Martinez (of course, who knows what he might have become without having the knees of a 60 year old when he turned 21); Greg Guerrero (Vlad got all the family talent); Adrian Hernandez (yo, Adrian, how did you only manage to hit .133 in 98 minor league at bats with 3 RBIs last year?); and others.

Overall, as I see it, not much from the signed-by-Mets international front players of real Mets' impact over 30 years.

They have, however, employed many Latin ballplayers over the years in key roles, who started out elsewhere.

On the 2021 and 2022 rosters are Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia, Starling Marte, Eduardo Escobar, Miguel Castro, Carlos Carrasco, Yennsy Diaz, and Antonio Santos (along with prospects Mauricio and Butto, to kept them out of Rule 5).

Of course over the years, the Mets have had some very notable mid-career acquisitions of players initially signed on the international front, most notably baseball greats Pedro Martinez, Carlos Delgado and Carlos Beltran, as well as the likes of Endy Chavez, Wilson Ramos,  Armando Benitez, and Francisco Rodriguez.

In conclusion, if the Mets' hierarchy likes international players so much that they end up signing or trading for so many at very costly prices,  hopefully they will continue to cultivate (and improve in the correct signing of) international talent...to me, it's clear the Mets need to turn MORE of their international teenager signings into impact big leaguers.

And, understanding it is an imprecise process, they must not swing-and-miss on future franchise-changing uber-talents like Juan Soto and Ronald Acuna, while signing lesser impact dudes and total busts instead. 

Mine was not an exhaustive study, but do you agree, and whom did I overlook? 

As for me?  I'm doing my part...I'm heading out to the International House of Pancakes.  I hear they're really stacked over there.