1/19/22

Reese Kaplan -- A Look at Relievers That the Mets Could Target


Monday morning we took a look at potential ways for the Mets to improve their starting rotation.  Contrarian that I am, putting megabucks into an injury risk like Clayton Kershaw or a downhill sliding Zack Greinke simply does not make sense.  

If the price was right or the term was short enough I'd certainly look long and hard at Carlos Rodon, but know going in with eyes wide open that he may not make more than two dozen starts in a good season.  I identified a couple of second tier possibilities who are more suited to the third through fifth starter opening.  

Now it's time to do a similar look at who can help in the bullpen.  After all, with the huge loss of the bargain of the year 2021 in Aaron Loup and the somewhat improved but not stellar Jeurys Familia, it seems the Mets have a lot of late innings to hand over to as yet unidentified people.  First let's see who might want Steve Cohen's free agency dollars.

The big fish available on the open market is the former Los Angeles Dodgers closer Kenley Jansen.  For folks who do not pay as much attention to the western division teams as they should, Jansen is an amazing reliever.  During his 12-year major league career he holds a winning record of 37-26 with a 2.37 ERA and 350 saves.  BaseballReference.com suggests a 2022 season for him with 4-4 record, a 3.21 ERA and just 21 saves.  

Now don't be swayed too much by that pessimistic outlook.  The Dodgers themselves were negotiating to sign him to continue as their closer before the lockout shut things down for contracts and personnel moves.  If anyone should be confident in his health and ability, it should be the team who has used him for a dozen years with the game on the line.  

The Yankees signed similar reliever Aroldis Chapman for between $16 and $17 million per year, whose career is almost identical.  Jansen earned slightly more averaging over $19 million per season for the last three years.


Love him or hate him, the fact is that the Mets already have a closer in Edwin Diaz who has saved half as many games in half as many seasons.  Consequently an investment in the very expensive Jansen while miscasting Diaz into a setup role doesn't seem like a shrewd use of the payroll dollars.  I would predict the Mets won't even make a serious effort here.


After Jansen it's a steep drop off the cliff for other available relief pitchers.  Setup man Ryan Tepera put together an above average season in 2021 between both Chicago teams, finishing 0-2 with a 2.79 ERA while saving a pair of games.  The right handed hurling Tepera is likely on par with someone like Seth Lugo.  Tepera is a couple of years older and only once crossed the $1 million threshold for salary and last year earned just $800K.  


Former Met Collin McHugh has had an interesting change of game during his major league career.  After functioning as a credible starting pitcher after reaching the Houston Astros, he went to the pen for the first time in 2018 and produced an eye-popping 1.99 ERA over 58 games with a WHIP under 1.000.  

He reverted a bit in 2019 and missed 2020 by opting out due to the COVID situation.  However, in 2021 he returned to the pen and turned in another outstanding year with a 6-1 record with a 1.55 ERA while appearing in 30 games as a reliever while starting 7 for the Tampa Bay Rays.  He earned just $1.8 million in pay for the Rays and will get a substantial bump as he enters his age 35 season.  

He'd likely be seeking something in the $4 million per season range for 2-3 years.  That kind of money for that kind of bullpen production seems fairly smart.  

Lefty setup reliever Andrew Chafin may be seeking to cash in on his best year ever in 2021 split between the Cubs and the A's.  He's not exactly been chopped liver for his entire career with a 3.30 ERA over 412 games.  His salary last season was $2.25 million and the Cubs bought him out of his 2022 contract option.  I can't see him getting much more than $4 million per season as he enters his age 33 year.  


Big right hander Richard Rodriguez has pitched to a career 3.28 ERA but the Atlanta Braves left him out of the postseason last year when he was giving up a lot of gopher balls in the latter stages of the 2021 season.  They non-tendered him despite him finishing with a 1-2 record and a 3.12 ERA.  He became an early free agent, though a bit older than you might expect given his relatively late start to the majors at age 27.  He will turn 32 this year and earned less than $3 million.  


Sidearmer Steve Cishek's control was underwhelming last year which saw his career ERA of just 2.85 absorb an uncharacteristic 3.42 season.  He's been rock steady for many years and turning 36 during the 2022 season he might be a good different look kind of pitcher for the Mets to consider.  

While he's earned as much as $6.5 million earlier in his career, in 2021 he brought home just $1 million.  He would not cost much and has a track record that covers 668 very good games.  

Finally, once again I put in a roll-the-dice chance on former Cardinals closer Trevor Rosenthal.  He's missed a lot of time to injuries the past few years, but the arm is still solid when healthy.  He finished 2020 across two teams with a nifty 1.90 ERA over 23 games for the Royals and Padres.  Unfortunately he was out of commission again for 2021, undergoing Thoracic Outlet Surgery in April and a hip labrum surgery in July.  He didn't pitch a single inning.  

He's the very definition of bargain-bin pitcher who probably would take a single year deal worth not much more than sophomore players get just to demonstrate that he is healthy enough to pitch again.  He'll turn age 32 during the 2022 season and is projected to be ready to throw on February 1st.  

11 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

Some still suggest going all out and going after Josh Hader. It would take a lot. He's lethal.

If that isn't Plan A, they should grab two or three of the guys you listed. At least two of them. As you note, losing Familia and Loup (a combined 15-4 on a 77 win team) is an awfully big hole to fill. It must be at least filled, and over-filling it is probably a good idea if the realistic and true goal is to win 95+ in 2022.

John From Albany said...

Great rundown of the available pitching free agents on Monday and today.

Reading these makes me think we should have made re-signing Loup and Stroman a higher priority.

John From Albany said...

Bottom line, we need better pipeline of pitchers in AAA. We are getting close but not if we trade a top prospect like JT Ginn like SNY is suggesting

Mack Ade said...

The Mets now have the operational money to steer away from trades.

We will never build a 🌎 class org. until we stop trading the kids.

bill metsiac said...

After losing Loup, we have a definite need to sign a lefty. We currently have zero of them in the pen, and Chafin and Hand (whom I am surprised to see that you didn't mention) seem to fit the bill. I'd sign both, preferring to not but all the eggs in one basket.

You mentioned "losing" Familia, which I'm not sure of. It's just writers' speculation at this point, but I've read in a few places that there's mutual interest in his return. He's no longer a go-to guy in late innings, but for 6th or 7th innings I'd classify him as a "why not?".

Of the RH FAs out there, McHugh is the one I'd target. Besides his recent stats, he's got experience in Queens, something I give "extra credit" to.

Joe P said...

I really have to agree with Mack on this one. They can't give up farm for trades this off season. I believe there is still plenty of relievers left on the market without overpaying.

John, I have a feeling they will resign Familia. As far as Stroman goes...I think he crazied himself out of New York. Watch what kind of crap he pulls in Chicago, especially if the team is no good. His act wears very thin, very fast.

I like McHugh...he would fit perfectly in the pen. They should also make a solid offer on Chafin. I would also try to sign Rosenthal to an incentive laden contract.

I think that would really solidify the bullpen without trading the farm away.

Reese Kaplan said...

Brad Hand has not been dominant for quite awhile. If he's inexpensive he does have enough quality in the past to suggest he could be helpful, but his last contract paid him $10.5 million. He's not worth nearly that much and would be better on a short term bargain contract with mutual options for additional years.

Gary Seagren said...

Explain this to me: we lose Loup who was outstanding last year for a 2 yr $17 mil contract and yet didn't we spend $10 mil on the injured Betances and get nothing. Mr. Superstar could kick in his lunch money and cover this a bad decision period.

Tom Brennan said...

Gary, maybe they felt Loup was a one season wonder? If not, count me as puzzled too, unless he was dying to go where he signed.

Remember1969 said...

A few comments here . . relievers are a tough bunch to gauge. In general, I would stay away from high dollar big name guys.

Use Craig Kimbrel as a guide. Many people argued that he would have been a better buy than trading for Diaz after the 2018 season. Well 2019 with the Cubs? 0-4 6.53 ERA. You say he didn't sign until late and didn't get a good spring? 2020: 0-1 5.28 ERA while pitching a combined 41 games in the combined 222 game season. Not the best bang for the buck. He finally pitched well in 2021 for the Cubs with a 0.49 ERA in 39 games before they shipped him off to the White Sox where he was back to a 5+ ERA in his last 24 games. Rumor has it they were pedaling him pretty hard before the strike.

No thanks on the big guys.

I do like McHugh. The guy can throw multiple innings as well. Familia would be a good re-sign for the right money. And one guy that I keep coming back to is lefty Chasen Shreve who turned in a 3.20 ERA over 57 games with Pittsburgh in 2021 after being a somewhat useful piece of the Mets pen in 2020.

I also believe that Drew Smith, although a righty, will be the 2022 Loup.

I saw a trade proposal that I think former GM Jim Bowden was thinking was a good deal for both teams: Mets get Josh Hader (2 years control), Brewers get Jeff McNeil, Dom Smith, and JT Ginn. HUH??? Just say No.

Remember1969 said...

Last comment: Loup will be OK, but he is not the second coming of Rivera. Probably not worth the 8.5M per.