While many folks are obsessing over how to improve the moribund offense that plagued the team in 2021, others agree that stabilizing the pitching is a greater priority. Yes, the Big Red Machine of the 1970s did prove that it's possible to win virtually on hitting alone, but it is really the only team to have accomplished the feat. Rather than seeing more games hurled by a slew of middle relievers bunched together, most fans would feel much better to see the Mets strengthen their rotation and their pen.
Towards that end the club's easiest way to improve would be to go after free agents as there is no need to sacrifice players already on the roster to bring in more weapons to retire opposing hitters. There are a number of both starters and relievers still available, so let's take another look at the leftovers who have not yet signed with other teams.
At the top of the list there are three solid choices whose past history would make anyone proud, but they all come with injury or age-related issues that suggest they won't be worth the money they will command. Many feel Carlos Rodon formerly of the White Sox is the best of the bunch. Last year's season was remarkable for him when he went 13-5 with a 2.37 ERA. Wow!
Look a little closer and the issues surface pretty quickly. Even in his most stellar season he only participated in 24 games as a starting pitcher. A normal workload is between 32 and 35 games. Consequently he missed over 25% of his starts. If this development was a one-time thing, then it would likely be forgivable. However, over his career Rodon's high water mark for starts in a season is just 28 back in 2016. He's regularly a decent but unhealthy pitcher who is going to look to cash in big time on his 2021 achievement, but his overall numbers for his career are decent but unspectacular at 42-38 with a 3.79 ERA. His quality is better than average but if he's on the shelf for anywhere from 8-24 starts per season, he's probably not worth a big investment. He's only earned a high salary of $3 million so although there will be a significant increase, how big is anyone's guess giving his bad history with staying healthy.
The next big name folks toss out there for consideration is three-time Cy Young Award winner Clayton Kershaw. The numbers he's posted for his career are phenomenal with a career 185-84 record and an ERA of just 2.49. He three times led the league in strikeouts and he barely allows more than a single runner per inning pitched. His control is spectacular. So what's the problem?
Like Rodon, he's had issues with his health year after year for quite some time. Right now his last full season of pitching without health problems dates back to the Mets World Series year of 2015. Since then he has not hit the 30-start mark in any season, though he continued to deliver at the highest possible level in however many starts he could make. He's had seven straight seasons earning more than $30 million and as a free agent now at age 33 he's going to be looking for a similar deal to finish out his career. 2021 was the worst of his career save for an abbreviated rookie campaign when he was only 20 years old. For the Dodgers he was 10-8 with a 3.55 ERA. By Kershaw standards that's pretty bad, but is it worth north of $30 million for a 20+ game starter for the latter phase of his baseball career?
Then there's former stellar pitcher Zack Greinke who has a Cy Young Award and a half dozen All Star appearances on his resume. Although he's never won 20 games, he used his excellent control and formerly rock bottom ERA to keep runners off base. His last outstanding season was 2019 which was split between the Diamondbacks and the Astros. He finished with an aggregated 18-5 record and a 2.93 ERA which was good enough for an All Star game, a Gold Glove and a Silver Slugger to boot.
Since then, however, he's skidded downhill, going 3-3 with a 4.03 ERA during the pandemic shortened season in 2020 and then 11-6 with a 4.16 ERA during his 29 starts in 2021. What stands out more than the backsliding in ERA was the steep decline in strikeouts. While he was never in the league-leading caliber of whiff artist, to go from a high of 10.5 per 9 IP down to just 6.3 does not look promising. He earned north of $30 million for each of the past six seasons and is looking for a new team as he prepares to turn age 38. Just say no.
So where does that leave Steve Cohen and his deep pockets? Well, if you consider that the Mets are already in possession of Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer at the top of the rotation who will be followed by usually credible Taijuan Walker and Carlos Carrasco, there is really only a need to look at starters of the 3-5 caliber to join the rotation. There are some quality arms out there in this sphere as well.
Many are high on Yusei Kikuchi formerly of the Mariners, but his career numbers are truly mediocre. Michael Pineda posts better stats, but he's had a problem staying healthy throughout his career. Tyler Anderson's name has come up but like the others nothing jumps out at you.
If you're looking to take a chance on someone who has had some health issues throughout his major league tenure, then the former San Francisco Giant Johnny Cueto may be worth consideration. He was bought out of his contract for a $5 million payment, so figure he's going to take something of a discount going into the 2022 season. His career record is 135-97 with a pair of All Star appearances. His control is pretty good and although not generally known as a strikeout specialist, he did once lead the league for the Cincinnati Reds during his 20 win season back in 2014. He did earn $21 million last year but I'm thinking he's more in the $16 million range (plus the $5 million he gets from the Giants). Turning 36 this year he's not likely to command at most a two-year contract. Think of him like Rich Hill (already gone to Boston).
Foreign import Kwang Hyun Kim might also be worth some serious consideration. He spent two seasons with the Cardinals and accumulated a record of 10-7 with a 2.97 ERA over 28 combined starts for the redbirds. His last salary was just $4 million and he's not eligible to be a free agent until 2026. That's the kind of player around whom you might want to build a bit for the future as he will only be 33 this coming year. Did I mention he's a lefty?
There are a plethora of other pitchers whose names might have meant something at one time but whose back of the baseball card is best used to make motorcycle noises in the spokes of a kid's bicycle. Matt Harvey would be an example. There's no reason to go down this route when you have the mighty David Peterson, Tylor Megill and others as in-house mediocre options already who cost even less. I can't speculate on trades as we don't know who's available nor the asking price.
9 comments:
Reading that, you wonder why the Mets were so hot to sign Scherzer anymore?
Also reading that, it is a bit puzzling, looking just at baseball stats, that Stroman was not kept, not to mention Syndergaard. Had to be some other reasons for those two.
Ginn and Allan could both be here by mid 2023, so I hope they are not traded in a reach for current, expensive, strong MLB pitching talent..
Thor and Stro simply did not want to be a Met anymore.
Takes two to tango.
They chose to sit this one out.
Stroman was a better pitcher than I'd expected when we obtained him. Syndergaard missed an awful lot of time due to injuries during his Mets career. Given his long layoff he's like to resume being a number 2 level starter but there's also the possibility he will have to change his motion and reinjure himself. I was sorry to see him go, but uniforms change and you have to change with them.
Grienke would be an interesting get. Reminds me of Hershhizer. He did a nice job with the Mets.
Hey Reese...well thought out article. You really summed up the entire market...thank you.
As far as Stroman goes...he was a goner as soon as he started spouting those ridiculous comments about the Mets not being interested and bringing up the race card. As good of a year as he had last year he is just too high maintenance.
Thor was just a money grab. He practically begged us to extend him the qualifying offer. Then what does he do...he jumps at the first offer without showing any loyalty to the Mets. Good riddance....he's a 500. pitcher who will only start 20+ games...we dodged a bullet on him.
Like Mack said...they didn't want to be here. Don't let the door hit you in the A** on the way out.
Thank you, Joe P. I have a tendency to dwell on recent trends and cumulative stats. WHIP is one of the most important ones to me -- more than strikeouts. ERA is another critical barometer. I don't put much stock in Wins because your team may not score enough for you to obtain the victory. Just look at deGrom for a good example.
To be honest, I have no problem bringing in a pitcher good for 20-25 starts with MeGill and Peterson filling in the gaos.
I could see bringing in some of the FAs on your list, butnone for more than a 2-year guarantee. Vesting options based on starts, IP, etc would work, though.
While I generally prefer FAs, given the lack of top-quality ones out there I'd look to the trade market first. Look for quality arms with high salaries and few remaining contract years.
There are always bottom - feeder teams looking to cut payroll, teams that would value players like Smith, Davis and McNeil plus prospects not in our Top 5 or 6.
The Mets should just sign Collin McHugh and see which one from Peterson, Megill or McHugh becomes the 5th starter with the others going to the BP.
The Mets already missed the somewhat cheap but productive starters that were available to others teams. Rich Hill would have made sense on a one year deal. But he is already gone as are Wacha, Quintana, Paxton, etc.
Remember, is a 4th or 5th starter they are looking for. Peterson, Megill pitched very decently before they faltered. Maybe they just need more seasoning. Either way, McHugh needs to be signed.
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