Stephen Guilbert: - RE: Setting The 2014 Table

I would like to add on to Mack's thoughts from an earlier post titled, "Setting The 2014 Table" in which, upon analyzing the moves and non-moves of the Mets over the past 12 months, he arrives at the conclusion that a clearly formidable team could arrive in Flushing in 2014. Not only arrive and compete in that year, but also do so for sustained runs each year with young, cheap, extraordinary talent on the mound, at the plate, and in the field.

To begin, I want Mets fans to realize how many pieces we already have in place. Without these, the future is much more bleak and it is the presence of these few already-in-place cornerstones that is so pivotal to the 2014 (and onward) Mets.

Let's start these "New Mets" off with our shortstop. Ruben Tejada has all of the makings of a glove-first #8 hitter who gets on base, make good contact, and will make 10 "Web Gems" a year. His glove alone could be worth 1-2 wins above replacement and I have said this before--he is easily a shortstop on a championship caliber team. 8th in the lineup? Probably. But a good major league shortstop and one I would happily have as our shortstop of this future contender in 2014.

Along with Ruben on the left side will be David Wright. Wright has made it clear that this is his team. He wants to play in Flushing and the Mets showed him a vote of confidence by excluding his name from the trade talks at the Winter Meetings. The new dimensions should help David and if my instinct from my, albeit limited, study of sports psychology is correct, he is one of those players whose glove will improve as his bat does.

Lucas Duda will hit 30 home runs while occupying (treacherously) right field. Jon Niese could easily be a 15-game winner as soon as 2012 and will be a much-needed lefty in a rotation that, come 2014 will likely all be righties. Ike Davis will win multiple gold gloves at first and add 20-30 home runs while getting on base at a good clip. Lastly, I think and hope R.A. Dickey will still be pitching in the Mets rotation by 2014. He has done nothing but perform for the Mets in his time in Flushing and is one of the true good guys in the game. Knuckleballers can pitch deep into their 40s and I hope the Mets commit to R.A. until he retires and let him serve as a mentor to some of the young arms with whom he will share the mound. I do not think they'd mind a 4+WAR pitcher either, come the end of the day.

Tejada, Wright, Duda, Niese, Davis, Dickey. There is the core. Now here comes the fun part...let's add on to those six with players in the system who, by 2014, could be impact players: LF- Puello and CF- Nimmo (might not quite be ready but could be if he moves quickly) join Duda in the outfield. 2B Reese Havens joins Tejada, Wright, Davis in the infield. 2B Jordany Valdespin, SS Philip Evans and SS Danny Muno challenge Havens and Tejada for their positions or fill them if injury, inefficiency, or trades complicate the depth chart. OF Matt den Dekker and OF Kirk Nieuwenhuis become the best #4 and #5 outfielders in the game.

Then come the guns. We've all heard about "Generation 2K" so I won't delve too far into that well-covered portion of Mets Minor League Baseball but I will say this: With Niese and Dickey already in the rotation, it gives one of these four the possibility of a move to the bullpen if need be. Most think it will be Mejia but I have more money on Familia. A 2014 NYM rotation could look like: Wheeler, Mejia, Harvey, Niese, Dickey with Familia as our lock-down, young, exciting closer.

Now, getting to the part of the post that deals with this off season in particular, as it stands right now, the Mets will get the 12th, 34th, 52nd, and 55th picks in the first two rounds of the 2012 amateur draft--a draft I have researched at length and find to be inferior to 2011's in top-level talent but deeper--especially from the 2nd to 3rd rounds. In other words, I believe there will still be five-star talent available by the Mets fourth pick at 55 (which could be a bit later, depending on the rest of the off-season signings).

For fun, I looked at Mack's Mock Draft 6.0 and took his projected 12th, 34th, 52, and 55th picks and found: LHP Max Fried, OF Lewis Brinson, SS/2b Steve Nyisztor and RHP Ryan McNeil. Add those four to the Urbinas, Tapias, Akeels, Martes, Wilmers, Mateos, etc. of the lower farm system and you not only have a strong major league club, but one that has a stacked farm system that can only use said system to feed the major league club, enhance it via trade (Catcher, anyone?), and support it when players from the parent team get hurt.

As Mets fans, we are used to disappointment and I hate to tell you this but it is the truth--the Mets will not contend in 2012. Barring a miracle, they will not content in 2013. But, as Mack said earlier in the week, this is a team with a strong foundation that is only getting better. Two years from now while the Phillies and Marlins are cash-strapped and unable to steer a sinking ship, the Mets and Nationals will be competing for top free agents to complement two of the NL's strongest and most exciting young teams.

--Stephen