2012 Draft- Players #11-15

I have written more on these five players because many of these names will be on the board by the first pick the Mets have at #12. The Mets scouting team are looking long and hard at all of these players and there is some supreme talent here, including my favorite player in the 2012 draft as it stands right now.

#11- 3B Trey Williams – Valencia High School (CA)

Why ranked #11: Potential for all five tools to grade out to average or better but bat is the ticket here. Immense, prestigious power for a high schooler and scouts rave about his strength, bat speed, and hands for such a young player. Realistically, while the speed and defense are sound, they will not win awards in the bigs. The bat will, though.

Why the Mets would draft him: Depending on who is still on the board, passing on Williams would be tough. Even with a bad spring, Williams goes in the first round and my gut says he is long gone by #12. If he happens to be there, the Mets, playing the “best available” card, would jump at the chance to grab Williams, who ideally offers 30 home runs, some speed, good instincts, and sound defense from the hot corner. With incumbent third baseman David Wright’s future with the Mets seemingly unknown to everyone—including the guys making the decisions—Trey Williams might have to fill mighty big shoes within a few years.

Tools: All five tools are there. Played shortstop in 2011 but will be moving back to his natural position at third this spring. Has the ability to stay at third long term and offers solid defense. Will not steal a ton of bases but is a good runner. Plus-plus power, plus-plus bat.

Ceiling: All-star, middle-of-the-order 3B. .

Trivia: According to an article by The Daily News, Trey was intentionally walked while the bases were loaded as a sophomore in a season in which he hit 10 home runs in 98 at bats and slugged .796.

Mack - The Mets need a catcher that can throw and a defensive centerfielder that has pop. Williams work here.

#12- RHSP Michael Wacha – Texas A&M Aggies

Why ranked #12: Scouts like Wacha’s size and projectibility. Control is a huge asset and has become a bit of a calling card for the lanky righty. Teams looking for a mid-rotation workhorse need look no further. In the mocks I have looked at thus far, Bleacher Report is by far the most aggressive with Wacha, predicting the Twins will land him at #2. I think this is far too high but a team looking for a starter who will get to the majors quickly and fit nicely in the middle or back of a rotation fits the billing so it might not be crazy to see Wacha disappear early.

Why the Mets would draft him: I am not convinced they would. The Minaya and co. strategy of old just might—tall, projectible college righty. Not Alderson, DePodesta and crew. With one of McCullers, Fried, Duane Underwood, Brian Johnson, Matt Smoral, Taylore Cherry etc. etc. sure to be available, they will go for a pitcher with a higher upside, if they do decide to pick a pitcher. One thing that concerns me about Wacha comes from reports that suggest only one of his pitches is or projects to plus (changeup). His fastball does not feature much movement and he does not throw any breaking pitch with consistency or regularity. College numbers with TAMU are strong but he gives up a lot of hits (albeit very few homers…just 3 in 129 innings last year). Wacha fits the profile of a #3/#4 with annual 200 innings but pedestrian peripherals. Attractive to a lot of teams but given the Mets needs, I see them looking elsewhere.

Throws: 4-seam fastball (91-95, not much movement). Outstanding changeup. No breaking pitches thrown with regularity.

Ceiling: #3 in a strong rotation who pitches deep into ball games, pitches to contact thus yielding a lot of hits but few walks or homers.

Trivia: One of the few projected first round college players who went undrafted out of high school.

 

#13- LHSP Max Fried – Harvard-Westlake High School (CA)

Why ranked #13: One of the best lefties available in the draft. Throws an excellent curveball with a low-90s fastball and a developing change to complement it. True ace potential with impressive poise, control, and steady improvement as a high schooler. Not much not to like and steady improvement throughout high school suggests the best is still to come. Athletic, intelligent, and a hard-working player who has the talent to head a rotation one day.

Why the Mets would draft him: This is my guy in the 2012 draft. I see Fried as the next elite southpaw to lead a Mets rotation years down the road. Given what Fried already throws as a 17-year-old high schooler, he reminds me quite a bit of current Met starting pitcher Jon Niese (low 90s four-seamer, wipe-out curve, great high school career, steadily improving command). If Fried fills out his 6’4”, 170 lb. frame and starts seeing 95, 96 on the gun, wait for the Kershaw comparisons to start. If he continues to improve his control, it’s Cliff Lee. You get the idea. Although teammate Lucas Giolito will get more headlines and go higher in the draft (yes, they pitch for the same high school team. No, that is not fair to the rest of California), I believe Fried has a chance to become the better prospect. We saw this last year with Cole/Bauer and, fittingly, both Giolito and Fried are committed to UCLA to play Bruin baseball this fall. Furthermore, Fried has played three years of high school basketball, does well in school, and (according to MLB Draft Guide) modeled his curveball off of Sandy Koufax when Fried was 12 years old. This is a guy I want in our system. I really hope he is still on the board by the time the Mets get to pick.

Throws: Four-seam fastball (low 90s, touches 94), wipeout, dominant curve (low 70s) that projects to plus/plus-plus. Change that show promise as well. Control was an issue for Fried early in his high school career but it has steadily improved over the three years: WHIP 2009-2011 = 1.88, 1.34, 1.19, respectively.

 

Ceiling: Ace southpaw who makes quite a few All-Star teams and gets serious Cy Young consideration along the way.

Trivia: Fried turned 18 on Wednesday. Happy birthday, Max.

Mack - Max would easily be a top 5 pick if Giolito wasn't his teammate.

#14- RHP Walker Weickel- Olympia High School (FLA)

Why ranked #14: Projectable prep righty from Florida who has fared well against some of the best prep competition in the country. Throws in the low-90s with two developing off-speed pitches (curve, change) that are inconsistent but show a lot of promise. Scouts love his size (6’6’, 205) and although I am far less concerned with size than most, it does suggest he could add a couple ticks to that fastball as he matures. If the four-seamer starts hitting 95 and upwards and the breaking ball and the changeup start resulting in more missed bats, watch out for this kid.

Why the Mets would draft him: I do not see the Mets taking the chance on him with their first pick and I do not believe he will be around by the Mets’ second pick in the supplemental round. Some team will take the chance on Weickel late in the first round citing his size, projectability, and success against top Florida prep talent. Alderson and co., if last year were any indication, seem far less concerned about the competition a player has faced (cf. Nimmo) and more about raw talent and ceiling. That being said, look for the Mets to go elsewhere when the #12 pick is on the clock and Weickel is still on the board. Plenty of talent here, but not the direction the Mets are going to go.

Throws: Four-seam fastball (low 90s, touches 94), low-70s curve and a low-80s change that both show plus potential.

Ceiling: All depends on if the fastball and control improve and if those two secondary pitches becomes true plus offerings. Three plus pitches means #2, maybe even a potential ace on some clubs. I like what I have seen of the curve and his delivery has some nice deception to it. This is a tough call and a huge range of outcomes for this kid.

Trivia: Walker has a commitment to attend Miami University in the fall.

#15- 1B/LHP Brian Johnson – University of Florida Gators

Why ranked #15: One of the best two-way players in the draft. National league teams looking for a mid-rotation lefty who can mash the ball in the #9 spot will look long and hard at Johnson who doubles as a starter and first baseman for the Gators. Both scouts and Johnson himself believe his future is on the mound and projections suggest he could be a nice mid-rotation lefty with the potential for a bit more with extra focus on his pitching after college.

Why the Mets would draft him: Mets need a lefty. And while Johnson does not have the same ace-ceiling as some of the other prospects currently in the Mets system (or in the first round of the 2012 draft for that matter), he could be a very valuable and dependable lefty in the middle of a rotation that breaks up the righty attack of Wheeler, Harvey, Mejia, Familia, etc. He would get to the bigs quickly and could very well add 5-10 HRs and hit .280 as the best hitting pitcher in baseball for years. Unless the Mets bench improves over the next couple seasons, Johnson would also immediately become our best pinch-hitting option and would be used often in that role. I do not believe the Mets will look here at #12 but if they do, I think they will be happy with what they get. Often times two-way players vastly improve in the minor leagues after dropping one skill and focusing full-time on the other. You could see that with Johnson here and that projected mid-rotation starter could turn into much more, giving Johnson a higher ceiling than most college players. If some of my draft favorites (Fried, Gausman, Nick and Trey Williams, Zunino) are off the board already, Brian Johnson could be a great pick and a possible steal at #12.

Throws: Low-90s fastball and a curve (both plus offerings already).

Ceiling: #2 southpaw and a frightening hitting pitcher.

Trivia: An errant throw from catcher and consensus first-rounder Mike Zunino sidelined Johnson for the remainder of the Gators’ season last year.