1/13/12

Stephen Guilbert - 2012 Draft- Players 5-10

Last week I looked at the top four players of the 2012 draft (as compiled from expert mocks). Here are players 5-10. My quick thought on these six players are that one of them, if not more, will be available by the first pick the Mets have. That is a great sign because there is a ton of talent here.

#5- RHP Lance McCullers Jr- Tampa Jesuit HS (Florida)

Why ranked #5: Huge fastball and three pitches that project to above average. Great, young, live arm, has scouts raving about his pedigree for a young pitcher. Some control problems and certain scouts think he projects best as a late-inning reliever.

Why the Mets would draft him: If McCullers remains a starter, he would only add to and headline the list of impressive starters in the low minors. McCullers would lead Urbina, Tapia, Morris, Fulmer, and Mazzoni as the second "Generation 2K". Even if Lance converts to a reliever down the road, a kid who already throws in the high-90s with three quality pitches will make a successful major leaguer. There is some risk here, but the ceiling of an ace or a blue-chip reliever makes him an attractive prospect to a lot of teams drafting in the first half of the first round—including the Mets.

Throws: 4-seam fastball (94-97, multiple reports of him touching 100), power curve, change.

Ceiling: Frontline starter/dominant closer.

Trivia: McCullers Jr. is currently committed to the University of Florida.


Mack:  Lance has fallen on the mock lists, for no apparant reasons.  He actually started out last July as the top pick in the first few posted. I'd gladly take him.

#6- C Mike Zunino- University of Florida

Why ranked #6: Best catcher in the draft. Strong skills on both sides of the ball. Outstanding defensive skills with a quick release, a strong arm, smooth hands and quick feet, Calls a good game. Hitting skills suggest power will be part of his game and although he will strike out, he also gets on base. There is a reason some think he might go #1 or #2 and with a strong spring that might look more and more likely. All-around catchers like this do not come around too often and the rest of the catching class is less than spectacular.

Why the Mets would draft him: I think every Mets fan would love to see Zunino available by the #12 pick. He would immediately become the “catcher of the future” and would be on the fast track to the big leagues. He would be a much-needed solution at the catching position and ideally be catching our young arms in their ascent through the minor leagues. Every team wants a blue-chip catcher and Zunino already looks the part.

Tools: Good pull power that projects to translate to major-league power. Average will not be eye-popping but not unsightly either. Will strike out and walk a lot. True value comes from defense: Quick hands and feet, strong arm, calls a good game.

Ceiling: All-star, Gold Glove-winning catcher.

Trivia: According to MLB Draft Guide, Zunino’s father (a scout for the Reds) bought his son catching gear as a Christmas present. Mike was 6 years old at the time.


Mack:  Late word out of Florida is the team plans on resting Mike and letting incoming HS phenom  Taylor Gushue get sme time behind the plate..

#7- RHSP Kevin Gausman- LSU

Why ranked #7: Polish, talent, and a still improving starting pitcher who should remain a starter in the bigs.

Why the Mets would draft him: If Gausman continues to develop his secondary pitches, he could be a top of the rotation starter. The concern about drafting Gausman out of high school a couple years ago was his shaky secondary offerings. At LSU he has refined these and still seems to be improving them. His control is already fantastic and his fastball is his best pitch—already major-league average if not better. Gausman would be another solid righty who would make the Mets minor league followers change “The Big Four” to “The Big Five”.

Throws: A good, lively 4-seam fastball in the mid 90s with a bit extra when needed. Curve and change are works in progress but rapidly improving.

Ceiling: I see Gausman as a mid-rotation starter with good control and the ability to eat a lot of innings which would be a valuable asset to even the best MLB rotations. However, if the curve can become an out pitch and the change progresses, he could be much more and work his way into the front of a rotation before long.

Trivia: Gausman was last drafted in 2010 out of high school by the Los Angeles Dodgers in the 6th round.


Mack - I simply love this guy and, in any other year, he could easily have been the first pitcher drafted.

#8- OF Nick Williams- Galveston Ball High School (Texas)

Why ranked #8: I don’t buy into the Griffey comparisons to this kid but he has certainly made a name for himself with impressive power displays in amateur events. The word “raw” gets used a lot with Williams because there are still holes in his game. However, the athleticism and left-handed power is real and he could be the best player in the draft by the end of the day. The risk will cause Williams to fall well past #8 to late in the first round. My guess is the Rays take the chance on him and will be handsomely rewarded for it.

Why the Mets would draft him: I like Nick Williams a lot and despite the risk, I still find him one of the best and most intriguing prospects in this draft. He has the potential for all five tools to be above average if not well above average and the athleticism he has is something you cannot teach. Incredible power displays for a young player but the question is in his development from this point forward. I would love Sandy to take a risk on another toolsy but risky outfielder because Williams could easily be the steal of this draft no matter where he is taken.

Ceiling: True 5-tool, All-Star outfielder on a championship club.


Tools: Fantastic power, strong speed both in the field and on the bases, good contact (and improving) ability and is good with the glove. True 5-tooler here.

Trivia: According to DiamondProspects, after Williams’ sophomore season in high school, he hit four home runs in a single game at the WWBA 16-and-under tourney. All of them were reportedly hit off of off-speed pitches.


Mack - I expect Williams to still be around and it will be interesting to see if the Mets use their first pick for another outfielder (Nimmo).

#9- SS Gavin Cecchini- Barbe High School (Louisiana)

Why ranked #9: Personally I have Cecchini much further down my draft list but as a multi-tool shortstop with the defensive skills to stay at that position and produce on offense, I understand the appeal. Not many shortstops in at the top of this draft project to stay at short but Cecchini is one of them.

Why the Mets would draft him: I am not convinced they would. Not at #12 at least and he will likely be gone before the supplemental round begins. Despite solid speed and all-around skills, I think the Mets will have more options at the #12 spot in the first round. They already have a similar player in Philip Evans in the system already but if they were to draft Cecchini, there is a lot to like. At worst he’s a defensive-minded utility player who will play some full seasons and produce solid numbers. Good franchise-type player who plays the game right. A lot to like here I just think the Mets will pass if he is available.

Ceiling: Multi-dimensional shortstop who will not make many headlines but will play strong baseball at a premium position.


Tools: Strong runner with smooth actions at short that should allow him to stay there. Some pop but my guy says he will be more of a doubles and average hitter than a home run threat.

Trivia: According to MLB Draft Guide, Gavin is committed to attend and play baseball at Ole Miss


Mack -  I have him as a first round pick, but I have Deven Merrero and Carlos Correa going before him. Another Phillip Evans..

#10- 1B/OF Victor Roache- Georgia Southern

Why ranked #10: Power. Elite power. Jaw-dropping power. Get this: Even after the NCAA changed the bats this past spring (which should have made hitting home runs harder), Victor mashed 30 home runs in 62 games. He led the NCAA in home runs but it was his improvement in contact that got scouts even more curious. Roache hit .326 last season with Georgia Southern and followed that up with a .316 in the Cape Cod League. The defense projects to average at best but he has a shot to stay in the outfield and his arm is a potential plus tool.

Why the Mets would draft him: Mack compared his power to Ryan Howard’s and for good reason. Roache uses his lower half to generate enormous power to all fields. His power as a tool is as strong a single tool as any other player’s in the draft right now and while he is a below-average runner and only average defender, he could stick in the outfield and become a force to be reckoned with in the middle of the Mets lineup. Roache made great strides in his pitch selection and average last season making him a very attractive prospect. If he falls to the Mets at #12 I would be thrilled to have him. While Duda and Roache in the same outfield might be horrific defensively, the two could combine with Ike Davis for 100 home runs annually.

Tools: Huge power. Strong, accurate arm. Slow running but there are far worse manning outfields in the majors right now. Will not be a base stealing threat.
Ceiling: Middle-order 30 (40 isn’t a stretch) HR power threat manning right field.

Trivia: According to his Georgia Southern player profile, Victor made the Dean’s List in 2010 as a freshman while concentrating on Sports Management as his major.


Mack - This is "the bat" in the draft. I plan on attending three of his games this season so I'll have more on him soon. Scouts have been critical of the lack of competition his team plays, but he domnated the Cape Cod League this off-season as well. A beast learning the OF.

7 comments:

Christopher Soto said...

Zunino is a senior correct? IMO I would think that due to the new rules with spending limits that teams may start drafting Top College Seniors before Top High Schoolers as a way to save some money and protect themselves from non commits. With only a limited amount of money to throw around High Schoolers may not get enough to "pursuade" them from their college commitments. Based of my thinking I would think that Zunino now gets drafted in the Top 5 or even 3.

However is word from UF is true then we might get lucky if inconsistent playing time at his natural position hurts his stat line and drops him in the draft. We need a future catcher like him in our system so badly right now.

Mack Ade said...

Speaking of catchers on this team.

The backup is another first rounder and could have been a top 10 pick if he kept catching - Austin Maddox - only caught one game last season - plaed 1B-3B

Stephen Guilbert said...

Zunino's a junior I believe. And Maddox is as intriuging as any other player in the draft and i'm curious who's going to take him/if he'll catch as a pro. Chris- I think Zunino is gone by Florida's pick at the latest. Even if most of the top 10 pass on him, i see no way that miami does..they need a catcher.

Mack Ade said...

If...

the Mets draft by position need...

my money for 12th pick is...

C Stryker Trahan

Stephen Guilbert said...

i would be MORE than fine with that. I like Trahan a lot.

David Groveman said...

The Wilpons are actually looking to sell the Met draft picks to investors

Michael S. said...

I think Roache would be the best bet here. Zunino likely won't fall to the Mets and while Trahan is interesting, as a catcher of the future, he probably won't see action until 2016.