5/14/13

Mack Ade – Morning Report – 5-14-13




The Mets have had 30 different batting orders in the last 34 games (14-20).
Well, we’ve passed Mother’s Day, so it’s time to start thinking about the All-Star break and what this team is going to do. Will they be a buyer (ha ha ha ha…)? Will they sell Shaun Marcum for top dollar (ha ha ha ha…)? Will Jordany Valdespin show up for the next non-mandatory practice (ha ha ha ha…)?

Me? Major sell off time:

                John Buck – He’s not hitting at the pace he did earlier (.228), but there still are those 10-HRs and the way he handles the pitches. Cold bats get hot again and some team is going to want this experience in their lineup for the stretch run. Forget what Sandy Alderson said earler. Buck’s a gonner for either an outfield of LHP AA/AAA prospect.

                Frank Francisco – the Mets are making sure they take their sweet time here with Frankie Frank. They want him at 110% when he finally enters the arena and five or six excellent outings in a row should get them another decent AA/AAA prospect.

                Shaun Marcum – This simply hasn’t worked out. I don’t think his immediate family would trade for him mid-season. It will take a miracle to find a team that is willing to part with anything more than a bad contract in return. Seller-buyer beware.

                Jordany Valdespin – it’s obvious that the Mets have no long term plans for him, so why not ship him out to a Latin based team? Miami would be the perfect fit for his culture and his personality. Definitely would get you at least one top AA/AAA prospect.

                Jon Niese – here’s the first of two tough ones. Yes, you would be trading your one left-handed pitcher, but, if you pull off the above deals right, you’ll get back at least one lefty you can insert in the 2014 lineup. Forget his soaring ERA. Niese can bring home TWO top prospects or one already every day major league outfielder.

                Ike Davis – Ike still has a big trade value regardless of his horrible career so far. I’d like to think he could bring in two great players like Niese, but there may only be one here. I would then move Lucas  Duda back to his natural position and just throw the outfield open to everyone for the rest of the 2013 season.
You lose six players, but only five of the current roster. You gain six back, all young new-blood players that fit in with young pitching staff.

I’m just saying…


Some good news. The Mets threw up three pitching prospects last night (Luis Cessa at Savannah, Hansel Robles in St. Lucie, and Rafael Montero in Binghamton) and all three had wonderful outings. We'll never get out of this mess unless five of these guys stay healthy and dominate at the same time. Montero has now pitched eight games at AA and 10 is usually the minimal amount one pitches before being considered for a promotion. He would need to Vegas after the all-star break (and excel there) for any chance of making the 2014 Mets rotation. My guess...  June 2014..


Anthony Rizzo agreed to a contract extension worth $41 million that will keep him with the Chicago Cubs through 2019, according to major-league sources.

This is what 'we were supposed to do with Ike Davis. For now, there is no one  on the team that warrants an extended contract like this. Rizzo has been guaranteed $41 million through 2020, less than what Ryan Howard will make between now and the end of 2014


Frank Francisco is scheduled to be examined by doctors this week after his elbow “didn’t feel very good” following a recent outing.

Well, so much for what I just wrote. Let's wait and see the extent of this one, but there never is any good news about this guy.


35% of the Mets payroll is on the DL

                There’s a big reason this team is hurting right now. Remember, the Mets started out with no depth, and, throw this equation in, and you simply are not going to survive in this environment.


Jeurys Familia was placed on the disabled list with right biceps tendinitis.

Boy, tendinitis is going around.  Pitchers get hurt. Familia and Mejia. Mejia and Familia. How many times did we write about these two guys in the same paragraph, no less the same story. These were going to be the original Matt Harvey and Zack Wheeler. I don’t know who said it first, but Toby Hyde always reminds me… pitchers get hurt.  Never count on any of these guys and always have twice more than you need in your system.


The Mets have signed OF Rick Ankiel.

                I have no problem with this. For all I care, the Pillsbury Dough Boy can play in the outfield this year. Pitch him every five day too.


 Greg Burke was called up from Triple-A Las Vegas.

This is the best we have in the system right now, folks.

11 comments:

Anonymous said...

I would also put in Murphy and Parnell in trade now category if u can get some good prospects. I would package murph and buck to dodgers for there Cuban centerfielder and the lefty pitching prospect they have. I think it's doable? What do u think Mack?

Charles said...

I would definately put Murphy on the table...He's come a long way and has proved to be an adequate second baseman. If he can raise hit batting average up towards .300 again and come close to 20 doubles by the break, I'd definately pull the trigger on a deal. I think he could definately get then a legit prospect.

My three players that I think the Nets should try to move:

1)Murphy: Flores can step in and get his feet wet. He brings more power and equal hitting ability at a younger age. Defense would be a wash, probably even a bit of a decline compared to Murphy, but Flores gives the Mets another 5 million to spend next off season and you'd add another top prospect to the system because Murphy has value as a player and is under team control for a few more years.

2)Buck: Let's face it, he's cooled off, but is still a threat and a leader behind the plate. I think it's a safe bet to say he'll have 15 homers by the break and close to 50 rbi's. Hes a half year rental so I'm not looking for a huge prospect, but definately a good one in a Cory Mazzoni type of way. If they'll take a raw player, someone playing at a low level, you could possibly receive a better prospect. Someone comparable to a Nimmo or Fulmer.

3)Davis: this guy can't seem to understand how the opposing team is attacking him. He certainly can't differentiate between a breaking ball or a fastball, and it shows by his constant swing and misses on the outside ball in the dirt. Breaking ball, high fastball, breaking ball, breaking ball....that's the textbook sequence in unlocking the Ike Davis patented four pitch strikeout. He's perfected it, or should I say, the opposing pitchers have perfected it. Luckily, he's got power and a track record. He could very well turn it around and have 15 homers by the deadline; maybe more. He plays excellent defense and on a better team, protection in the lineup might do him wonders. Of course, he needs to learn how to not swing at EVERY bad pitch. If he can turn it around, Ike has value. He's also controlled for another couple of years a d could fetch a good package. I look to trade him because I'm not willing to take a chance with him going into next season if I'm serious about competing. Duda, who the front office loves for his approach and power, easily slides over to first and profiles their much better then in LF. I'm satisfied with Duda as my first baseman in 2014 if I'm able to add at least one great prospect, hopefully an outfielder, by trading Ike Davis.

Other than Niese, I don't see any real options as trade bait when it comes to the pitching staff. Sandy has done horribly with limited resources when putting together a bullpen and I'm not willing to trade my best arm, which is Parnell. Parnell must remain on the team because the chances of building a successful bullpen without him are stacked heavily against Alderson.

Likewise, I'm not willing to trade Niese either. His value has decreased with his current pitching and the Mets simply don't have enough options in 2014 to complete without him. If I'm going to trade Niese, I'll only do it if his value has peaked, maximizing the return and lessening the significant blow the rotation will face without him. Any deal must be equal to or greater then the RA deal and right now, that's not going to happen.

This current team is horrible, just as predicted by basically everyone. 2014 should see much improvement. The payroll won't rise, but due to the amount coming off the books at the end of this year, just reinvesting that money back into the payroll should bring this team much success. That, coupled with the emergence if Wheeler and Montero, plus some much needed bullpen help from inside and outside the organization, should bring this team to the start of a sustained and competitive exsistance that hasn't been seen in many years.

Reese Kaplan said...

Well, if you trade Murphy you're assuming one of Turner, Valdespin or Flores can take over for him. Since Turner gets exposed with regular playing time, Valdespin never gets regular playing time, that leaves Flores who is hitting a modest .273 in the thin air of Las Vegas.

I can see dangling Davis in a trade but selling low usually doesn't work out. You can do the same with Duda, but ditto.

Trading Niese is a gutsy move but one that should be considered if not done. A young lefty under a modest contract could net a nice return, but it's not as if the Mets are rife with starting pitching. After Harvey (and eventually Wheeler) you have what exactly -- McHugh? Hefner? Gee? Marcum? The rest of the cavalry is AA and lower.

Mack Ade said...

johnny downtown:

I forgot about Murphy - I would definitely move him.

I'm a Parnell convert - I'd keep him

Mack Ade said...

Reese:

You trade Niese and make sure one of the players is a LHSP at least at the AA level

You just fill in this year with guys like McHugh, Schwinden, etc.

You move up Mazzoni and Montero to AAA

You bring up Wheeler

and so on and so on...

Michael S. said...

Mack - what level of prospect do you think Niese could return in terms of talent?

Do you think a trade to Detroit for Smyly and Castellanos would be fair to both teams?

Could the Mets chase a LHP as highly regarded as Danny Hultzen?

Michael S. said...

At this point there's a good chance Parnell is worth more to the Mets as their closer than he is as trade bait. He's really come a long way and there isn't anyone coming up who can fill his shoes.

Michael S. said...

I'm not worried who replaces Murphy for the rest of the season, it can be addressed later. I think selling him makes sense. Teams have been attempting to acquire him for a couple of years now, moving him at the deadline could yield surprisingly solid return.

Mack Ade said...

Michael -

IMO...

forget Neise's current ERA... he is young, a lefty, and cheap... he can get you two top prospects... either of your two proposed trades could easily happen

I revise my thoughts on Parnell. He, Wright, and Harvey are the only three current big league players I would protect at trade time. I would send a robo-call out to all the teams that the other 22 players are up for grabs and wait for the phone to ring.

Someone would trade something decent for Murphy... probably a top AA prospect... he can help during a pennant race

and someone would want to try and 'fix' Davis.

Look, you get a trade for, let's say, Michael Choice, and you draft Austin Wilson... you add Nimmo to this and you have your future outfield. Yes, it will take a couple of more years, but it is done.

If no one wants Duda, you can put him back at 1B which is where he will play better and, thus, produce better at the plate.

And... EVERY trade talk should end with the statement "but that's not all... order now and we'll throw in Jordany Valdespin"

Michael S. said...

As I watched Niese implode the last few times out, all I could think was that there has to be something wrong with him. Now we get this report about a sore neck and it makes some sense. If he gets himself healed I think we'll see the 2012 Niese...that Niese is very valuable especially given his contract. He has slowly matured and improved to be the pitcher he was last year, it wasn't a fluke. That's why I agree with you about his trade value.

I also agree about Davis...the 1B market is extremely thin and given his defense, age, and proven power potential I think he can also net two good players.

I also think an American League team will be interested in Duda for some of the same reasons,young, lefty, power, OBP, can play 1B or can DH.

Same for Murphy. He's an established ML hitter. He's not a star but he can certainly help a playoff team.

If you think Niese could net a Danny Hultzen I'd make the trade. I'd also try and expand the deal to bring in a position player like Nick Franklin. Hultzen is one of the top LHP prospects in baseball and isn't that far away. His ceiling has been rated as high as a #2 starter on a contending team.

Mack Ade said...

I think the Mets have a number of players that would love off this team right now and could clear their head helping sommeone else get to a pennant.

It's clear that this team is at least 2 years away, so why not clean house and get yourself 5-7 current AA prospects