Let’s take a look at the Indians, who have been eliminated from the playoffs:
Their 2013 payroll was $80,605,733, a 23% increase from their 2012 payroll of $65,430,300.
All of this was due to the addition of two long term contracts, 1B Nick Swisher and CF Michael Bourn.
SS Asdrubal Cabrera ($10mi) contract expires at the end of the 2014 season, as does IF Mike Aviles ($3.5mil) and P Trevor Bauer ($1.183mil). 2B Ryan Rayburn’s at the end of the 2015 season and C Carlos Santana ends the following year (2016 - $8.450).
Free agents this year include P Brett Myers, P Ulbaldo Jiminez, RP and ex-Met Joe Smith and LHP and ex-Met Scott Kazmir.
Prospect wise, their #1 is SS Francisco Linder who will be MLB ready in 2014, making Cabrera expendable.
Mack – A couple of things here… there actually is a shortstop situation here that could help serve the Mets. Either Cabrera or Linder could be available for the right pitching prospects. Also, free agent wise, there is no one David Wright would rather sit next to on the plane when the team travels than Kazmir. He could be a cheap 2-year plan.
John Sickles end of the year prospect ranking list –
11) Noah Syndergaard, RHP, New York Mets. Pre-season 22, July 11. I can’t very well drop his stock given strong Double-A performance. One of my personal favorites.
24) Travis D'Arnaud, C, New York Mets. Pre-season 13, July 22. Just needs to play.
50) Rafael Montero, RHP, New York Mets. Unranked pre-season; July 50. Finished with a run of brilliance at Las Vegas; could rank higher when all is said and written.
Mack – It’s great to see Montero this high on his list. He impressed a lot of skeptics after what he did in Las Vegas during the last 45 days of the season. As we’ve discussed ad nauseum, you will most probably not see him on opening day in Queens (March 31, 2014 vs. Washington Nationals). You will see Zack Wheeler, Dillon Gee, and Jon Niese and then some 2-pitcher combination of Jenrry Mejia, Carlos Torres, new guy, Johan Santana, Dice-K, another new guy. Montero should hit Queens at least a month before Syndergaard and, by the end of July, you could have quite a rotation going here, even with Matt Harvey on the shelf.
Forbes Magazine –
•The Mets’ woes at the gate continue. While there were initial glimmers of hope, the club finished down 107,146 in paid attendance over last season, 21st in the league.
Mack – This actually was a little better than I thought it would be. The Mike Piazza Day proved that there is a positive fan base for the Mets. You can fill up that stadium if you give the fans a quality product plus a team that competes for a playoff spot. The quickest way of paying for new ballplayers is the turnstyles turning.
Jorge Castillo –
But the most intriguing storyline is probably what the club will do at first base. There are two obvious options currently on the roster: Ike Davis and Lucas Duda. “I don’t think we’ll make a decision in a vacuum,” Alderson said Monday at Citi Field. “We’ll look at what our other options are. This is not about, well, Player A vs. Player B necessarily. It could end up that way. And there are certain scenarios where both of those players, Davis and Duda, would be back with the organization. I just can’t give you any sort of definitive answer.”
Mack – Like the SP1, this is a mess that was supposed to be a solid, put-to-bed, positive situation. No one has any idea which one of these guys, if either, get another chance. I will tell you this… both of these guys are not going to be on the 25-mn come opening day. It will be one or none, with the other either in Vegas or traded.
Michael Scannell -
With all the chatter recently, it seems the entire IF could be in for a facelift (much needed) sans Wright. Talk about trading for Kendrick or moving EYJ to 2B coupled with the news that the Mets are willing to listen on Murphy puts Daniel's future in doubt. If his trade value has truly increased dramatically over the last year, this might be a chance to sell high.
I'm wondering if Detroit would be a potential partner. They have Infante hitting free agency and have had interest in Murphy in seasons past. I'm thinking about a Murphy + (Familia?) deal for Castellanos. The Mets could then use Castellanos in a package to Colorado for CarGo or Tulo (or BOTH) as it seems they want hitting prospects as well as pitching. Castellanos is one of the top hitting prospects in the game and would likely entice Colorado a bit more than Flores or Puello.
If the Mets made a move like this, it would allow them to bring on an additional team to facilitate a Rox trade as well as use Murphy as part of a package to increase the power in the lineup, albeit in a roundabout way. What are your thoughts?
Mack – To be honest Michael, I’m not thrilled with anyone in the infield other than David Wright. I’m willing to live with Daniel Murphy or give Eric Young Jr. a chance here (you have to make room for someone that led the league in stolen bases, right?), and I’m expecting big things from Travis d’Arnaud, but so far it’s all talk.
You always have a great bunch of ideas and I love the ones involving young prospects like Joc Peterson and Castellanos, but the Mets need now a real baseball player to hit 4th after Wright.
I want that deal done first and I really don’t care what it would cost the team in young pitching.
Troy Tulowitzki tables all these other scenarios. It’s going to cost you Zack Wheeler so consider it a Beltran for Tulo deal.
You’re taking on 100% of the contract, so it shouldn’t cost you much more. In fact, it coul be a nice place to dump a few duds like Tejada, Duda and/or Davis.
You still have Niese and Gee, Syndergaard and Montero coming in July, and Harvey in 2015.You also have plenty of money left now o go out and get an SP1 via the FA market.
Same horse beating.
Sam Dykstra –
Carolina League - Miss: Courtney Hawkins, Winston-Salem – The 19-year-old outfielder was pushed back to Class A Advanced ball for his first full season after reaching the level at the end of 2012. Though he exhibited some nice raw power with 19 homers, he struggled to make contact, striking out 37.6 percent of the time for Winston-Salem. He only put up a .178/.249/.384 slash line as well and is likely to head back to the Dash next season.
Mack – See, I told you it was good that the Mets didn’t draft this guy :)
Toby Hyde –
I no longer view Vaughn as a potential everyday contributor for the Mets. The move to AA really exposed him. His strikeout rate of 26.5% in AA this year was his highest at any minor league stop, while his walk rate of 8.2% was his lowest…
Mack – I agree.
Mike Kerwick –
As the Mets make their initial preparations for the 2014 season, the issue is how they plan to deploy those talented young arms. In Noah Syndergaard, Rafael Montero and Jacob deGrom, the Mets have three men with the potential to crack the big league rotation before the end of next season. "We’ve got excellent pitching, as everyone knows, at the minor league level," Mets GM Sandy Alderson said earlier this week. "But I’d be a little uncomfortable relying on either the young guys or an injured player filling those last two spots at the beginning of a season knowing how you can go through starting pitching over the course of a season." - http://www.northjersey.com/sports/226415181_Well-armed_Mets_have_more_on_way_have_more_on_way.html#sthash.mDWvYzwo.dpuf
Mack – Beat reporters know in their gut that they need to keep these names out there just in case the Matt Harvey news is bad and Zack Wheeler is traded for a premium bat. Good strategy.
Kristie Ackert -
Marlon Byrd would love to return to the Mets this winter, the Pirates outfielder tells Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News. After Byrd was traded to the Buccos in August, Byrd talked to Mets GM Sandy Alderson and told him "thank you for the opportunity at the beginning of the year and thank you for the opportunity to play for a winner. I told him, ‘If you want me back, I would love to come back.’ ” Byrd credits the Mets for giving him an opportunity to revive his career after serving a 50-game PED suspension last year. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/nl-east-links-cishek-byrd-ausmus-phillies.html
Mack – What do you think? One down, one to go?
19 comments:
Mack,
Great morning report...offseason can be more fun that the season itself. I agree Kazmir would be a nice fit at the right price and no longer than 2 years. He has to be on the radar screen. I agree 100% that the #4 bat is the top priority, and SS is right behind. That is why Tulo needs to be explored first - he fills both needs and is under 30 years old. Yeah, the money is a little scary, and he gets hurt a lot, but I think he is worth Wheeler and a couple other lesser parts. That needs to be followed by signing a legit starter, like a Kazmir, and a guy like DiceK, but they can save some money on the OF bat - Byrd would be perfect as he would cost less. That would give them an opening day staff of Niese-Gee-Kazmir-DiceK-maybe Harvey maybe Mejia, with Montero, DeGrom, and Thor on the way. Not great on day 1, but well positioned going forward. If Colorado asks for too much, move on the the Indians or White Sox.
I agree that the off season is definitely more entertaining then the regular season. And Mack that was a total knockout of an article. My one change to that scenario would be to substitute Montero for Wheeler. Getting Byrd and Tulo completely changes the lineup. I also would sign Abreu, starting him in AAA to acclimate to the states and then unleash him like the Dodgers did with Puig.
Again kudos for a great post. Thought provoking and intelligent.
thank you, guys
Just one quick point - if Murphy + could be dealt for a prospect of Castellanos' status, I was hoping Castellanos and Montero could be shipped to Colorado as part of a deal for Tulo and/or CarGo and Wheeler could be spared.
If Bryd would sign a one yr deal for about 3 mill, that includes an option for a little more money, I'd definitely try to resign him.
I'd also still look to acquire another legit outfielder like Beltran.
I'd hesitate big time in dealing Thor and Montero, as well as the three starters they're already counting on.
I just don't get the EYjr playing second talk. Murphy is so much better, as is Flores. I think they should keep Murph at second and stick Flores at first. Then I'd look to dump Ike and his salary on a team like the Rays, who'll end up with next years MVP candidate when Davis hits 45 homers.
Maybe trade Davis to St Louis for Kolten Wong. Then you could put Murphy at first.
One of the best Morning Reports.
I'm all for a Byrd reunion. If you get "that guy" here (be it Choo, Stanton, Cargo, Tulo, Abreu...I don't much care), the rest of the lineup becomes a lot easier. Byrd proved he hits for power and adds quite a bit of defense. His speed is an asset as well. As long as we get another A-list bat to make two in the lineup (with Wright), we can get by with the Lagareses and the Murphys in the lineup. Not ideal, but Wright and Choo will produce a lot of runs. Wright and Cargo will produce a lot of runs. Wright and Ellsbury will produce a lot of runs. We just need that bat.
Murphy is not better than Eric Young Jr. EY is a better defender (aren't most?) and brings two strong tools to the table (speed, and on-base ability...look at it..EY out OBPed Murphy and hit .40 fewer).
I'm all for trading Murphy while his value is the highest it will ever be. Let Eric Young man second, and work on that outfield. Get one BIG guy (Choo, Cargo?), sign one veteran outfielder with pop (Cruz, Byrd, Beltran), leg Lagares man center, and I'd ink Peralta or Drew to a short deal to man second.
Now first, I haven't a clue what to do there. Not one. Right now I'm leaning towards leaving Duda there.
I also wholeheartedly agree about Tulo. Do fans realize how expensive his contract is? He will not cost us our five best prospects. Mack is right. This will be a deal for Wheeler. Us eating 134 million over the next 7 years for an oft-injured shortstop will be the risk in that trade. I've never seen Sandy do something like that (ever...not just in his Mets tenure) so I'm very doubtful that happens.
I see him going for Drew or Peralta on a 2-3 year, 12-15 deal. Honestly, if either stay healthy and Tulo doesn't, there won't be much difference in production.
I'm all for Peralta. He's not the hitter he was this year, but he's always been a fantastic defender and with all of the groundballers we have in our rotation, Wright-Peralta-Young-Duda/Ike is a very strong defensive infield.
makes sense
But the question is... would you sign either Beltran or Byrd for a 2-year deal?
That is going to be their asking price.
Get a chalk board out and put it on the wall in front of your office.
Forget the pitching right now... we may need to trade one or more of these guys...
For now, put NL leading steal dude EJY as LF and first in lineup...
put Murphy on 2B and as your #2 hitter...
then put Wright on 3B as your #3 hitter...
Now... add Byrd as RF and #4 hitter...
Lastly, Arnaud as catcher and, for now #5 hitter...
Young, Murphy, Wright, Byrd, d'Arnaud... the 'meat' of the 2014 team
good start
I imagine Beltran would also cost twice what Byrd will, if not more.
Given choice (talent, reliability, past), Beltran in a heartbeat.
Taking into consideration mutual interest and cost, Byrd.
You?
Byrd 3MM plus 5MM vesting option, Beltran 2/25, Abreu 6/50(this is a real deal)Peralta 2/12 plus a 10MM vesting, Hawkins 2.5MM plus team option. We need a 3-4SP guy another 8MM, Buck 2MM, 2-5MM RHP Reliver.
Deal Ike, Murphy, keep Duda, Tejada, at AAA.
Extra 35-38MM for a championship caliber team.
2B EYJ
SS Peralta
3B Wrigth
LF Beltran
1B Abreu
RF Byrd
C d`Arnaud
CF Lagares
Bullpen: Parnell, Hawkins, Black, Germen, Edgin, Rice, Torres.
Rotation: Harvey???, Wheeler, Nice, Gee, SP3-4, Mejia, Matsuzaca/Harang/Santana, DeGrom, Montero, Thor.
I'm not all that excited about bringing Byrd back into the fold. We (and the Pirates) may have caught 'lightning the bottle' in 2013 with him. His season is such an anomaly in comparison with his career stats. If you sign him and he reverts back to his career norm or worse, than you're saddled with a fourth OF talent in one of your corner spots. Whereas with Beltran, although a six-months older, you're getting a future HOF-talent with a stronger career track record. I just believe, that creaky knees and all, he has much more potential to perform to his mean, and provide more value than Byrd on a two-year deal.
As for Wheeler, I really believe that he will be traded this offseason simply because he's the best trade chip they have (of those players they would actually move). I'm not sure the team is really sold on him in the way they are with Harvey, Syndegaard or even Montero. That's not to say they want to trade him, but the FO realizes to get the power bat they want, will probably include offering him in any deal they make.
It's really not bad. I know it will be overlooked, but the success of the 2014 Mets will come from the pitching--and not where you'd think.
Let's say Harvey doesn't make it this year and we have to pencil him in for 2015 and beyond. It's Dillon Gee, Jenrry Mejia, and Jon Niese who will make the difference between this team contending and finishing with yet another protected draft pick.
Each wins 15 games, pitches 180-200 innings and keeps runs off the board? We win the NL East.
Mejia and Niese struggle with injury and Gee regresses to the mid-4 ERA, back-rotation guy of a couple years back? A lot more problems.
The offense is not going to be a "strength". Best I can hope for is league average run production. The 2014 Mets contend from those three guys doing well, then help from the kids (Wheeler, Syndergaard, Montero, deGrom) providing valuable innings.
Mack, if you could trade Murphy to a team around an outfielder or shortstop (let's use Cleveland or Colorado as examples), would you do it?
And if you do, assuming you're getting a Cargo/Tulo or Lindor in return in that package (say bye to Wheeler), what do you do with second? Flores? Eric Young Jr? Sign Cano? (haha)
I want to put to bed 2014 and 2015 until the next wave of kiddies grow up...
sign BOTH Beltran and Bryd for 2 years
while you're at it, do the same for Napoli
agree with all as far as Mack's post's go. As far as my take on all this the FO not only HAS to make major moves this off season to improve the club but after seeing our attendance drop over 2 million from 08' we sure could use a few "star" players like Tulo and Beltran and also some who could bring a little added buzz into Citi-field like Kazmir and Abreu and God knows we could use it. At least with Harvey having surgery now and knowing he's out till 15' they can move forward on their off season plans.
Mack, I'd sign either Byrd or Beltran to a 2 yr deal, but not both. I don't think we can count on Byrd repeating his career 24 HR year, although Beltran may still give us 20+. I'd go for more pop in the other OF corner. Signing Abreu could change that dynamic, but I don't really see Sandy going all in for him. So I'd like to see us get an added power threat in the OF, and more speed at the top of the order in a SS. I'd love to get Andrus or Aybar for that spot.
Regarding the Wheeler for Tulo talk, I'm not doin' it. No way do I trade my potential stud starter under team control through 2019, for an injury prone SS (albeit one of the best players in the league) and take on $134 million in payroll to boot. The ONLY player I am giving up Wheeler for is Stanton, although I realize we would have to give up more than just Zack.
You know I am still wary about how well Cargo would hit in a sea level ball park. That notwithstanding, if I thought we could get Tolu and/or Cargo, I wouldn't hesitate to give up someone like Montero in a package that included Ike or Duda, Murphy or Flores, (any one of the four could effectively replace Helton at 1B) den Dekker, and 2, 3 or 4 younger strong prospects. Nimmo, from neighboring Wyoming, might be very interesting to Colorado.
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