Well, the new is out and it ain’t no good…We now know that Matt Harvey will not part of the 2014 Met team. 50% of the team’s all-star players are already lost for the season due to injuries.
Great teams have a hard time surviving shit like this but teams that can’t even play .500 ball three years in a row have basically no chance of returning to playoff status without their ace pitcher. Everything was different when he was on the field. The other Met players played different. The fans were different.
The Mets brain trust is down in Florida right now watching the kiddies play in the Instructs and beginning the process of formulating how they are going to approach the 2014 season. I for one have already thrown my hat in and I don’t mean that in a negative way.
Those that know me know I’ve always wanted this team built around pithing so the last thing I would want to do right now is start trading away what I still have.
In my book, for different reasons, Harvey, Rafael Montero, and Noah Syndergaard are on my shelf. That means there is no way I can produce my best pitching staff until all three of these guys are ready to contribute at 100%.
For now, I stay with Zack Wheeler, Jon Niese, Dillon Gee, and two somebodies.One could be Carlos Torres. Another could be Dice-K. It really doesn’t matter to me because I would concentrate my off-season free-agent dollars into finding some bats that can help this team over the next 2-3 years.
I’m not giving up on 2014 yet, but I’m not counting on it either. My focus has already turned to 2015 as the year the Mets will return to respectability and I welcome the opportunity to discuss it here today…
29 comments:
I agree that the focus shifts to 2015. And for that reason I'd be much more reluctant to sign Choo, who will be 33 in 2015. I'd devote real money toward a healthy pitcher (Arroyo fits) and also sign a 'flier' guy like Dice-K or Harang.
I'd still move to secure a good shortstop on a multi year deal and at least one OF. I'm hoping for more, but if these turn out to be Drew and Nelson Cruz then I think that's ok.
These moves would keep the farm system
In tact and leave the franchise with plenty of room to spend on the 2015 roster and beyond.
I deviate from this plan if I can make a trade for a younger player that is controllable for several years. Oakland likes to make these deals in order to replenish itself. And they have plenty of OF talent, with Choice waiting in the wings.
A combination of Wheeler, Niese, Gee, Mejia & Dice-K w/ Torres in the pen to start the year with Montero, deGrom & Syndergaard waiting in the wings isn't a bad situation. That's an above average rotation with a pretty good long man in the pen and 3 young prospects waiting for their shot.
They could do a ton of different things to bring in bats even without dealing pitchers. They could swap Flores or Murphy for a young OF or SS. They could trade for a salary dump with a rebuilding team. They could go out and sign Byrd, Cruz & Napoli while picking up Alexei Ramirez and we instantly have a much butter offense with an above average pitching staff.
They set themselves up so that they could be on the verge of contending in 2014 and once Harvey gets back, watch out.
The rotation guy I really want is Tim Hudson. Take some pressure off the young guys. Will be around the same price tag, if not a little cheaper than Arroyo.
I'm sick to death of people bemoaning the lack of pitching. OTHER organizations like the Cardinals (who are in the playoffs), the Pirates (who are in the playoffs), the Nationals (who are not) and the Marlins (who are not) simply promote their best players when they think they can help. They don't have people on some arbitrary plan for a set number of innings at each level which means prospects don't see the light of day until they are 23, 24 or 25. You want the Harvey injury to force your hand a little, then promote Montero to one open slot and hope that Mejia or Torres or Dice-K can hold down the other. Pitching problem SOLVED at minimum wage.
NOW go get some bats!
It's not an arbitrary plan. It's the organizational plan for player development. Just because the Marlins decided that Fernandez could jump from A Ball to the show, doesn't mean that every organization should do the same. If Montero comes into Spring Training and dominates and out pitches his competition, like Fernandez did, I guarantee he is with us on Opening Day. But if he is just average and can't separate himself from Dice K, Torres or whatever starter he's competing with, then obviously they believe he still needs some more work in AAA.
I agree Reese.
These players should be promoted when they're ready. We are going to see a lot of Thor, Monteto, and DeGrom during spring trading and the fan base will get a good idea just who will be. The problem is that the Mets don't have an Ace without Harvey and they aren't looking to get one.
This means they desperately need a good offense. My hope is that the Wilpons decide that they've let far too much talk about succeeding in 2014 to go on to just sit back and sign average players to fill out the roster.
They desperately need butts in seats and signing Abreu would be the best first step in making that happen.
Wilpon's say they will spend!!!
Then spend like a Major City should spend.
5 guys at contracts of 10-13 million for no more than 3 years.
That's what I want to see!
If they don't spend,then sell the team.
Sell to an owner that will spend like an owner of alarge market team.
Here is my wishlist
Beltran
Byrd
Drew
J.Johnson
Arroyo
I think Thor is going to become a top five prospect in the league. I think he'll dominate AAA in a way that Harvey, Wheeler, and Montero didn't. I'm hopeful that he'll pitch his way to the Mets by June.
I think the mets are dreaming if they think they can sign a bunch of average players and make this team better. They need some legit bobbers so spending big money is a must.
I think they need to, but won't, sign Abreu. His defense at first shouldn't be an issue. They need legit power and he figures to instantly become the teams number 4 hitter without having to pay him 20 a year. If that isn't the type of value Sandy is looking for, then I don't know what fits the bill.
Abreu
Beltran
Peralta
Bryd
Garza
Go big! Start up the phones and start dealing. This will make numerous players expendable. I like that they sent three guys to scout Abreu, but don't like that other teams sent their actual GMs.
If it were up to me I go all in on Masahiro Tanaka. Look him up on Youtube, he is for real. Better than Darvish. How much money does he bring in from Japan to a team like the Mets?
This would allow the Mets to trade Gee and/or Montero for some bats.
2014 should be viewed as 84 or 85 was to the 86 Mets. They need to make major progress but it is not going to be the year. They don't need spend all the money available to them just because it is available. Spend it wisely.
The Mets should go after guys like Beltran who can help make us respectful but who will not tie us up for when players like Cargo and Stanton do hit the market. It also would buy some time to see what we really have in players like Puello.
I read everything written this morning.
Teams like Baltimore (2012) and Boston (2013) have rebuilt with what many of you would think were secondary players.
I'm just saying two things here.
You have the pitching. One is being operated on this month and two others will start the season in AAA. You have four more that are serious major league starters. It's a great rotation that could be one of the top three in 2015.
You have hardly anyone (with a bat in their hands) in the system to help you in the next three years. Everybody comes with a question mark.
I don't have the solution, but I guarantee you will never make the playoffs if you break up this rotation.
I think we have the makings of a solid rotation even without Harvey. I'd suggest adding 3 offensive threats to the lineup such as drew, Beltran and one of Cruz or Choo. That would make an awesome lineup and we wouldn't lose a draft pick and we would instantly upgrade our offense. IMO, we would not be far off a playoff spot and mid season who knows what additions could be made via trade and/or what the arrival of Montero and Syndergaard could have.
Plus if worst comes to worst and our players are tanking, there is value to trade in Drew, Beltran, Cruz and Choo if they are producing!!!!
Shit! Should I be a GM or what? Jp but this is a sound plan. IMO.
Of course mini alterations would need to be made for the bullpen and the bench. But it would be a solid 25.
I would like to see the Mets keep their pitching. Beltran has been losing range even in Right Field, the solution? Carlos Beltran meet first base. Marlon Byrd and one of Shin Shoo Choo, Nelson Cruz, Jacoby Ellsbury or less expensive alternative. Depending on the changes in the posting system that may come as early as this winter I wouldn't mind spending money on Tanaka. The Mets have to prove themselves to the fans so that means at least one major signing. This signing will be all Wilpon's so I expect Alderson will only have limited input. Shortstop will be a combination of Tejada and a reach like Rafael Furcal. Abreu more likely to go to Red Sox, White Sox, or Marlins. Let's just hope Alderson doesn't spend money on the bullpen as he has a horrible track record making good decisions in that regard.
I still think Abreu is a stretch.
My first sign would be the quickest one... Byrd for 2/yrs.
I then would concentrate on Mike Napoli and SS
Steve,
With all due respect, I think your wish list should start with Mike Bloomberg or Mark Cuban.
Beltran losing range is still better than 75% of the outfield is the baseball. That simple! Don't get caught up in nonsense. Don't forget the type of player he was
Im not giving up on 2014. Now i dont think its a WS season, but 2014 is the 500 year thats the goal. And 2015 is the year we dont think about just making the playoffs but winning playoff series. its a progression.
If you want to make a trade this off-season for a big time player you have to assume that one of these 4 players is going in that trade. Wheeler, Gee, Thor or Montero. And im fine with that. it cost something to bring back a good player. Dont be like yankee fans and suggest trading spare parts for all stars. a good trade like a good negotiation both sides feel like they both gave something they didnt want to.
Id certainly trade, Ike, Montero, de grom for CarGo, but i dont think that would get it done. It will cost Wheeler plus to even think about tulo. He wont be a salary dump for them ever. While CarGo is a very good player that doesnt come with emotional attachemnt.
Just as an fyi, if the mets make a trade with the Rockies, everyone should be prepared for either Duda or davis to hit 30 homeruns. it will just happen.
Personally this off season, id like to see the mets sign nelson cruz 3 years 42 mm, Roy Hallady/johan 1 year 5 mm plus incentives up to an additonal 8 mm. and a professional if not exciting shortstop like drew at 2 years under 20 mm.
the free agents here would cost 30 mm for the year. cargo 17, ike minus 3
total addition to payroll 45mm
Robb -
I just can't agree with you about trading a pitcher right now.
Sign anyone you want but the team needs to keep all of these guys...
Wheeler, Niese, Gee, Mejia, Montero, Syndergaard, Torres... until they can figure out who the five best are...
This is the future of your team
I agree Mack. I'm completely against trading the pitchers. Most teams can only dream of having the pitching the Mets have. Three solid starters, four if you include Mejia, plus two prospects that figure to be up by June that'll easily slot into the rotation and give you much needed depth and surplus.
That doesn't include deGrom or Mazzoni who I think should help down the stretch in the bullpen. They should leave the arms alone and concentrate on bringing bats to Flushing via free agency.
Let's face it, pitching isn't the problem. I think the major issue is that the Mets might not be prepared to work within today's market for free agent players. When guys like Cody Ross get three year deals at 8 mill a year, does anyone truly believe Sandy is going to pay what it'll cost for a player like Beltran?
I don't see any way around spending more then they're comfortable in order to make 2014 successful. It's either pay up and start acting like the big market team they are or start trading prospects. We already know they ain't going to trade prospects, at least not the real good ones. Sandy, Jeff, and Fred have a big surprise headed their way if they think they'll be able to stretch 30 million dollars into enough IMPACT talent to make this team a winner.
Trading the pitching is what you so if you're one piece away from possibly having a WS contender and the mets aren't there yet. Think about all the pitching injuries the mets suffered in the last calendar year and then tell me it's a good idea to start trading pitchers.
Santana, Harvey, Niese, Marcum(4/5 of what was supposed to be their rotation in April), plus Mazzoni, Fulmer, Mateo, Pill, Familia, Mejia, Edgin, Parnell, Attchison.
Wheeler got shut down early because of shoulder tightness.
Gee was coming back from surgery.
Fulmer was shut down twice.
Mateo had to have TJS.
As does Harvey.
Frank Fransisco was a joke.
Hansel Robles took a dive after injury.
The pitching must carry this team and as you can see, if you don't have depth, you're dead. They not only need pitching, but good pitching with quality depth.
The mets finally have money to spend and I think their best bet is to do like Mack says and keep the pitching and buy the bats. I wouldn't worry too much about whoever they do end up signing because after another year of development, the mets should have a lot more options from their system in terms of bats.
In 2015, guys like Puello, Lawley, Vaughn, Pawlecki, Boyd, and possibly even Nimmo may be ready to help out. it wouldn't shock me if Puello is starting in right field by July in 2014 if he continues to take in Vegas the way he did in Bingo.
Do what Charley is telling you to do....
Mack-
oh Im not intent on trading a pitcher, but if you are going to make a trade for a big bat its going to have to include one of those four pitchers. while i would prefer not too
I would give up one, but not two.
also cotts lists Cargo at 10mm next year so that entire think would be under 40 mm in new payroll.
The disadvantage we are at in playing GM is that we don't know the conversations that other GMs are having.
Not trading are pitching is a good philosophy from one perspective, which you've given. On the other hand you can say trade them, since injuries are so common, while the value is high, before they get hurt.
I wouldn't look to trade pitching unless they got a young bat under control for several years. If they were able to land Tanaka they would be in the position to trade Gee or Montero or both. They would be improving their pitching and their offense.
2014 need to be a year of opportunity. If opportunities come that would benefit the team in the long run they need to do that even if it means trading young pitching. Syndergaard would be the only nearly untouchable they should have. That's not saying deal Montero for any offensive player. They don't need to move him but if the right offer comes they should make it.
you are right Richard...
trust me, if a GM called me up and said they would trade me Tulo straight up for, let's say, Syndergaard, I'd do it in a heart beat, but it's not going to happen.
I want to first say that I respect all the comments above as insightful and respected, so my comment is not an attack on anyone else's opinion. That said, I simply cannot accept that the focus shifts to 2015. The Mets have every reason and opportunity to compete for the NL East title in 2014. The first step is to start acting like a winning organization. In 2011, the Cardinals lost their ace to TJ for the entire year. Nobody cried in their soup or pushed the focus to the next season. Granted they had better talent, but the Mets have more of an opportunity to upgrade their talent this winter than most other teams in baseball. And, they can do this without mortgaging the future any more than anyone else in baseball. Now, they need to add pitching - one legit MLB starter, one vet to compete with the kids for the #5 spot, and a vet arm in the pen as backend insurance. This will build the necessary quality at the MLB level and allow the depth at AAA and AA to keep the pitching deep. Adding this pitching should not come at the expense of adding offense and defense. Again, this is possible. They absolutely need a quality SS from outside the organization, but this SS must bring plus defense and be able to provide some offense..not a #8 hitter because the gold glove CF has the spot in the lineup, and they need that glove to support the pitching. I would not look to deal Niese, Gee, Wheeler, Montero, or Thor, but I would consider it for a premium power bat in his prime and under control. An ownership that is truly intent on winning can get this done in 2014 without hurting the team in subsequent seasons, it just needs the will and the stones. I'm not sure these guys do, but we'll soon find out.
Would you deal Montero for Encarnacion?
I agree that the Mets do need to start competing in 2014. The one thing I don't want to see is them making bad long term moves for the sake of 2014. Our best chance will come after 2014 when some of our younger talent is ready.
I hope they make moves that will give them a chance to win in 2014 and that we will not regret by 2016. That was Omar's game plan and look where it got us.
I would rather they over pay for Beltran for 2 years than over pay for Choo for 6 to 8 years. If their patient and save their money someone better than Choo will come along.
The one guy I would pay for is Tanaka, if the video I seen of him and his stats are true to his ability. He has 4 or 5 plus pitches. Some of the nastiest stuff I've seen. Everything seems to indicate he is better than Darvish.
Edwin Encarnacion?
Yes I would
If the Mets pass on trading for a hitter now because Harvey is injured, they might not be able to later. I don't think anyone who suggests trading some of the pitching advocates doing so just because. We just feel that if an elite hitter at the price of a few arms you strike while the iron is hit.
The problem for the Mets in following what the Orioled and Red Sox have done is that both teams already had a nucleus in place before they added to it. The Mets need that nucleus first...having David Wright and a slew of mid-tier FAs and AAAA players isn't going to get it done.
Adding another 'heavy' and a leadoff hitter puts the Mets in position to add the secondary pieces. It's a lot to add in one offseason, I know.
I just don't accept that the mets should build a system up, simply to trade away their pitching depth to get a big bat. I'm sorry, but they don't have that much depth.
If that means they can't compete, so be it. Then they simply haven't completed their rebuild yet. I was under the impression that they were waiting out bad contracts so they could spend. I didn't think they were trying to accumulate depth in he minors to trade it away.
Let this big market team put their money where their mouth is. Pardon me, but screw them if they don't want to spend that much! This is a NY team and I'd they can't afford a payroll of at least 125 million, they should sell the team.
All this BS about not wanting to get into more bad contracts is a load of shit. Remember what the crosstown yankees are dropping their payroll too and then tell me the mets can't raise theirs to 125. This is total bullshit and the fan base shouldn't spend a dime on this team until they start spending some of their own.
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