Mack’s Morning Report – 1-14 – 2000 Draft, Top 20 Mets Rookies, Thor’s FB

Coming up today at 11am EST:

                     Are the 2014 Mets a Better Team on Paper? (Third Basemen) - Christopher Soto

Tommy B asked an interesting question about the draft and wanted me to spend some time breaking how poorly the Mets have drafted over the years. I have always though the Mets got a bad rap on this issue because frankly, everybody sucks at the draft.

So, here’s what I’m going to do… I’m going to break out who was drafted in the top three rounds of each of the NL East teams, how they have done in their career, and also give you a general overall success/failure level on each teams draft. We’ll start with the year 2000 and take it up to 2007, which would represent six years ago, a fair amount of time to cement your minor league record.

But first, let's go back and do the math again...

Every organization has around 8 minor league teams with around 25 active players per team and five more floating around on their own DL list. That's 240 ballplayers... then you draft 50 more and sign, let's say, 20 more international players... you're up to 310.

And let's not forget the 25 you also have on your major league club.

This is a lot of baseball players all trying to make the grade. Trust me...  if you get three legitimate major league baseball players out of every draft you are the king of the world.

So, here goes with…

2000 –

Mets  -           #1  P Billy Traber   215-IP, 12-14, 5.65 over five years

                        #1  P Bobby Keppel           49-IP, 1-5, 3.38 over three years

                        #2 P Matt Peterson          career ended in AAA

                        #3 P  Josh Reynolds          career ended in A+

Only five of the 51 players drafted by the Mets made it to the pro level.

                        None had success at that level.

Florida -        #1 1B Adrian Gonzalez   5,009-AB, .294, 235-HR

                        #2 If Jason Stokes career ended in AAA

                        #3 P Rob Henkel    career ended in AAA

Only two of the 45 players drafted by Florida in 2000 made it to the pro level.

                        Both (Gonzalez, Josh Willingham) had success at that level

Montreal -   #1 P Justin Wayne            62-IP, 5-8, 6.13 over three years

                        #3 OF Grady Sizemore     3,527-AB, .269, 139-HR

Only seven of the 49 players drafted by Montreal in 2000 made it to the pro level

                        Only three (Sizemore, Cliff Lee, Jason Bay) had success at that level.

Atlanta -      #1 P Adam Wainwright 1,315-IP, 99-57, 3.11

                        #1 IF Scott Thorman         415-AB, .222 over two years

                        #1 IF Kelly Johnson           3,664-AB, .253

                        #1  IF Aaron Herr   career ended in AAA

                        #2  P Bubba Nelson          career ended in AAA

                        #2  P Bryan Digby career ended in AA

                        #3  P Blaine Boyer 234-IP, 9-14, 4.81

Only eight out of the 54 players drafted by Atlanta in 2000 made it to the pro level

Only three (Wainwright, Johnson, Adam LaRoche) had success at that level

Philadelphia –

                        #1  IF Chase Utley 4,910-AB, .287, 217-HR

                        #3  P Kevin Bucktrot         career ended in AA

Only four of the 38 players drafted by Philadelphia in 2000 made it to the pro level.

                        Only two (Utley, Taylor Buchholz) had success at that level.

237 ballplayers were drafted in 2000 by the NL East teams

26 made it to the MLB level –    10.9%

Only 10 had success at that level -   4.2%

John Looby asked - Hey Mack, I love reading your site. Yours, amongst a few others, helps to feed my Mets addiction here in Australia.

As the subject suggests, my question is around prospects and specifically those in rookie ball.

When looking at prospect listings, I like to separate them into AAA/AA, A/-A  and rookie league.

With AAA/AA, you can generally start to make judgements on how the skill set will translate to the majors. A/-A you start getting a feel for what the skill sets are and rookie ball is kindergarten.

I read, and watch clips of the top two tiers so I can gain grasp on the capabilities of these guys. What I'd like is an opinion on how the rookie league players stack up and maybe a list of your top 10-15.

            Mack – Hello, mate. You have this prospect thing pretty much down. There simply isn’t much to judge in rookie ball other than raw talent and tools. Batters are swinging at everything and pitchers have basically got to where they are by throwing a fastball. The Mets management in Kingsport always starts the season off by telling their squad that they are about to being to learn something they haven’t been taught yet… the game of baseball.

A (Savannah) and A+ (St. Lucie) get a little more complex. I remember running into Josh Thole at spring training in 2009 and we talked about the difference of playing in Savannah and St. Lucie. He said to me, ‘remember when we used to  gawk at Jesus Montero and Jason Heyward? Well, in St. Lucie, they all look like them…”. This simply is the natural process of around five rookie teams worth of talent (125 players) being reduced to 25. The crème definitely begins to rise to the top, pitchers that survive here know how to throw multiple pitches and pound the zone (they’ll start learning to hit the corners in Binghamton) and hitters start to increase their OBP by waiting out a bad pitcher.

But, back to rookie ball. Right now, prior to the 2014 roster assignments, here’s my Top 20 Mets Rookie Ball Players:

1.     1B Dominic Smith

2.     SS Amed Rosario

3.     SP Chris Flexen

4.     SP Robert Whalen

5.     SP Miller Diaz

6.     SP Andrew Church

7.     RP Akeel Morris

8.     OF Wuilmer Becerra

9.     SS Gavin Cecchini

10.            SP John Gant

11.            P Casey Meisner

12.            SP Jose Medina

13.            OF Jorge Rivero

14.            2B LJ Mazzilli

15.            SP Robert Gsellman

16.            3B Jhoan Urena

17.            RP Ricardo Jacquez

18.            SS Luis Guillorme

19.            SS Jeff McNeil

20.            DH Victor Cruzado



Fangraphs had a nice article on the upcoming draft and the college players from both large and small schools:

The two top arms are both college pitchers and it’s one from each group. North Carolina State southpaw Carlos Rodon is the consensus top talent. East Carolina right-hander Jeff Hoffman did much on the Cape to close the gap. Rodon’s teammate Trae Turner, Vandy RHP Tyler Beede, Indiana OF Kyle Schwarber, LSU RHP Aaron Nola and UVA OF Derek Fisher headline the power conference group. Smaller conference programs are again well represented though. Hartford LHP Sean Newcomb is a potential top 10 pick. Others are San Francisco OF and Royals farm hand Kyle Zimmer’s brother Bradley, Kennesaw State catching phenom Max Pentecost and power arms Michael Cederoth (San Diego State) and Kyle Freeland (Evansville). http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/finding-prospects-from-smaller-conferences-colleges/

Thor’s FB:

Fastball (FB) Velocity (Wind-up): High – 100, Low – 90, Average – 93-95, Grade – 70/80

Fastball (FB) Velocity (Stretch): High – 99, Low 90, Average 93-94, Grade – 70/80

Fastball (FB) Movement: Really good plane to the plate because of height and long arms. Good angle makes him difficult to square and helps induce ground balls. Has some boring action at times. Shows ability to add sink as well and should have more consistent ability to do so with additional experience. Grade – 60/70

Overall Fastball: Potential elite pitch with ability to dominate hitters. Raw velocity is already impressive and could reach elite levels with physical maturity and more repetition. Angle and natural life help FB play up right now. Grade – 70/80 

For more on Thor...    http://networkedblogs.com/SPhzR