Mack’s Morning Report – 1-20-14 - 2005 Draft, The Mets and the Wilpons, A Look Ahead?

Coming up today - 11am - Chrisopher Soto - Are the 2014 Mets a Better Team on Paper? (Center Fielders)

2pm - Craig Mitchell -- "Summer is a Strat-O-Matic Heaven"

5pm - Matt Gad -  Mets sign ex-Nats star....Now Who Is The Fifth Starter Out of Camp?

Michael Baron ‏@michaelgbaron - RIght now, I have the #Mets payroll at $87.6 million. That's without much of a bullpen, and issues at SS/1B/rotation depth.

-We continue to look at the draft years of 2000-2007 for the NL East teams. Specifically, we break out the players chosen in the top three rounds and an overall assessment of success (sic) in choosing players in the draft.

2005 –

Mets  -    

      

            #1       P          Mike Pelfrey           1,049-IP, 55-67, 4.48

            Five of the 48 players drafted made it to the major league level

            Four (Pelfrey, Jon Niese, Bobby Parnell, Josh Thole) have had success at this level

Florida –

            #1       P          Chris Volstad          704-IP, 35-51, 4.94

            #1       P          Aaron Thompson              8-IP, 7.04

            #1       P          Jacob Marceaux                career ended at the AA level

            #1       P          Ryan Tucker                        42-IP, 8.14

            #1       P          Sean West               113-IP, 8-8, 5.03

            #2       OF       Kris Harvey              career ended at the AA level

            #2       C          Brett Hayes             350-AB, .220

            #3       P          Matt Goven                        career ended at the A+ level

            Eight of the 55 players drafted made it to the major league level

            Three (Volstad, Gaby Sanchez, Logan Morrison) had some success at this level

Nats –

            #1       3B       Ryan Zimmerman             4.429-AB, .286, 672-RBI

            Five out of the 48 players drafted made it to the major leagues.

            Three (Zimmerman, John Lannan, Craig Stammen) had success at that level

Atlanta –

            #1       P          Joey Devine             88-IP, 8-3, 2.75

            #1       P          Beau Jones              career ended at the AAA level

            #2       SS        Yunel Escobar         3,437-AB, .278, 354-RBI

            #2       P          Jeff Lyman               career ended at the AAA level

            #3       OF       Jordan Schafer      1,013-AB, .227

            Six of the 52 draft picks made it to the MLB level

            Five (Devine, Esobar, Schafer, Tommy Hanson, Tyler Flowers) had some success at that level

Philadelphia –

            #2       3B       Mike Costanzo       18-AB, .056

            #3       P          Matt Maloney       91-IP, 5-9, 5.74

            Five of the 49 players drafted made it to the MLB level

            Two (Maloney, Josh Outman) had limited success at this level

252 ballplayers were drafted in 2005 by the NL East teams

 29 made it to the MLB level -  11.5%

Only 17 had success at that level   -  6.7%

We had a discussion early this week about the Wilpons and whether or not they will commit the monies needed in the future to secure the services of (what I call them) ‘The Big Three’… Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Noah Syndergaard.

I estimated that it will take somewhere in the range of $60-70 million dollars a year to properly contract them through the remainder of this decade. And, my numbers may be conservative at best.

John Zozo pointed out:

Mack you know this ownership group won't pony up that kind of money for any of the 3 pitchers, if they become as good as we hope. Actually maybe they pony up for 1 and that's because the fan base put to much pressure on them.. We are Tampa Bay North now!!!

Anonymous counted with:

            John, we shouldn't forget that this organization spent plenty of money before the Madoff saga. If things go as planned, the team will be better and attendance will be higher, SNY ratings will be higher, the owners will be in a stronger financial position. So, I think it's fair to expect that payroll could be in the $150 million range in a few years. I don't think it's fair to judge the owners only on the last couple of years when they were wounded financially.

Look, I’ve been very critical of the Wilpons because, as a Mets writer, I think it would have been in the best interest of Mets fans to have this team owned by a more solvent family, individual, or corporation.

The Wilpons never had problems supporting this team when the economy was good and they were also getting a good return for the money they invested. They double downed on their dream by designing the ‘new Ebbets Field’ and financing the vast majority of the money needed to build it.

Then, a double whammy. The economy tanked and their trusted investment guru turned out to be a crook.

Everything didn’t change overnight because the Wilpons decided to operate differently. Things changed because they were cash broke.

Look, I was considered a pretty good and decent broadcaster… until I went belly up in the late 80s. That last year of ownership included vast cutbacks of good people that trusted me with their future as well as going salary-less and pumping $20k a month out of my pocket into the operation to pay the bills.

I left ownership without a pot to piss in and was hired by a bank (GE Capital) to go out to Austin, Texas and clean house in a radio operation that had lost $2mil in the previous year. I fired 22 native Texans, got the station to a break even state, and sold it to Clear Channel, but to this day I am still thought of as the worst radio broadcaster to ever go through that town.

The Wilpons (and especially, Saul Katz) are not stupid people and they knew they had to find someone that could steer this ship in the right direction with a limited amount of fuel. I’m not saying they are saints, but they didn’t trade Tom Seaver either.

Yes, I still believe it would have been better for the Mets to be owned by someone else right now, but frankly, after what has transpired for this company and their bank accounts, it is fiscal responsibility.

Bob asked –

Mack That was my first thought also, that Quintanilla being signed pointed towards Tejada being the starting SS next year. I also saw in a report somewhere that the current projected Met payroll for next year, even after factoring in the arbitration settlements made and projected to still be made, was about 82-83 million. What are your thoughts about the difference between this amount and Sandy stating earlier this winter that he was certain next year’s payroll would be MORE than last years? Is there something he is still looking to do this winter? during spring training? during the season? maybe just for the heck of it, spread the rest of the money between everyone on the team as a bonus? or might this be another purposely misleading statement made about the teams finances/player acquisition plans

Mack – No, I think he truly expected to have more done at this point. The addition of John Lannan and Omar Quintanilla will add some, but I’m sure he expected to be spending around ten million more for a shortstop.

My guess is he is just about done until the all-star break, except for the international signing bonuses that the team is supposed to spend heavily in this year.

Sandy Alderson will continue to do what he can to improve this team from the bottom up. That’s all he can do under the current revenue restraints.

He didn't lie, Bob. He just had it wrong.

A Look Ahead?

Instead, look for the players to demand more compensation. The current arrangement expires after the 2016 season, so we probably won't hear much about this topic for at least another year or two. Since baseball is raking in such large quantities of money, more than a few owners will go green at the gills when confronted with a possible labor stoppage. If the two parties are looking for a fair and equitable solution, perhaps it finally is time to do away with the reserve clause or take other steps to improve early-career compensation. http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/against-the-trend-the-dodgers-continue-spending/