Are the 2014 Mets a Better Team on Paper? (Rotation)

We have clearly improved at the C, SS, and CF positions even though the players are the same. We expect the same lackluster production at 1B, and the same solid production at 2B and 3B. As we stated before, LF looks like its a real wild card since we still have no idea who's going to be starting and RF should be at least equal to last year's production but has a chance to be a bit better. Lets switch over to the arms and see how the rotation will far without Matt Harvey.

(***Note this takes into account the team as it is today. Steamer Projections are extrapolated out to 162 games for the starter only.)

2013

Players: Dillon Gee, Matt Harvey, Johnathan Niese, Jeremy Hefner, Zack Wheeler, Shaun Marcum, Carlos Torres, Daisuke Matsuzaka, Jenrry Mejia, Aaron Harang, Aaron Laffey, Colin McHugh
Stats: 48-57, 3.68 ERA, 4 CG, 10 SO, 280 BB, 817 K, .257 BAA
(8th in MLB ERA)

     We figured 2013 would be a transition year to guide us to eventually having the best rotation in the MLB with 3 of the top 10 SP in it. Little did we know that this raggedy bunch would be a Top 10 rotation in baseball. Harvey surprised us all by not only improving on his solid 2012 but vaulting himself into Cy Young consideration in only his 2nd year. All year long he was fooling batter after batter with his 97+ MPH fastball and a devastating slider that made even the best hitters in the looks look absolutely silly.

     It wasn't all him though. After Dillon Gee struggled mightily through April and May with 5.25+ ERA's in both month's, he eventually found his stuff become a lights out pitcher posting 2.73, 2.88, and 2.13 ERA's over the next 3 months showing that maybe we should consider him something more than just a #5 pitcher.

     Niese also struggled during the 1st half of the season as he saw his ERA rise and his K rate fall thanks to back issues which led to arm troubles. After taking the month of July off he came back and was excellent posting a 3.00 ERA the rest of the season and getting his K rate back up to a healthy 7.6 K/9.

     Outside of a 5 game stretch in June where he posted a 1.80 ERA, Hefner was terrible. Marcum never got going losing 10 of his 12 starts before spending the rest of the season on the DL. Torres proved extremely useful as a reliever (1.47 ERA) but not as useful as a starter (4.89 ERA). Mejia made some strong starts posting a 2.30 ERA on a balky elbow but eventually ended up on the DL as well. Haranag and Matsuzaka were ok in their cups of coffee with the team but Laffey and McHugh were busts.

     Lastly, we saw the debut of our 2nd young guy Zack Wheeler. While he did not perform as well as Harvey in his debut, after he got through his first 3 starts, Wheeler did post 2.73 and 3.13 ERA's before reaching his innings limit in September. Following the same path Harvey did, spending this spring with the big league club could lead to a break-out season in 2014.

2014

Starter #1: Jonathan Niese: 11-12, 3.90 ERA, 3.59 FIP, 7.0 K/9, 2.8 BB/9

Starter #2: Zack Wheeler: 11-13, 4.12 ERA, 4.00 FIP, 8.2 K/9, 4.2 BB/9
Starter #3: Bartolo Colon: 12-12, 3.80 ERA, 3.54 FIP, 6.5 K/9, 1.7 BB/9
Starter #4: Dillon Gee: 11-13, 4.17 ERA, 3.92 FIP, 6.6 K/9, 2.6 BB/9
Starter #5: Jenrry Mejia: 12-12, 3.79 ERA, 3.57 FIP, 7.4 K/9, 3.3 BB/9

     Wow.....I am very shocked at how poorly STEAMER is projected our rotation to be. I basically do not agree with any of these projections. While the Niese projections is fair, I feel a return to his healthy 2012 is more likely, especially since his K rate towards the end of 2013 did return to his 2012 rate. STEAMER is actually forecasting regression for Wheeler which I just cannot see happening. I like the Colon projection, hate the Gee projection and am surprised by the Mejia projection.

     For what its worth another projection system called OLIVER, does not agree with STEAMER either. OLIVER is much higher on Niese, Wheeler, Colon, and Gee, while lower on Mejia. In fact OLIVER projection believe that there will be enough improvement from Niese and Wheeler to make up for the loss of Harvey. Overall, OLIVER is projecting a team SP ERA of 3.81 while STEAMER is projecting 3.96. As to be expected there will be regression from the loss of Harvey but both projections are still in the top half of the MLB and OLIVER's is still a Top 10 rotations.

    Plus as a side note. Neither projection takes into account the expected debuts of Syndergaard and Montero so there is a ton of room for upside.

Verdict: Small regression with some HEAVY upside. Eventually could settle at push to slight improvement even without Harvey depending on how well Montero and Syndergaard perform.

Mack - I don't know how to come up with a positive spin on a rotation with the loss of Matt Harvey.

I love the Colon signing, just for the innings he's going to eat. I don't expect Mejia to last the season because guys like him never do.

Projecting a regression for Zack Wheeler is just stupid.

'On paper', due to the loss of Harvey, the Mets rotation is less talented in 2014, but we haven't factored in Syndergaard, Montero, and anyone additional Sandy might sign.

My guess... and it's only a guess... the Mets will hang in there through May and Sandy will throw out the Super 2 when it comes to Montero. Then it could become interesting.