The Brewer’s signed Mark Reynolds to a minor league deal on
Thursday. This eliminated last suitor for Ike Davis. His trade market never
truly developed. The Mets and Sandy Alderson were looking to parlay Ike for a
top-level pitching prospect like the Brewers’ Tyler Thornburg, Eduardo Rodriguez
(Orioles) and Nick Kingham (Pirates). They were reportedly the type of top-level
prospects the Mets wanted in exchange for their slugging 1B.
Of these three, Thornburg was the only one who could’ve jumped
right in the starting rotation.
The lefty Rodriguez finished his season with AA Bowie where
he posted 59 K’s in 59 IP, had a SO/9 of 8.9 and solid 1.29 WHIP. The southpaw is
still at least a year away but is also the #6 LHP prospect in MLB according to MLB.com.
This is what they had to say about the talented Rodriguez:
“He has grown into his
big frame and now throws his fastball in the low-90s with good action.
Rodriguez's changeup and slider give him two more quality pitches with which to
attack hitters.”
The Pirates Kingham, like Rodriguez, finished his 2013
season in AA (Altoona) where he whiffed 69 in 73 IP, while averaging 8.5 SO/9
with a 1.364 WHIP. He is not ranked as a top MLB prospect but is the Bucs #9
prospect according to MLB.com.
“The big right-hander
could have three above-average-or-better pitches and above-average command when
all is said and done. Kingham will touch 95 mph with his fastball, with plenty
of movement. His changeup has deceptive sink, and it's been his best secondary
offering in the past. His curve may have caught up, and the power breaking ball
might be just as good down the road.”
Thornburg is penciled in as the Brewers #5 after striking out
48 in 66.2 IP for them in 2013. His 6.5 SO/9 was low but a WHIP of 1.185
demonstrates he has good command of his pitches. In AAA his SO/9 averaged over
10, so that K rate should increase dramatically in 2014.
This gives you an idea of the Mets perceived value of Davis
on the open market-more than a bit on the high side if you ask me. But I
believe it shows Alderson’s underlying reluctance in trading a potential 30
HR/100 RBI bat. Alderson was looking at the perceived value of an Ike Davis
going forward, not wanting to trade his only real slugger for a couple
mid-level prospect rolls of the dice and getting burned in the process
long-term. He wanted only a top of the line pitching prospect for the former 1st
round draft pick. It also indicates to me that despite their reservations the
team expects Ike to bounce back enough in 2014 to make his return worthwhile.
It also shows how valuable franchises view starting pitching
prospects in this era- going from gold to platinum in value. Every team is
stocking up their system with power arms and potential front-line starters. By
2016 the Brewers will be building their rotation around Thornburg, the Orioles
will add Rodriguez to their dynamic duo of Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman, while
the Pirates would add Kingham to fill out a potentially sick rotation featuring
Gerrit Cole, James Taillon, and Tyler Glasnow. Too say that starting pitching
is at a premium in MLB today is a vast understatement. Almost every team has a
pipeline of arms to build its dream rotation from. Of course many of these
pitchers will flame out, blow out their elbows or shoulders, never develop
effective secondary pitches or just not have what it takes to be a MLB starter.
It’s a risk most teams are willing to take. It’s also a
large reason why Ike Davis is still a Met.
But what of Davis?
The Mets just avoided arbitration with the slugging lefty,
inking a one year $3.5 million deal. He earned $3.125 in 2013. That’s a small
raise and investment for a player who has the potential to deliver an OPS of
900+ and a 3 WAR. Compare that with James Loney, who the Rays signed for 3
years and $21 million. He hasn’t posted an OPS over 900 since 2007 and last
year’s 2.7 WAR tied 2011 for his career high. Even the newly signed 30 year-old
Reynolds will get a base of $2 million in his Brewers deal and he’s never
posted an OPS of 900 and his best WAR of 3.3 was in 2009 with Arizona.
Davis, even with his lackluster 2012-13, has a higher
ceiling than both these 1B. The team is really not risking much with Davis,
either financially or in years. Ike is a wildcard for 2014. He could wind up anywhere
from Comeback Player of the Year to being DFA’d by June 1st or
traded at the deadline. Even so the Mets were wise to overvalue Davis relative
to the market because they didn’t have a lot to lose. That’s why I believe Alderson
held out for the best return possible. It’s a tactic which worked in the
Dickey, Wheeler and Byrd deals. The fact it didn’t with Davis shouldn’t dissuade
him from doing the same in the future.
As for keeping Davis, well they’re not
overpaying him and the team is not tied to him beyond 2014. He could still be
the ideal bridge to Dom Smith. If they could get an OPS of 750+, a WAR between
2.5-3 with a slash line of at least .250/20/75 they’re getting solid value for
their one-year investment in Ike.
9 comments:
Thats right, Sandy has waited team out and when a deal was made he got the prospects he wanted. The same thing will happen if a when he trades Davis. In Sandy we trust.
Greg:
I think all the windows for a Davis trade have closed now.
I think , Ike may be traded at the deadline then you will see Duda come up from AAA .
Flores will be in rhe mix for 1st base at mid season barring any trade of him
Flores im afraid to say is the new Fernando Martinez, sorry.
I could see you calling d'Arnaud the next F-Mart given their injury histories but I don't get the parallel to Flores whose only notable injury was this past season to his ankles. He bounced back to hit what, .400 in the winter league? I think his ankles are healthy.
Exactly right, Reese. And while D was a strength for F-Mart, Flores is still struggling to find a position.
"Struggling to find a position"
I fear he may never find one. He's too slow for 2B, yet his bat does not have enough pop to be anything more than a league average 1B.
His best position may be 3B which is locked up by Wright for another half decade.
Not that I'm saying he'll hit like Miguel Cabrera, but there are times you look at a guy who can drive in runs, swallow hard and say to yourself, "Look, he has to play SOMEWHERE."
In the Mets limited offensive world, he's as close to Cabrera as we get. Hand him a glove and get him in the lineup.
Post a Comment