1/30/14

Mack’s Morning Report – 1-30-14 – Prospects, Stephen Drew, Sully-Chat, Brandon Nimmo, Kevin Plawecki



Coming Up –
11am – D Whit - How the Mets ended up 8th in payroll and 23rd in Wins since 2009 pt. 1

Prospects –

This is because prospects are perfect. Prospects never grow old, never disappoint us, never are sullied with the oppressive and banal expectations of real life. That only happens to them when they become actual Major League Baseball players. Prospects, they're always the same age. I can look at Miguel Sano or Oscar Taveras and imagine them for what I imagine them to be, rather than what they are, or will actually be. It's only later, when the average fan has seen all these players on the field, that prospect rankings are sullied by the drudgery of reality. Now, they're all going to be Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw, and they're all going to change everything. http://www.sportsonearth.com/article/67202234/

Mack – A great article that breaks out the top prospects listed from 1994-2009. They made a special mention of Paul Wilson and Lastings Milledge



I guess we do need to keep going back to Stephen Drew until this finally plays out. There’s around 60 days left before the beginning of spring training which is ample time for Sandy Alderson to deliver a veteran reliever and Drew to round out a progressive off season. The question would be then did the Mets just spend money to appease the fan base and live up to their promise to spend more than they did last year.

It’s no big surprise that the majority of relievers unsigned are veteran retreads that have seen their better days, while the best bats are tied to losing the third round draft pick. A Drew signing bring us back to the question as to if it is worth signing a player you want but only under conditions that doesn’t include the loss of a draft pick.

The Mets are right now to pick at #85 and no one is going to scream off the page this far down the draft. I’m still perplexed why Alderson wouldn’t want to put this position to bed through the 2016 season with a quality player, but past long term burn jobs has, I’m sure’ left him guy shy. What is the alternative here until another light hitting shortstop (Cecchini) comes along in 2017.

And what happened about all these ‘young pitching bargaining chip’ everyone keeps writing about. Even Keith Law had sometime nice to say about the Mets. Christ, I expect Dick Young to come back from the grave and follow up.
Two area of this team are vastly improving… the rotation is becoming a league leader and the team defense is close to Gold Glove status at seven positions. By my count along, the Mets lost eight games the past two years, in late innings, in the field.

You do the math. Turn eight of the losses in the seasons this decade into wins and every one of your teams would have been pennant contender.

Something is still brewing here. I can feel it. 60 days is a lifetime in the free agent/trading game.

Wait his one out folks. I think you’ll be happy with the results of your patience.



Sully-Chat –

Comment From Guest - Keith Law said the Mets have the 6th best farm system. Now I tend not to listen to anything he says, but did this just make him totally uncredible to everyone else?

Jeff Sullivan: You are coming from a position of certain bias, seems like. Think of it less in terms of the ranking, and more in terms of the meaning. He thinks the Mets have a strong, top-third farm system. He’s super qualified to be making these declarations. Other people are going to disagree with him but all input from quality observers has value.

Comment From Grack Zeinke - Dark horse teams for Stephen Drew? A’s, Marlins or Twins?

Jeff Sullivan: I can’t stop coming back to the Blue Jays

Comment From Alan - Drew’s really not that much of an upgrade for the Mets, right? It’s not like Tejada is way below average, and at least he’s got youth on his side.

Jeff Sullivan: Well, so far, Tejada for his career is a little over 1 WAR per 600 plate appearances. Could improve. I don’t think Drew would be a massive upgrade, and the team probably won’t win in 2014, but while you can squint and see Tejada’s upside, you don’t need to squint to see how Drew would be better


Keith Law on Brandon Nimmo

Nimmo was the Mets’ first-round pick in 2011 out of a high school in Wyoming that didn’t have a baseball team, which left him with limited experience, mostly Americal Legion ball and some showcases the summer before his senior year. Despite having several above-average tools, he didn’t have a lot of reps against decent pitching and moved slowly through short-season ball before reaching the hitter’s graveyard of Savannah this season.
He raked away from Savannah (.302/.421/.405) and showed great patience at the plate, a hugely positive marker for a player as inexperienced as he is. Nimmo has great rotation in his swing but can be a little long to the ball because he loads his hands high, behind his left shoulder. He’s a fringe-average defender in center — better with reads than with range — but he’ll be plus in either corner. The main areas for improvement for Nimmo are against left-handed pitchers — against whom he was better this season but still not where he’ll need to be to play every day — and staying healthy, as he had a nagging wrist injury last summer on top of knee surgery in high school.

High-OBP guys with other tools, especially defensive ability, are pretty uncommon, and a healthy Nimmo should be an average to above-average regular by the time he’s 24.


Kevin Plawecki


           The Mets hope they have their catcher of the future in place with Travis d’Arnaud, but Plawecki isn’t a bad option either. In another year or two, Plawecki should be ready to be d’Arnaud’s backup, but he could also step in as the starter if d’Arnaud continues to struggle with injuries. Plawecki is a great receiver and defensive player with plenty of gap power as a hitter, and having him makes the Mets’ future bright behind the plate. 

20 comments:

tommyb said...

Hey Mack

If the Mets do not want to spend big bucks for Drew, would a Montero for Starlin Castro deal make sense for either club. my guess is that sandy wants to ride this pitching wave and not deal it yet, but Cubs need pitching and Rafael is ready.

TP said...

Mack,
I am hard on Alderson, and he deserves it, but your point on the defense is spot on and hasn't been mentioned enough. Drew would improve that even further. Now, I agree with the Met assessment that Drew is flawed and not a difference maker. Personally, I would rather have one of those 4 in Law's top 10 to compete with Tejada. The problem is that those guys would cost Syndy plus.

Lastly, it will be real interesting to see how Nimmo fares in St. Lucie. His performance along with Dominic will have a huge impact on the state of the farm system after TDA, Montero, and Syndy graduate this year.

JHernandez620 said...

Don't be an idiot.

Mack Ade said...

Tommy -

No deal has to be made today.

You can go to camp and see if both John Lannon and Dice-K give you the opportunity to consider breaking up the kids..

For me, I've always been willing to sacrifice 2014 and not lose a great young pitcher like Montero, but he's not one of the 'Big Three' (Harvey, Wheeler, Thor) that are going nowhere.

I would do this deal.

Mack Ade said...

TP -

Let's not forget that Cesar Puello should arrive after the all-star break also. He and Wilmer Flores could find themselves in the post all-star starting lineup by July and this whole dynamic changes.

Anonymous said...

@TommyB

Not sure why you would want Castro. While he has a nice offensive profile capable of hitting .280 with 10 HRs, 30 doubles, 10 triples, and 20 SBs.

He is absolutely horrid as a defensive SS which HAS to be a defense first position. His error count by season is 27, 29, 27, and 22. Fangraphs values him as a negative defender detrimental to a team.

His range is far below average getting to less than 79% of the balls hit to the shortstop's "zone".

For comparisons, Tejada has a range of 83%, has never posted a negative UZR, and has never committed more than 12 errors (17 if you extrapolate it over an entire season.)

Anonymous said...

@TP

Dom and Nimmo are already in K Law's Top 100 so as long as they have average development seasons they should both be in BA's Top 100 next year.

I'm more interested in seeing if Michael Fulmer bounces back and if Stephen Matz pitches another year fully healthy. If both do well you can see both of them get consideration as well.

Also keep an eye on Amed Rosario, Gabriel Ynoa, Dilson Herrera, and Kevin Plawecki.

All of them could also make cases for Top 100 with strong seasons.

Jeff C said...

I would love to see a reality show based on the inner workings of baseball team during the hot stove season. We all enjoy making predictions and giving advice but it would be really interesting to see what actually goes on. Is there a chart or a program in the Mets office that has proposed trades from the Mets and offers from other teams? There was a story today that the Blue Jays almost traded for Kinsler, well what does that mean? Did they have it in place but didn't pull the trigger, were they one player apart? I think it would be fascinating to know what went on. Kind of a General Managers Hardknocks show.
With that in mind, based on Alderson's history I'm sure there are potential offers out on several fronts. He is very deliberate and very definite in what he feels the value of a deal is. I agree with Mack that something is potentially brewing, but if it happens who knows.

Mack Ade said...

Making trades happen in so many ways.

The movie "Money Ball" pretty much spelled out how it works most of the time.

You talk, talk, talk to everyone you can, listening to everyone who is calling you and asking you for one of your players, or an agent or GM telling you they have someone for you.

At the same time, you let it known (usually through beat reporter channels) what your needs are.

All of baseball knows that the Mets only want a SS and RP right now. They also know the Mets are not going to spend wildly.

The other GMs and agents are determining whether their players become a Met.

The 'wild money' is still out there for 4 pitchers and maybe Cruz...

Trust me... Saturday is Feb 1... every FA relief pitcher will be warming up somewhere.

bill metsiac said...

Mack--We hear a lot about Tejada, Duda, and Flores going to Fitness Camp. Is there any about what actually goes on there?

IMO that'd make a good reality show in Hot Stove season.

tommyb said...

Thanks, Chris. i have not followed Starlin that closely, and was unaware he is defensively deficient - wonder if it is correctable? Sounds like it is not?

If they did a reality show, they could call it "Fitness Protection Program." Hopefully, they had all 3 watch Richard Sherman video and imitate him, to give them more attitude and swagger. Duda, Tejada, and Flores all seem soft and nice to a fault.

Mack Ade said...

Bill -

Good morning, Bill.

It would actually, but, like most other things the Mets do, they stay pretty private.

Think of the 'camp' as a place to keep the 'eaters' out of trouble and under the watch of paid trainers.

I wouldn't eve be surprsied if they don't let these guys go home before going straight from the training facility in Detroit to the airport for a flight to Orlando.

KC said...

What 7 positions are the Mets "near Gold Glove"?

Anonymous said...

Gold Glove Caliber Players right now are:

3B- David Wright
LF- Chris Young
CF- Juan Lagares

Anonymous said...

Granderson in RF would be Gold Glove Caliber. In addition, people used to rave about Davis's defense at first.

TP said...

TDA is also considered to have plus defensive skills at his position. Maybe

1B - Ike
3B - DW
C - TDA
LF - C Young, EYjr
CF - Lagares
RF - Grandy

That is six plus fielders, although Ike needs to re-establish his glove. Murph is a minus (althoug imporved) and Tejada is a minus to even based on which Ruben shows up. Adding Drew would give them a 7th plus guy. As Mack said, collectively that is significant.

kc13 said...

d'arnaud threw out Chase Utley stealing, is that what makes him good defensively? He didn't show much, in the little time he was her,e to make me believe he's a plus defensive catcher.
Ike Davis is awful, can't even get in front of a groundball. Not to mention he quits on foul pops when he gets anywhere near the stands.
Eric Young has a very weak arm and can't catch anything that's over his head.
David Wright may have the weakest arm of any third sacker in the league. That sidearm throw is painful to watch, especially after he taps his glove 6 times.
Grandy and Young close to GG? Fact or hope? Do either of them have good enough arms to play RF? We'll see.
Lagares is the only GGer on this team, or even close to GGer.

Mack Ade said...

KC -

Wow... that's a mouthful.

David Wright???

kc13 said...

Yes, David Wright, his arm is not good. He's vastly improved defensively from where he was years ago, but his arm is lacking and it cost the Mets several times last year.

Anonymous said...

@KC13

David's arm is lacking? What games have you been watching?

If anything Wright has at worse an above average arm.

I guess you missed this throw

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FHTXHnJJXUM&feature=player_detailpage