1/21/14

Mack’s Morning Report – 1-21-14 - 2006 Draft, Wilmer Flores, Salaries, Nick Franklin

Coming up today - 

10am - Herb G - Alex Rodriguez - What Might Have Been

12pm - Reese Kaplan - Shuffling the Cards:  A Pre-Spring Training Look at the 25-Man Roster

2pm - Mack Ade - Some Additional Discussions on the Wilpons and Sandy Alderson
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Congrats go out to Mr. and Mrs. John Church who tied the knots on Saturday. On hand to join John and Kayla were Darin Gorski,  Jake deGrom,  Jeff Walters, Jack Leathersich, Brandon Sage, and Robbie Shields.

-We continue to look at the draft years of 2000-2007 for the NL East teams. Specifically, we break out the players chosen in the top three rounds and an overall assessment of success (sic) in choosing players in the draft.
2006 –

Mets  -          
            #2       P          Kevin Mulvey         27-IP, 0-3, 7.90
            #3       P          Joe Smith                 379-IP, 27-16, 2.97
            Five of the 49 players drafted made it to the MLB level
            Only two (Smith, Daniel Murphy) had any success at that level

Florida –
            #1       P          Brett Sinkbell         2-IP, 13.50
            #1       3B       Chris Coghlan         1,419-AB, .270, 117-RBI
            #2       CF       Thomas Hickman  career ended at the A+ level
            #3       C          Torey Langley         career ended at the AA level
            10 of the 51 players drafted made it to the MLB level
            Two (Coghlan, Dave Williams) had any success at that level

Nats –
            #1       OF       Chris Marrero        125-AB, .232
            #1       P          Colton Willems      career ended at the A+ level
            #2       P          Sean Black               pitched AA last season
            #2       SS        Stephen Englund   career ended at A level
            #3       SS        Stephen King          career ended at the AA level
            Three out of 52 players made it to the major league level
            One (Brad Peacock) has had success at this level

Atlanta –
            #1       OF       Cody Johnson         career ended at the AAA level
            #1       P          Cory Ramus             22-IP, 5.40
            #1       P          Steven Evarts         career ended at the A level
            #2       P          Jeff Locke                 217-IP, 11-13, 4.06
            #2       P          Dustin Evans           career ended at the AA level
            #2       SS        Chase Fontaine      career ended at the A+ level
            #3       P          Chad Rodgers         career ended at the A+ level
            Four of the 54 players drafted made it to the major league level
            Three (Ramus, Locke, Kris Medlen) have had any success at that level

Philadelphia –
            #1       P          Kyle Drabek             169-IP, 8-15, 5.37
            #1       SS        Adrian Cardenas               60-AB, .183
            #2       P          Drew Carpenter                 33-IP, 1-1, 7.56
            #3       SS        Jason Donald                      552-AB, .257
            Six of the 51 players drafted made it to the major league level
            Four (Drabek, Donald, Quinton Berry, Domonic Brown) had any success at that level
           
 257 ballplayers were drafted in 2006 by the NL East teams
 28 made it to the MLB level -  10.9%
Only 12 had success at that level   -  4.7%


There’s been some difference of opinion on Wilmer Flores:

Anonymous – “Flores will be in rhe mix for 1st base at mid season barring any trade of him”

            Greg B – “Flores – I’m afraid to say is the new Fernando Martinez, sorry.”

Reese – “I could see you calling d'Arnaud the next F-Mart given their injury histories but I don't get the parallel to Flores whose only notable injury was this past season to his ankles. He bounced back to hit what, .400 in the winter league? I think his ankles are healthy”

Now, you all know how I hate to get into projecting what a player is going to do. There’s enough of you that do that well and I like to stay behind the stats that have already been produced.

Regarding Flores, I can tell you a few things:

            -he hit .321/.357/.531/.887 at the AAA level in 2013

            -he did it as one of the youngest players in the history of AAA ball

            -he also did it drug free

-he has no history of injuries other than twisting his ankle last year as a Met

            -he will play 2014 as a 22-year old.

The Mets aren’t saying anything about who is going to play where. That will all begin when the majority of players report to camp. Frankly, only Flores and a couple of coaches may know if he should bring his first baseman mitt to camp.
I thought he would be gone in a trade, but he’s not. I then thought he’s replace Daniel Murphy after Murph was traded, but that didn’t happen either. Now, what compounds this even more is the fact that Ike Davis hasn’t been moved out. We still have to find homes for him, Lucas Duda, Brandon Allen, and Alan Dykstra.
I have no idea who plays where yet, but I can’t classify Flores in the same boat with F-Mart. Martinez was just a… well, he was a flop. Flores is far from that at this point in his career and, injury wise, this is no Reese Havens either.


Salaries –

In the good old days, increases in salaries were driven by multiple leagues. The rise of the American Association in 1882, the Union Association in 1884 and Players League in 1890 caused brief spikes in salaries, and when the AA disbanded and the stronger teams absorbed into the National League in 1892, salaries plummeted. The graph doesn't show it, but a similar run-up in salaries occurred with the formation of the American League in 1901 and the Federal League in 1914, with similar drops after those leagues were either accepted or disbanded.

Free agency changed this in the mid-1970s, along with aggressive owners like George Steinbrenner willing to bid up the price to acquire talent. I'm sure it's been written about, but I wonder if Steinbrenner could have been Steinbrenner without the ability to spend as freely as he did. He became an owner in 1973, just before the free agency era, so we'll never know. http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2014/1/20/5315326/mlb-salary-trends

Mack – This is a great article on salary trends over the history of baseball (I still remember the day everyone in my household went nuts when they announced that Mickey Mantle was given a contract for $100,000)… check it out


Jeff C asked -

Do you think Nick Franklin can play Major League defense at SS? He certainly has the bat and with Cano going to Seattle they have an excess with Franklin and Miller. If he could play SS, what do you think it would cost the Mets to get him? Is Montero a good starting point?

Mack – Franklin has had some defensive limitations, both at shortstop and second base. As for his bat, it still is in the development stage and hitting .225 last year should not be the kind of player the Mets should be looking at.

            BP scouting report in 2013:

No matter where he plays in the field Franklin is a bat-first player. He is limited at shortstop, offering only modest range and an arm that earns below-average to fringe-average grades. He has decent hands and solid instincts but they are not enough to make him a palatable defender on the left side of the infield long term. If he is shifted to second base permanently, a position he has played extensively in the minor leagues, Franklin could be an average defender with an average arm for the position. Offensively, Franklin stands out for his ability to make consistent hard contact and drive the ball to all fields. He has a line-drive swing that will max out with 15-18 home runs a year, but should also generate 30-plus doubles at his peak. Franklin’s swing is simple and compact from the left side, allowing him to work counts and hit for a high average. From the right side, Franklin’s swing has a tendency to get long, adding more miss to his game and resulting in less punch. Franklin projects as an above average to plus hitter with good power and the ability to steal 10-15 bases a year thanks to average speed and decent base running instincts. Franklin will need time to adjust to major-league pitching but once he settles in he should be a solid everyday option for the Mariners.

MLB Prospect Watch –

While that would be unfortunate for most players (Cano signing), it may be a good thing for Franklin.  As a left-handed hitter with moderate power (below average by major league standards but above-average for a second baseman), Safeco Field was a terrible fit for him.  As you can see by his spray chart below, almost all of his power was to the pull side.  Safeco Park is not friendly to left-handed hitters, and there were at least three fly ball outs that Franklin hit that would have been a home run at many other parks.

Franklin could see a solid boost in his power numbers if he can get out of Safeco.  He hit 12 home runs in 102 games, for a 19-homer pace.  Getting out of Safeco and into a more hitter-friendly park coupled with no longer being rookie should put him in the 20-25 home run range.  You can't expect a hundred point jump in batting average, but Franklin also shouldn't be a .225 hitter over the course of his career.  Put all these minor improvements together and you have a nice little second baseman.

As of now, Franklin is still a Mariner, and there's a chance they could hold on to him and turn him into a utility player.  More likely, however, is that in the Mariners continued effort to go for it this season, they flip Franklin to a team for whom he has more value.  Franklin's days as an everyday second baseman are over, but the Cano signing probably increases the odds that he makes it as an everyday player at all.


As for Rafael Montero, I think the addition of, first, Bartolo Colon, and now, John Lannan, makes Montero the lead dog in any trade talks for anyone at any position. It’s obvious that Noah Syndergard and Matt Harvey will be part of the 2015 Mets rotation. You can’t pitch everyone here and someone has to go. It seems to me that Montero would bring you the best return.

6 comments:

tommyb said...

let me add one more vote for Flores. He had a very weak April, then crushed the next 4 months last year to get to his final AAA #'s...all to say he is likely better than his full season #'s, which were pretty darned good.

Flores only got his # 10 rank because of his getting a 20 for speed - no one else in the top 10 had any # below 40. He had the best hit composite #'s of top 10. So hopefully we see him at 1B soon, and manning it until Dom Smith arrives.

I am OK with Montero going as long as they can use him for a major SS upgrade.

Mack, love the draft updates - it DOES show how difficult it is to pick successful big leaguers. That said, since the draft started, the Mets have to be one of the worst teams in producing offensive players via the draft. Maybe with Cecchini, Nimmo, and Smith that is about to change. They have certainly done OK with pitchers over time.

Unknown said...

Yes great write up daily about the draft, can't believe how low the % is in just making it to the big show... Wow...
I also love Flores #'s from last year and his 1st week up was something really special. Unfortunately he got hurt and couldn't continue to show us what he could do. I believe he has knack for driving in runs and could be a great middle of the order hitter with 15-20 hr potential. I think he can be our 2nd basemen for a long time.

tommyb said...

Hi John

I think he has more power potential than that...I would not be surprised to see him approach 30 one year.

Hey Mack...an article idea for ya: will Ike become the next Nate Colbert, and could Duda become the next Jim Hickman?

Nate while very young had two 38 HR years in super-cavernous San Diego stadium - then his hitting collapsed, starting in 1974 at just age 28, and retired at 30.

Hickman played, less than full time mostly from 1962-1969, and if you averaged those seasons into 500 official at bats, you'd have gotten utterly mediocre results - about 17 HR, 58 RBI, and .235 - but in 1970, in 515 at bats, he had 33 doubles, 32 HR, 115 RBI, and hit .315 with a .419 on base %. Could Duda suddenly wake up this year and break through like that?

So - I am curious if over time there might be other examples of guys you might highlight who looked promising early and collapsed and never recovered, and guys who were utterly mediocre, and then had a huge breaktrhough offensively (such as Chris Davis last year).

Mack Ade said...

Tommy -

Personally, I'm trying to stay away from any discussion about Ike/Duda, and Stephen Drew until spring training is over.

BTW... I've been told that other Latin shortstops that are still looking for a home have told their agents to avoid the Mets. They don't want to be part of a pissing contest with Tejada.

And... the whole Boras, Alderson, Drew thing has really gone south.

You are going to see Duda and Davis play almost exclusive first base in spring training while Flores waits his turn

That Adam Smith said...

With regard to Flores, I think that when a prospect has been around (been talked about) seemingly forever, people begin looking for reasons why he won't make it. I've seen nothing offensively from this kid to indicate that he's anything short of a gifted hitter. I see a .300+ bat, with a very solid OBA, lots of RBI and 20+ HR potential. Where does he play? Well, at this point, I'd take him at 1B in a heartbeat, though I think the Mets are probably right - given Flores' age - to give Ike and Duda another shot before pushing them aside for him. But that bat, until it proves to me that it's not what it looks like, definitely plays SOMEWHERE, and soon.

Herb G said...

I am so up in the air on Flores. You have to love his bat, but his defensive limitations make him a player without a position. We really don't know whether he will work at 1B. Even that position requires some agility. I have always felt he is so much better suited to a career in the AL, and that a trade was imminent. And yet, I love his bat.

I've thought long and hard about Nick Franklin, hoping that Seattle would like him at SS and be willing to part with Brad Miller. But it seems that ain't going to happen. I'm not a Didi Gregorius fan, and I doubt the D-Backs will part with Chris Owings. With the Rangers trading Desmond, it seems to take Andrus or Profar out of the mix. I just don't see us getting a young, quality SS via trade in the near future. Seems we'll just have to wait for 2014/2015 free agency.

That may be all for the best, since I really do not want to trade Montero, and holding onto Flores until we see the 1B situation resolved isn't the worst thing in the world.