Mack’s Morning Report – 1-17-14 - 2003 Draft, Eno-Chat, Cesar Puello

-We continue to look at the draft years of 2000-2007 for the NL East teams. Specifically, we break out the players chosen in the top three rounds and an overall assessment of success (sic) in choosing players in the draft.

2003 –

Mets  -          

            #1       OF       Lastings Milledge             1,500-AB, .269

            Four of 48 players made it to the majors

            Two (Milledge, Brian Bannister) had success at that level

Florida -       

            #1       P          Jeff Allison               career ended at the AA level

            #2       P          Logan Kensing        162-IP, 8-9, 5.79

            #3       SS        Jonathan Fulton    career ended at the AA level

            Three out of 50 players made it to the majors

            Only Kensing had (limited) success at that level

Montreal -  

            #1       P          Chad Cordero         330-IP, 12-SV, 20-15, 2.89

            #2       OF       Jerry Owens                        393-AB, .262

            #3       OF       Kory Casto               217-AB, .194

            Seven of the 50 players made it to the majors

            Three (Cordero, Owens, Jim Henderson) had success at this level

Atlanta -    

 

            #1       P          Luis Atilano             6-7, 5.15, 86-IP

            #1       C          Jarrod Saltamacchia        2,001-AB, .246, 275-AB

            #2       P          Jo-Jo Reyes              335-IP, 12-26, 6.05

            #2       P          Paul Bacot               career ended at the A level

            #3       P          Jake Stevens           career ended at the AAA level

            #3       P          Matt Harrison        635-IP, 48-32, 4.15

            Seven of the 53 players drafted made it to the majors

            Four (Salty, Reyes, Harrison, Jonny Ventors) had success at this level

Philadelphia –

            #3       2B       Tim Ross                   career ended at the AA level

            Three of the 48 players made it to the majors

            All three (Michael Bourn, Kyle Kendrick, Brad Ziegler) had success at this level

249 ballplayers were drafted in 2003 by the NL East teams

24 made it to the MLB level -  9.6%

Only 13 had success at that level   -  5.2%

MLB Prospect Watch: Top 10 right-handed pitchers -

3. Noah Syndergaard, Mets: In exchange for sending National League Cy Young Award winner R.A. Dickey to the Blue Jays in December 2012, the Mets may have gotten a pair of future All-Stars in Syndergaard and catcher Travis d'Arnaud. Few prospects can match Syndergaard's combination of stuff and pitchability. He keeps his fastball down in the strike zone and runs it up to 98 mph, and his hard curveball and changeup have the potential to become solid or better pitches. http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article/mlb/archie-bradley-atop-mlbcoms-list-of-top-10-right-handed-pitching-prospects?ymd=20140115&content_id=66536832&vkey=news_mlb

Mack – We’re going to keep reading a lot about Syndergaard this season. He’s a legitimate top 10 major league prospect and everybody wants a piece of him before he comes to Queens.

Eno Chat –

            Comment From EGL - Our league has a lot of sidebets on this one. Gattis or D’Arnard for 2014 ?

Eno Sarris: I’ll take Gattis unless you’re in an OBP league. I think TDA will be an excellent real-life catcher — he’s a great framer, good defensively, will take some walks, have a bit of power — but I think he’s also probably in the scrum with the .260/15-20 guys with the bat. Gattis is old, has no projection, isn’t great at plate discipline, but he has a lot more power, and I think he can manage a .250 batting average.

Comment From Grack Zeinke - Yesterday, DC said he would pursue a deal for Didi Gregorius if he were the Mets. You haven’t once embraced that idea whenever it’s come up. Any new thoughts there regarding SS for the Mets? Again, I just see no way the Snakes are going to carry 3 shortstops on their OD roster. They can move Owings to AAA but that won’t be any more than a temporary move. Sandy, your move.

Eno Sarris: Hold on… I said it’s fine. I just want to know the price. Is it Syndergaard-plus? It took Bauer to get Didi, and he’ll remember that. I absolutely want the Mets to talk to the D-backs, and get the cheapest guy back.

Comment From Grack Zeinke - re: Didi, obviously the Mets aren’t dealing Noah. The price being a top ten pitching prospect bc it took Bauer to acquire Didi doesn’t make that the price now. Prices are a function of market forces. DBacks can either hold out for a steep price and wind up not making a deal and having a SS glut on their roster or take a deal that they can make. Towers does’t appear to be the type to hold out just on principal.

Eno Sarris: So, fine. I like it. It’s all about cost. And yes, Towers actually seems the opposite: ready to jettison players he’s soured on. So it’s a chance for arbitrage.

Comment From Grack Zeinke - estimates for Chris Young’s season? Do you think he has a 20-20 season in him? if so, do you thing the Mets make a QO? do you think there is a *handshake deal* that he’ll turn down a QO?

Eno Sarris: No. I think he’ll mostly platoon with other Young. Maybe play 50% of the time.

Comment From Grack Zeinke - if CYoung is just going to platoon then what was point of the Mets signing him at all, more importantly not getting at least an option for another year or two if he has a renaissance year?

Eno Sarris: True. That’s why I had him over 50%. He might start the season as more of an every-day guy to see if he could return a draft pick, but I’m not sure he’s really good enough anymore to get to that level.

Mack – Do you actually sign someone and pay them $7mil to play a half a season before trading them? Can I hear a big BTF?

John Looby asked -

I'd like to pick your brain on Cesar Puello. I'll admit, I'm excited. To me, he has all the skills to be a top notch major leaguer. Plate discipline seems to be the only area where he can come unstuck. Hopefully the PED saga doesn't way him down. There will be doubters until he reproduces last season's numbers. Fair enough. He put himself in this position, now he needs to work his way through. Do you see him as our RF of the future? What do you think his ceiling is?

            Mack – Hey John.

First thing that needs to be understood… Puello was never tested. He was guilty ‘by association’ for having a ‘relationship’ with the Biogenesis clinic.

Secondly, and most important, his involvement with Biogenesis was during 2012, not his excellent 2013.

Still, doubters will hang him by his jonnies until he does it again while being tested clean.

Yes, I do believe he will be the Mets rightfielder of the future. I also see him as a future leadoff hitter (people forget he was 5^th in steals in the SAL in 2010). The power burst last year makes one wonder but I don’t see him as a future power source. Puello is wonderful fielder, with a cannon for an arm and is one of the better base runners in the system. He also will only turn 23 on opening day.

There’s no rush here and you might as well let him feast on the lack of air in Vegas while they keep making him piss in a cup.

This is my wild card. I expect Puello to force a sale of Chris Young around the all-star break for a team controlled prospect.

What the Mets need to do is begin to realize that they are going to have three superstar starters on this team that need to be contracted for at least the remainder of this decade. The cost of Matt Harvey, Zack Wheeler, and Noah Syndergaard could easily total $60-70mil a year.

The Mets need to develop their talent and, once recognized, pay them accordingly. Players like Puello can help them reach these goals.