4/19/14

Morning Report – 4-19-14 – Ike Davis, Matt Bowman, Eno-Chat, Player Movement

1952 Polo Grounds 


Coming Up –

        10 am –  Reese Kaplan - Trader Sandy Rolls The Dice  

         12 noon – Mrs. Mack's Shortbread

           2 pm -   Top 10 1B in 2014 MLB Draft - revised 4-17-14

           5pm -  Sean Newcomb, Mike Papi, Nick Gordon, Scott Hurst, Jeremy Vasquez

          8pm –  OF - Scott Hurst - Bishop Amat (CA) HS



You're going to read different opinions here on the Ike Davis trade. That's how this web site works. It's a home for independent Mets writers to express what they think about the team, the players, and the organization.

My thoughts on this trade are pretty simply.

First, I'm thrilled it clears up the mess called 'who's on first'. Whether you like it or not, Lucas Duda is now the Mets first baseman.

I love the deal for the return. Davis wasn't contributing anything to this team... again... and Thornton brings an immediate arm that can be inserted into the Las Vegas pen (assuming that is what they do).

Yes, there is another player to be added to this deal, but I'm happy even if it was Davis for Thorny one-for-one. He's been a strikeout machine for the past two seasons and the 26-year old its in perfectly with the kind of bullpen the Mets are trying to build.

I wish Davis well, but he was not a successful New York Met. 



The Mets have the best win percentage for minor league teams - 67%


The (current) longest amount of successful stolen bases in the majors is 24... by Daniel Murphy



OF Charlie Thurber, who didn't come out of extended c amp this spring, posted on Facebook:

                "It looks like my career may be taking a new path onto the                      mound as a pitcher...



Baseball America was not kind to 1B Dominic Smith:


The Mets erred on the side of caution with first-round prep position players Brandon Nimmo and Gavin Cecchini, sending both to short-season Brooklyn the year after they signed. New York took a different approach with Smith, the 11th pick in last year’s draft, assigning him to low Class A Savannah and watching him demonstrate that an adjustment period is in order. The sweet-swinging 18-year-old kept the strikeouts in check this week (four in seven games) but went just 2-for-25 (.080) with one walk. Smith also started slow last year before catching fire, and keep in mind the fact that Savannah is the most extreme pitcher’s park in the full-season minors.


Binghamton RHSP Matt Bowman stepped up big time Thursday night and has now added his name to what seems like the countless  SP prospects in this organization.

Bowman was a 13th round Sandy-pick in 2012, out of Princeton University. Weather limited Princeton’s baseball season so Bowman only pitched in 25 games (20 starts). The stats weren’t there (5.05 ERA as a sophomore; 4.66 as a junior), but the Mets picked him as a shortstop first (.306 in 2011; .308 in 2012) with the possibility of converting to a pitcher.

That changed immediately when he got to Brooklyn and came out of the pen to complete the 2012 season (12-G, 2-2, 2.45).

I met the 6-1 Bowman briefly when he was in Savannah (2013). He blew through here in five starts (4-0, 2.64) and was promoted because of A+ injuries. The Mets liked him from the get-go and he was a particular favorite of Frank Viola. Obvious, he was intelligent (father was a Harvard grad) and approached this game from a level far greater than most of his teammates. He attended the 2013 STEP program where he worked on his changeup. He also added a spitter to go along with his low-90s fastball, curve, and slider.

Think Dillon Gee with higher SAT scores. 

ETA: Hard to say. Like many other Mets minor league starters, there doesn’t seem to be any room for Bowman in a future Mets rotation. That makes him either a trade chip or a future bullpen candidate.

I don’t expect the Mets to rush him to Las Vegas this year because everybody ahead of him is still backed up. No, the dam will release some water when Noah Syndergaard and Rafael Montero head north. That would leave two openings in the AAA rotation for either Hansel Robles, Darin Gorski, Rainy Lara, or Bowman.

Past that, let’s just say he is targeted to pitch at the major league level in 2016… somewhere for someone.


Eno-Chat –

       Comment From Bill - I’m a mets fan in Brooklyn who cut cable this year…i now watch every game but my own team. Is this what purgatory is?

Eno Sarris: Hah. Pay for cable in 2015 maybe.

Comment From Kyle - Long term, do you like d’Arnaud or Mesoraco better offensively?

Eno Sarris: Mes.

Comment From @CaliforniaJag - Who are the best steals and SP prospects in the minors that might make an impact this year?

Eno Sarris: Giolito, Syndergaard…. Marisnick?  Steals in minors kinda barren right now.


Player Movement –

       It’s past mid-April now and we’ve got our first taste from the players that are producing top numbers at the current level they are playing at.

       One of the fun things about following the minors is watching (and guessing) when they are promoted and seeing how they do at the next level.

       There’s nothing etched in stone here, but the Mets do try and follow a plan of not moving one of their key players until just prior to the all-star game of the level they were playing at since the beginning of the year (I don’t think the Mets care about the whole all-star game thing).

       There also seems to be an unwritten rule for starters. You’re not going to see them promoted until they produce in the 8-10 starts range. This is just smart baseball and gives the team the proper time needed to evaluate the overall talent of the player.

       There are exceptions, like the one mentioned in the Bowman piece above. Sometimes, a player on the level above someone goes on the DL and decisions have to be made. No one particularly likes when this happens, but they are unavoidable.

       Last thing I want to talk about on this subject…

       Every organization has certain players that are considered ‘special’. Special usually means they aren’t going to be rushed under any condition.

       Forget players at the AAA level. They have already climbed the mountain.

       The ‘special’ players the Mets have below AAA are Steven Matz, Michael Fulmer, Dominic Smith (though I will say the move to start him at the A-level looks like a bad one), Dilson Herrera, Amed Rosario, Kevin Plawecki, and Brandon Nimmo. There are others close to this level (Cecchini, Lawley, a bunch of starters), but the real special guys are the ones I have listed.

       I actually think the first player to be ‘moved up’ will be OF Darrell Cecilliani, but that move would be made because of a need in Vegas for another outfielder.

       I expect no additional movement this year for Smith. He needs to settle in to ‘the grind’ and learn how to play ‘long-term baseball’.

       The tempting ones seem to be Plawecki, Matz, and Nimmo. I can tell you after following this over the years that there never is a pattern here. None of us are coaching these kids every day and we have no way of determining if they are ready for the next step, both talent wise and mentally


First Basemen in the System:


                    G AB R H HR RBI BA OBP SLUG OPS
MLB Lucas Duda 14 40 7 11 3 8 0.275 0.341 0.5 0.841
Ike Davis 12 24 4 5 1 5 0.208 0.367 0.375 0.742
Josh Satin 6 12 0 2 0 2 0.167 0.231 0.333 0.564
AAA Alan Dykstra 11 28 6 12 1 11 0.429 0.579 0.75 1.329
Eric Campbell 14 58 18 19 2 11 0.328 0.409 0.517 0.926
AA  Matt Clark 11 36 8 14 4 11 0.389 0.489 0.833 1.322
Jayce Boyd 10 40 6 6 0 4 0.15 0.209 0.25 0.459
A+ T.J. Rivera 12 50 10 19 2 14 0.38 0.426 0.6 1.026
Brandon Allen 1 4 1 1 0 0 0.25 0.4 0.25 0.65
Aderlin Rodriguez 14 59 5 12 0 10 0.203 0.242 0.305 0.547
A Matt Oberste 5 16 1 4 0 1 0.25 0.294 0.313 0.607
Dominic Smith 14 52 3 8 0 0 0.154 0.17 0.154 0.324

13 comments:

Tom Brennan said...

If the guy that they got for Ike is promising, it I'd a good deal. Looking on that 1B list, plenty of guys coming, and if they needed someone soon, Campbell is choice #1 (on base 4X last nite) or Dykstra. Fulmer in elite list: he got annihilated again last nite, hopefully he is just struggling and not becoming Brad Holt.

Amazing progression for Bowman. I did not know Mets were considering him for SS when signed. It will be interesting to see if he can track along like Montero has.

And a shout out to TJ Rivera, who has done nothing but hit for this org. I wonder if he could be a Jeff Keppinger.

Tom Brennan said...

One more note...Dom Smith not hitting, but Ks are low, so perhaps he will bust out any day now.

Ernest Dove said...

So now that Duda is entrenched as the 'guy', should he also be moved back to the cleanup spot?
I understand the reasoning behind not benching Grandy, but its getting a little ridiculous at this point. Murphy is looking good. Wright is coming on strong, but every inning comes to screaching hault every time Grandy steps to the plate.

Bob Sugar said...

Guys,
Is it reasonable to think that Pitt would trade their #1 pick in 2013 Austin Meadows for Ike Davis? Seems to big of a piece to give up for Ike but it would be sweet for us to get that level of a prospect. Not sure significant piece means recent #1 pick

That Adam Smith said...

I'm sorry to see Ike go, and I have a feeling he'll finally really blossom in Pittsburgh (which I hear is becoming a pretty cool town to live in.) My guy tells me to trust that Sandy got someone good, or at least very promising, as the PTBNL, so I'll withhold judgement. It'll be interesting to see if Duda can reward the organization's faith in him, or if he'll be gone too by mid-2015.

That Adam Smith said...

Err, "my gut tells me".

Michi L. said...

Cant imagine its Meadows. He was the nr. 9 pick last year and the pirates rejected a trade involving kickham so why should they trade their 3rd best prospect!? But if its true and its Meadows the Mets have a future OF of Puello, Meadows and Nimmo. Not bad!

Michi L. said...

Although Pittsburgh have a very deep OF. Marte and Cutchen are not going anywhere soon and Polanco is ready to go!

Robb said...

Im not sure who they got back in return, Id love it to be Meadow, Id like it to the 2nd round ss. either way as long as it feels like they got something of value then good. no one wants anything but for Ike to go hit the ball hard in Pitts. He has always seemed like a good guy who needed the change of scenery. Maybe he'll kill the ball there, it will turn out to be meadows and everyone will feel ok from both sides.

I dont mind helping a team like Pitts be better, i kind of like it. we arent good at the moment, nor do we portend to be. But for now, d'A is my catcher, duda is my 1b, murphy is the 2b, wright is my 3b, grandy is my right fielder and hopefully Lagares is my CF when he's healthy. thats is. move forward.

Mack Ade said...

Ernest -

My vote would be to move Grandy out of the cleanup spot also.

Mack Ade said...

Who is the person that told Chris about Austin Meadows?

Was this a legitimate source like Adam Rubin?

Mack Ade said...

Sugar -

It is extremely hard for me to believe that the PTBNL will be Meadows.

Tom Brennan said...

I hope they do not move Grandy from the clean up spot....he is really keeping the clubhouse clean, and plenty of towels. I'd leave him in the clean up spot - in Las Vegas. They'd have to hire another clubhouse attendant, which would add to overhead.

Sorry - just tired of the "struggling Met with a huge contract with a huge portion remaining" narrative.

Hey Grandy, make me look like another silly, over-reactive Met fan by going on a tear. I dare you.